From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 3:39:59 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 05/20/20

PDF attached





Periodic rain delays are expected in U.S. planting during the next ten days, but some fieldwork is expected. The wettest conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. A very good environment will remain for emerging and establishing spring and
summer crops.

in western Canada’s Prairies this week will stall spring fieldwork through the weekend while weather in the east will be dry and warm favoring spring planting progress.  More rain in Ontario, Canada Friday into early next week will keep fieldwork for corn
and soybean areas advancing slowly. Next week will perpetuate some of the delays in southeastern Canada with rain expanding into Quebec after the weekend.

and Argentina weather will not change much over the coming ten days and that should translate into ongoing good western Safrinha crop conditions in Brazil while conditions in the east are quite varied leaving many areas in need of rain. Harvesting in Argentina
may be briefly delayed by rain today and Thursday.

harvest weather is expected in South Africa and India. Crop planting and establishment in China is expected to advance favorably, although the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin will be drying out.

is expected over the next few days in southeastern Europe brining some needed relief to dryness in the Balkan Countries. In the meantime, Western Europe will be drying out with northern France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany becoming
too dry soon.

in Ukraine and a part of Russia’s Southern region in the coming week will be welcome, but more rain will be needed near the Black and Caspian Seas.

Asia still needs greater rain in Thailand and portions of the Philippines while conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia are mostly good.

today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality. 


conditions around the world changed little overnight. Dryness remains in the southwestern U.S. Plains and in some areas near the Black Sea and developing in northern Europe. Dryness was also continuing in Western and South Australia. Rain chances are improving
for some of these drier areas with rain in the Balkan Countries over the next few days, some scattered showers in Russia and Ukraine and some rainfall in the southwestern U.S. Plains.

Some showers may impact Queensland and far northern New South Wales, Australia today and early Thursday, but much more rain will be needed to induce the best autumn planting. Western Australia may receive some rain Sunday into Monday and that too will be welcome.

Canada’s Prairies planting has been advancing favorably while wheat development in Quebec and Ontario should begin improving this week due to warmer temperatures. A storm in Alberta and western Saskatchewan today into Friday will stall farm progress.

Spring wheat planting in the northern U.S. Plains should be advancing favorably.

Rain is needed in Argentina and South Africa to support planting.

Overall, weather today is expected to have a mixed influence with some bearish bias.

World Weather Inc. and FI




Ag Calendar

May 20:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • EU
    set to present its Farm to Fork strategy for sustainable food
  • New
    Zealand food prices, 6:45pm ET Tuesday
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for May 1-20
  • USDA
    milk production, 3pm

May 21:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3 pm
  • U.S.
    cold storage – pork, beef, poultry
    France, Germany, Belgium, Indonesia

May 22:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3 pm
  • Shanghai
    exchange’s weekly commodities inventory, 15.30
    Sime Darby Plantation

May 23:

  • China
    May trade data, including agricultural imports

Bloomberg and FI




CPI NSA (M/M) Apr: -0.7% (exp -0.6%; prev -0.6%)

CPI (Y/Y) Apr: -0.2% (exp -0.1%; prev 0.9%)

CPI Core Median (Y/Y) Apr: 2.0% (exp 1.9%; prev 2.0%)

CPI Core Common (Y/Y) Apr: 1.6% (exp 1.7%; prev 1.7%)

CPI Core Trim (Y/Y) Apr: 1.8% (exp 1.8%; prev 1.8%)

Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Mar: -2.2% (exp 4.8%; prev 0.7%)



Corn futures ended mixed on bear spreading.  Nearby futures fell to their lowest level since early March on talk of increasing import quotas and an upcoming corn sale out of reserves. July fell 1.75 cents
and December down 0.25 cent. On the contrary, July soybeans climbed 4.25 cents and November was up 3.75 cents.  Spreading was likely.  Previous to today, corn
rose higher over the previous three sessions. Argentina and Ukraine were active in selling corn over the past day.  EIA showed another week of recovery in US ethanol production, but the rise was less than a Bloomberg trade guess. 

Funds sold an estimated net 4,000 corn contracts. 

