From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2020 3:15:11 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 05/27/20

PDF attached





Relief to dryness came to some of Brazil’s Safrinha corn production area during the weekend while U.S. weather was mixed with some field progress occurring around showers and thunderstorms. Canola planting and emergence conditions improved in Western Australia
while northwestern Europe failed to get much moisture in key rapeseed areas. Northwestern Europe will continue to dry out for the next ten days.

Rain in the Black Sea region was good for summer crops while dryness in the eastern New Lands could prove stressful for sunseed. Additional rain in the Black Sea countries will further reduce concern over soil moisture and near term crop development.

Argentina dryness is good for harvesting summer crops and improved U.S. weather late this week and into next week will help get more fieldwork completed for its corn and soybean crop.

monsoon may start erratically, especially if a tropical cyclone evolves in the Arabian Sea late in the coming weekend or early next week as advertised.

rainfall in southeastern Europe has improved summer grain and oilseed production potentials and the same is expected in a part of Russia’s Southern Region and portions of Ukraine.

weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.  


about Black Sea and eastern CIS New Lands’ dryness continues to ease today. The only areas that will experience serious dryness will be in Kazakhstan and the lower Volga River Valley, although some areas in the southeastern New Lands will also experience some
crop moisture stress until greater rain evolves.

Northwestern Europe’s dry bias remains a concern for some of its small grain crops and a close watch on the situation is warranted. Little to no rain is expected in the U.K., northern France and Germany for at least another week. Rain in Eastern Europe and
the western CIS will be great for their small grains.

Rain in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria during the weekend improved small grain prospects at least some and a few additional showers will impact some of these areas over the coming week. South Africa still needs rain and parts of western Argentina
are considered too dry.

Some wheat damage may have occurred from flooding rain in interior southern Brazil late last week, but the lighter rain in Sao Paulo, Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul during the weekend was very good for those crops. Conditions are expected to improve in southern

China’s winter wheat crop is still poised to perform well with dryness occurring now expected to spur on fast crop maturation and eventual harvesting. Spring grains in northeastern China have benefited greatly from recent rain and crop conditions have improved.

Canada’s Prairies have become too wet in the west and a little too dry in portions of the central and east. Changes in Canada are at least a full week away with rising crop stress in the dry areas of Saskatchewan and west-central Manitoba. Ontario and Quebec
are experiencing better wheat development conditions.

Heat and dryness are now slated for the western U.S. high Plains region through the next week to ten days. This will stress immature crops that are unirrigated resulting in some lower yield and grain quality. The more mature crops will be sped faster to full
maturity by the heat.  Recent rain in Nebraska and northern Kansas was good for wheat development and yield. 

U.S. spring wheat planting and establishment is advancing well. Some rain would be welcome, but the drier areas may not get much until late next week.

Overall, weather today may provide a mixed bias to market mentality.

World Weather Inc. and FI




Ag Calendar

May 27:

  • AmSpec,
    Intertek release Malaysia’s palm oil export data for May 1-25
    Nordzucker, IOI Corp

May 28:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 11:00am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Poland
    crop plantings report
    Sanderson Farms

May 29:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • U.S.
    Agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases data on coffee, rice, rubber exports in May
  • Shanghai
    exchange’s weekly commodities inventory

Bloomberg and FI



Corn futures traded
basis the nearby contracts on a weaker USD.  Light frost risk for Brazil’s second corn crop overnight is seen supportive.  We think second corn crop damage was already widely realized from loss of yields from dry weather of over 10 percent from last year. 

Funds bought an estimated net 5,000 corn contracts. 

July corn support is seen at $3.15. 

River terminal corn basis firmed again at Davenport IA, by 3 cents to 2 under.  It was also up at Savana IL by 2 cents to 6 under. 

Zambia corn production was estimated at 3.4 million tons, up from 2 million previous year. 

South Africa’s CEC updated their corn production estimate to 15.589 million tons, up from 15.221 million tons previous (April), and well above 11.275 million tons year ago.  Broken down, 9.075 million tons
is of white corn and 6.515 million tons of yellow corn. 


Export Developments

  • Results
    awaited: Syria seeks 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on May 24, for delivery within four months of purchase. 

China plans to sell 4 million tons of corn from state reserves on May 28.  This would be the first auction of the season.  3.66 million tons of corn is from 2015. 






SGS – Malaysian palm oil May 1-25 exports increased 5.1 percent to 1.014MMT versus 965,025 tons previous April 1-25.  AmSpec showed a 9.8% increase to 1.035MMT.   


Export Developments

  • USDA
    seeks 12,500 tons of packaged vegetable oil on June 2 for July shipment. 

  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture changes in destination of 138,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal from unknown destinations to the Philippines during the 2019/2020 marketing year.









  • Japan
    bought 220 tons of feed barley and passed on feed wheat.  They were in for 80k feed wheat and 120k barley.  -SBS
  • Japan
    seeks 112,109 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada and Australia on Thursday.

  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on May 25 for October through November shipment. 

  • Japan
    seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by August 31 and arrive in Japan by October 29, in its weekly (SBS) tender system, on May 27.
  • Syria
    looks to sell 100,000 tons of feed barley.  Offers are due June 23. 



  • The
    Philippines seeks 300,000 tons of rice on June 8. 
  • South
    Korea plans to donate 50,000 tons of rice to Africa and the Middle East. 


Updated 5/21/20

  • Chicago July is seen in a $5.00-$5.31 range
  • KC July $4.40-$4.70
  • MN July $5.05-$5.30 


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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