PDF attached
EIA weekly petroleum status report showed ethanol production last week dropped a more than expected 14,000 barrels to 1.014 million (Bloomberg poll looked for up 3,000) and stocks build of 215,000 barrels to 22.733 (trade up 130k). Stocks are highest since February 19, 2021 and production lowest since May 7. We think the slowdown in corn crush reflects tighter domestic supplies and high basis, pressuring crush margins. September 2020 through July 23 ethanol production is running 3.3% above the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand was up 30,000 barrels to 9.325 million from the previous week, 2.4% below this time two years ago, but ethanol blended into finished motor gasoline fell to 91.5% from 91.7% previous week. Annualized crop year to date ethanol production is still on track to reach USDA’s implied projection, and corn used for ethanol production is still expected to exceed USDA’s 2020-21 estimate of 5.050 billion bushels (4.852 used during 2019-20). We are above USDA’s estimate at 5.077 billion for 2020-21. For 2021-22 USDA is at 5.200 billion. We are 50 million below USDA’s estimate for new-crop.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI072821.pdf