AgRural lowered their outlook for the safrinha crop to 66.7 million tons,  amounting to a total corn crop of 97.7 million tons. 

US corn basis again firmed at selected locations across the western Corn Belt on Monday.  Blair, NE, was up 5 cents from Monday. China corn processors were up 5 cents to bid 5 under. 

Some sections of the northern IL river are closed due to flooding. 

China plans to sell 4 million tons of corn from state reserves on 28.  This would be the first auction of the season.  3.66 million tons of corn is from 2015. 

China seeks to sell 10,000 tons of pork from state reserves on May 22.  320,000 tons have been sold this year. 

Ukraine grain exports are up by 18 percent this season. 

Kazakhstan is considering lifting their ban on grain and flour exports, with a target date of June 1. 

The weekly USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down 2 percent and chicks placed down 10 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through May 16, 2020 for the United States
were 3.70 billion. Cumulative placements were down slightly from the same period a year earlier.


ethanol production for the week ending 5/15 rose less than expected, up 46,000 barrels to 663,000, highest since early April.  Stocks declined a large 564,000 barrels reflecting a rebound in consumption, even though gasoline supplied fell from the previous
week.  A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 54,000 stocks to decrease 275,000 barrels to 23.915 million.







Export Developments

  • None





  • Anec
    estimated Brazil second half soybean exports at a record 7.2 million tons, which could bring May exports to 14-15 million tons. 
  • India
    oilmeal exports for the month of April were only 102,001 tons, down 60 percent from April 2019.
  • Indonesia’s
    Crop Estate Fund estimated the country may export 12 percent less palm oil than previously expected for 2020.  No figures were provided. 
  • AmSpec
    Malaysian May 1-20 palm exports: 781,324 tons, +14.2% from 684,162 last month.  ITS: 772,142 or +11.6% from 691,910 tons. 


Export Developments

  • None





  • CBOT
    July Chicago wheat screamed higher, ending 15.0 cents higher, from what appeared to be a short squeeze.  Day 2 KS wheat crop tour may show a wide range of yields.  The bulls might have been eying the 20-day moving average of $5.1775 after prices took out the
    May 13 high of $5.1425. The contract traded through that level but ended below it.  We learned South Korea is in for US wheat on Thursday.  European wheat rallied 2.75 euros to 189.75 euros, or 1.5 percent.   
  • KC
    July ended 11.75 cents higher and MN July 12.25 higher.
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 12,000 Chicago wheat contracts. 
  • Day
    one of the Kansas Wheat Commission, the Kansas State University extension and the Kansas Department of Agriculture crop tour showed mixed yields for the northern growing areas.  Day two will be out later this afternoon.  Preliminary pictures show varying yields. 
  • Harvesting
    of winter wheat across TX and OK is expected to slow in the coming days from rain showers. 
  • Russia
    official customs shows Jan-Mar wheat exports reaching 7.336 million tons, up from 6.605 million tons year earlier. 


Kansas Wheat Tour is now underway

1 showed the yield for north-central Kansas at 41.1 bushels per acre and 51.7 bu for northwest Kansas. Statewide USDA has 47.0 bu/acre.




  • South
    Korea’s Kofmia seeks about 90,000 tons of milling wheat on Thursday for August and September arrival.  Much or all the wheat could be of US origin. 
  • Ethiopia
    confirmed they bought 600,000 tons of wheat, optional origin, late last month.  Some of the wheat may have been sold just under $200/ton. 
  • Russia
    plans to send more wheat to North Korea for aid. 
  • Japan
    received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by August 31 and arrive in Japan by October 29, in its weekly (SBS) tender system.
  • Results
    awaited: Syria seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat on May 20.
  • Japan
    seeks 110,573 tons of food wheat on Thursday.

  • Japan
    seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by August 31 and arrive in Japan by October 29, in its weekly (SBS) tender system, on May 27.



  • None


Updated 5/18/20

  • Chicago July is seen in a $4.75-$5.20 range. 
  • KC July $4.20-$4.80.
  • MN July $4.85-$5.25. 


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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