From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, June 01, 2020 6:36:16 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 06/01/20

PDF attached

 

US
weather looks good this week with heat aiding corn.  Black Sea region will see more rain.  China asked state owned companies to halt purchases of US soybeans and pork, but China ended up buying US soybeans.  There was also talk China may cancel pork purchases. 
Many countries in Europe were on holiday. 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:
 U.S.
crop weather should be mostly good this week with warmer temperatures and less rain occurring to spur on faster crop development while stimulating late season planting. Timely rainfall will become very important later in June.  A close watch on the tropics,
near the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Campeche, is warranted this week where a tropical cyclone may evolve later this week and could move toward the United States.

           
China weather is a concern in some of the dry areas in east-central parts of the nation, although up until now the dryness has been great for promoting aggressive spring planting. Limited rainfall over the next ten days will raise concern over crop development
and the region will need to be closely monitored. Northeastern China may be a little wetter than usual for a while slowing some of its planting.

           
India’s monsoon is expected to perform well this year, although initial rainfall will be erratic over the next ten days.

           
Oil palm and coconut production in Southeast Asia looks to be advancing normally with little change likely.

           
Canola planting is moving along in Australia, but there is need for greater rainfall in many areas. There is plenty of time for the greater rain to fall, however.

           
Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop is finishing favorably after rain fell during the weekend before last, but some production cut did occur earlier this month because of dryness especially in eastern production areas.

           
Argentina’s harvest is moving along well as is South Africa’s harvest.

           
Most of Eastern Europe’s crop weather has improved with recent rainfall, although the precipitation came a little late to seriously turn around winter rapeseed production. Corn, sunseed and soybean planting should be advancing well with favorable emergence,
but warming is needed to stimulate better crop development from Eastern Europe into the western CIS.

           
Rapeseed production will be down in Western Europe because of poor weather last autumn and earlier this spring, but corn, soybean and sunseed planting and establishment will be largely dependent on weather in the next few weeks. Northern France, the U.K. and
northwestern Germany need some moisture already.

           
Overall, weather today is likely to have a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
 Frost
and freezes in eastern Canada’s Prairies and in a part of Ontario and Quebec, Canada during the weekend had no significant impact on coarse grain, oilseeds or canola. Dryness remains a worry in parts of eastern Saskatchewan and west-central Manitoba, although
rain is expected by this time next week. Western Alberta is still too wet and moving slowly in its spring planting.

           
U.S. northern Plains spring wheat planting and emergence should be advancing well, although parts of the region (mostly in North Dakota) are becoming too dry and this week’s heat and dryness will exacerbate the situation. Timely rain should come along for
this region next week.

           
U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will be experience net drying this week, despite a few showers and thunderstorms because of very warm to hot temperatures. However, much of the crop has reproduced and is filling with crops in the south maturing.
The limited rainfall and heat will stress a few crops, but Nebraska and northern Kansas crops are most immature while having the best soil moisture. The bottom line to net drying is not expected to be very great on crop conditions or production, although maturation
will be rushed.

           
U.S. soft wheat conditions in the Midwest will improve with this week’s decreasing rain frequency and rising temperatures.  Dryness in the northwestern states remains a concern and weekend heat did not help the situation.

           
Northwestern Europe dryness will continue a concern for this week. Crops elsewhere in Europe and the western CIS will experience a more favorable mix of weather, although production will not be restored in areas that had inclement conditions last autumn and
earlier this spring to harm production.

           
China’s winter wheat crop is rated favorably, although drying now may be stressing a few of the more immature crops. Spring crops are favorably moist and expected to perform well.

           
India’s harvest should be complete and Australia’s planting of small grains as advanced well. There is still need for greater rain in many of Australia’s winter crop areas. Queensland, northern and western New South Wales and parts of South Australia and northern
Western Australia crop areas need more rain. South Africa and western Argentina also need more rain.

           
Overall, weather today will likely contribute a mixed influence on market mentality with a bullish bias.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
June 1:

  • International
    Coffee Organization to hold virtual meeting of International Coffee Council, June 1-5
  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly market balance outlook
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Honduras
    and Costa Rica May Coffee Exports
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for May 1-31
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Brazil
    soybean exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Germany, Italy, Belgium, New Zealand

TUESDAY,
June 2:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data (delayed because of holiday)

WEDNESDAY,
June 3:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly forecast on crop output, supply and demand
  • EARNINGS:
    Tereos

THURSDAY,
June 4:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • FAO
    world food price index, 4am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
June 5:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-5

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
499,353     versus  350000-600000           range

Corn         
1,128,091  versus  800000-1200000         range

Soybeans  
396,387     versus  350000-600000           range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 28, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      05/28/2020  05/21/2020  05/30/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0         637       30,548       10,625 

CORN       
1,128,091   1,097,249     744,840   28,484,807   39,327,338 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          520          462 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0         499        3,343        3,491 

RYE                
0           0         100            0          200 

SORGHUM      
125,119     188,078      64,035    3,317,783    1,413,253 

SOYBEANS     
396,387     342,571     510,482   35,407,043   34,234,984 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
499,353     464,857     593,137   24,895,770   24,795,126 

Total      
2,148,950   2,092,755   1,913,730   92,139,814   99,785,479 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

US
ISM Manufacturing May: 43.1 (est 43.8; prev 41.5)


ISM New Orders May: 31.8 (prev 27.1)