PDF attached
NOPA March US crush report was slightly bearish for soybeans and a little friendly for the products. NOPA reported a March crush at 178.0 million bushels, 1.2 million below a Reuters trade average but below 181.4 million reported a year ago. Daily adjusted the crush increased only 3.6% from February and was down 1.9% from March 2020. The daily crush also ranks 6th largest in our working history. US soybean oil stocks came in at 1.771 billion pounds, 51 million below an average trade guess and well up from 11.70 pounds per bushel from February and below 1.899 billion reported a year earlier.
It is not that uncommon to see a large March soybean oil yield when looking back at history, but month over month it’s a little unusual to see such a large jump. The US March soybean oil yield of 11.84 is the second highest for month of March. September 2019 was last highest for any month at 11.86. Soybean oil production was 2.107 billion pounds, fourth largest for any month in our working history, and implied soybean oil use rebounded a good amount from February. Soybean meal exports were about 50,000 short tons above our expectations. Coming in at 937,000 short tons, they are below 974,000 short tons exported during March 2020. The soybean meal yield declined from the previous month to 47.57 from 47.64 and compares to 47.07 year ago. Soybean meal production for March 2021 was the 6th largest in our working history. Looking forward, with CBOT August crush trading at 70 cents earlier in the day (highest since April 1), we see no reason for crushers to slow down this summer unless they have a hard time sourcing soybeans, which will be inevitable for some areas.
Soybean oil implied use was better than expected.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
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Skype: fi.treilly
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Crush-est-FI041521.pdf