From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Thursday, January 09, 2020 3:24:53 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 01/09/20
Jan. 8, 2019 ― The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices
on afternoon of Jan. 7.
conditions in many Brazil and Argentina crop areas will be favorable over the next two weeks, although a close watch on the rain distribution is warranted. A few pockets could be a little too dry. Rio Grande do Sul will get some relief from dryness over the
coming week with northern soybeans benefiting more than southern corn or rice production areas. Paraguay will receive additional rain periodically over the coming week to further improve soil and crop conditions. The same is expected over all neighboring areas.
of Argentina’s north need timely rainfall and will get some over the coming week to ten days.
Africa summer crop conditions should be largely beneficial over the next couple of weeks. Australia weather will continue hot and too dry for crop changes, although it would not be surprising to see some rain in eastern parts of the nation later this month.
winter crops are in very good condition and should remain that way for the next two weeks. Summer crop harvesting in the south will continue around brief periods of rain.
rapeseed conditions will have potential for improvement in the spring after this week’s storm system brought significant moisture to the production region. A follow up storm system will see to it the region is plenty moist in the spring.
Europe and the southwestern parts of the CIS will be dry biased for a while, but winter crops are dormant or semi-dormant and will not be bothered. A boost in precipitation will be needed in the late winter prior to the start of spring growth.
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias prevailing.
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
crop conditions around the world are either in fair to good condition or poised for improvement. Recent moisture in the United States will be good for spring crop development. Snow is accumulating in the northwestern U.S. Plains before bitter cold conditions
evolve in the next week to ten days to prevent winterkill.
of Ukraine, southern Russia and Kazakhstan are still snow free and some winter crops are not well established due to dryness and change is needed by spring to improve crops.
is no risk of crop threatening cold in Russia, Europe or most of China’s key winter crop production areas for the coming week to ten days. Winter crops are not as well established as they should be in some areas of southeastern Europe locations or in parts
of China, but recent rain and snow in eastern China will see to it that big improvements occur prior to the start of aggressive crop development in the spring.
winter crops are poised to perform quite well this year and rain in Pakistan Sunday into Monday will improve the outlook there as well.
in northern Africa will be closely monitored with Morocco the only area at risk of lower production today but drying in northwestern Algeria will continue for a while.
weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.
World Weather Inc. and FI
no active El Nino or La Nina
of Rouen data on French grain exports
Nation’s FAO Food Price Index
Bureau of Meteorology releases climate statement
Zealand commodity price
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
end-2019 palm oil stocks, production, export numbers; Jan. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek and SGS
winter wheat seeding forecast
quarterly wheat, barley, corn, soybean stocks, noon
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
Bloomberg and FI
Reuters and FI
Soybeans: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 9 Neutral: 5
Corn: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 4 Neutral: 11
Wheat: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 10 Neutral: 8
Raw sugar: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 4
White sugar: Bullish: 4 Bearish: 0 Neutral: 3
White-sugar premium: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 0 Neutral: 2
China Says Liu He to Travel to U.S. for Trade Deal Signing
US Initial Jobless Claims Jan 4: 214K (est 220K ; prevR 223K ; prev 222K)
US Continuing Claims Jan 9: 1.803M (est 1.72M ; prev 1.728M)
Funds were net sellers of an estimated 6,000 corn contracts.
Agroconsult sees the 2019-20 Brazil corn area up 2 percent to 17.8 million hectares, and production at 101.6 million tons, down 1.3 percent from previous year.
Poland reported 55 outbreaks of African swine fever in wild boar near the German border last month. Germany has been building fences to prevent a spread of the disease. A discovery of ASF in Germany would
be a huge blow for the country as they are large exporters of pork.
Traders will be watching the phase one trade signing in Washington next week.
Crumbling Corn Adding to Woes for American Grain Exporters
INTL FCStone estimated summer-corn output in Rio Grande do Sul at 4.8 million tons, down from 6 million tons last month. EMATER/RS full season corn is 5.95 million tons. RGSD really has only one season for
corn due to its climate.
USDA is set to release their annual crop production report on Friday. U.S. corn production seen 159m bu lower, yields seen a point lower at 166 bu/acre. Dec. 1 corn stocks seen at 11.47b bu, 465m less than
in Dec. 2018.
EIA: Natural gas prices in 2019 were the lowest in the past three years
FAS USDA Attaché: Brazil March-February corn exports could decline to 34 million tons from their forecast of 37 million year earlier.
Korea’s NOFI bought 69,000 tons of optional origin corn at $211.95/ton c&f for arrival around April 15.
Korea’s FLC bought 66,000 tons of US corn at $207.49/ton c&f for shipment between Jan. 25 and Feb. 25 from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.
South Korea’s KOCOPIA bought 60,000 tons of corn at $218.28/ton c&f for arrival in March.
India’s MMTC delayed their import tender for 175,000 tons (50k previously) of non-GMO corn from Jan 7 to January
valid until January 22, for shipment by February 10. Another source put shipment by Jan 22.