PDF attached
The lower than expected US May soybean crush and end of May soybean oil stocks is viewed supportive for SBO, in our opinion. Crush margins were mostly higher at the time this was written.
US soybean meal exports at 714,000 short tons was neutral and slightly supportive for that contract. Generally, you see a lower May soybean oil yield. For May it was reported at 11.82 pounds per bushel, up from 11.79 previous month, a small offset from the higher than expected implied soybean oil demand. Note the SBO yield for the month of May was second largest since at least 2006, below the record of 11.92 of May 2013. The meal yield was 47.63 versus 47.64 last month.
US crushers used 5.27 million bushels per day of soybeans, below 5.34 million during the month of April, and lowest monthly rate so far this season. The 163.5 million bushels crush was 1.6 million bushels below a Reuters trade guess, and well below 169.6 million a year ago. Soybean oil stocks of 1.671 billion are 42 million below the 1.713 billion pound Reuters trade average (Bloomberg was @ 1.691 billion), and below 1.880 billion at the end of May 2020 (210 million less), and lowest stock figure since November 2020.
Look for USDA to leave its US crush estimate unchanged next month and possible take SBO down 25-50 million pounds if they decide to again upward revise domestic demand.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Crush-est-FI061521.pdf