From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, February 21, 2020 2:59:50 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 02/21/20
PDF attached does not include daily estimate of funds. COT attached
released 2020-21 US S&D’s. South Korea bought more corn. China expanded travel/lockdown restrictions as coronavirus continues to spread (500 cases in prisons). Look for positioning today. Palm oil exports during the Feb 16-20 period improved.
released 2020 US Outlook Tables
US soybean ending stocks 320 vs. trade ave. 519 (-199) and compares to 2019-20 of 425
US corn ending stocks 2637 vs. trade ave. 2443 (+194) and compares to 2019-20 of 1892
US all-wheat ending stocks 777 vs. trade ave. 829 (-52) and compares to 2019-20 of 940
for corn are very high, soybeans lower than expected and wheat lower than expected.
US soybean stocks of 320 million were 10 less than the lowest trade estimate (FI) and 105 million below 2019-20. STU falls to 7.4% versus 10.5 percent for 2019-20. USDA projects 2020-21 US crush up 25 million to 2.130 billion and exports up 225 million to
soybean meal domestic use estimated up 700,000 short tons to record 37.500 million and exports are down 100,000 from 2019-20.
soybean oil stocks are expected to rise 35 million pounds at 1.550 billion from 2019-20. They see US soybean oil for biodiesel use at 8.500 billion pounds, unchanged from the baseline, and up 300 million pounds from 2019-20. Interestingly they have a 33-cent
target on SBO.
for ethanol projected up only 25 million bushels from 2019-20, while exports are up 375 million from 2019-20. US corn for feed is up 275 million. Unusually high US carryout of 2.637 billion yields a 17.9% STU.
for feed projected down 30 million bushels and stocks are down 163 million from 2019-20. No major surprises.