FI Morning Grain Comments 12/29/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

Lower
trade again on profit taking and consolidation ahead of the New Year’s holiday despite soybean oil finding a bid on unwinding of meal/oil spreading. WTI is lower, USD slightly lower and US equities higher. SA weather continues to advertise hot temperatures
for Argentina and southern Brazil that will counter precipitation. Egypt is seeing bids for French and BS wheat. Jordan bought wheat. Look for a choppy light trade today on lack of news and uncertainty over the sizes of the summer SA crops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 29, 2021

• Not
  much change in South America since mid-day Tuesday when the models turned wetter in southern Brazil next week and further out in the second week of the outlook.
  
• Some
  of that second week rainfall was reduced as it was needed. However, there is still an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms in southern Brazil today and Thursday with light rainfall resulting.
  
• A
  better chance for frequent showers and thunderstorms will begin Monday and continue through Friday of next week at which time most corn and soybean areas from Parana into Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo will get needed rain while portions of Paraguay and
  Rio Grande do Sul get a few lighter showers.
• There
  will be relief to dryness with below average precipitation resuming after the end of next week.
  
• There
  is concern over possible winterkill in South Dakota this morning due to snow free conditions and bitter cold.
  
• The
  situation in South Dakota may be ongoing over the next few days, although a dusting of snow is expected that may add a little protection. 
  
• Farther
  to the south there will be some snow in U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas that should protect wheat from positive and negative single digit low temperatures this weekend.
  
• A
  large winter storm will impact areas from Missouri and Iowa into the Great Lakes region this weekend producing substation snow.
  
• Rain
  and strong thunderstorms are expected to the south of the snowfall.
• Rain
  has fallen in India to benefit some of its winter crops prior to reproduction and a few showers may linger.
  
• Eastern
  Australia has a little more rain potential in the east in today’s forecast relative to that of Tuesday, but more moisture is still needed.
  
• Russia,
  Ukraine and northeastern Europe will continue to have significant snow cover to protect its winter crops from any cool weather that evolves.
  
• South
  Africa will experience a mix of rain and sunshine with a little drier bias in western summer crop areas. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday

• USDA
  export sales

Friday

• EIA
  biodiesel feedstock and month ethanol production
• CFTC
  Commitment of Traders

Russia’s
New Year holiday is from Dec. 31 to Jan. 9.

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

First
Notice Day Delivery estimates 

Soybeans
zero

Soybean
oil 0-250

Soybean
meal zero

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower on follow through selling and lack of US export developments.  

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 barrels to 1.055 million (1036-1080 range) from the previous week and stocks up 57,000 barrels to 20.762 million.

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans and meal are lower from ongoing profit taking.  Soybean oil is higher on unwinding of meal/oil spreads despite a lower trade in WTI crude oil. News is light. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 37 points lower and meal $2.80 short ton lower.

·        
Malaysian March futures decreased 77 ringgit to 4,695 and cash decreased $15/ton to $1,177.50/ton.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oil values were 5-15 euros lower in the nearby tradable positions from around this time yesterday morning and Rotterdam meal 12 euros higher to 6 euros lower.

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $1.68/bu ($1.65 previous) versus $1.74 at the end of last week and compares to $1.13 a year ago.

·        
China soybean complex showed a 1.5% decrease in soybeans, 1.1% decrease in soybean meal, 0.1 increase in soybean oil and 0.4% increase in palm oil.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
The CCC seeks 12,000 tons of soybean oil on Jan 5 for Feb 5-15 delivery for the Dominican Republic.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is lower on technical selling and lack of US interest for wheat.

·        
US weather maps are indicating an expansion of precipitation for the dry areas of the Great Plains although not all areas will see rai/snow over the next week.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt’s GASC saw offers for wheat and lowest was $331.86/ton FOB or 60k for French wheat. When they floated, the wheat was for February through March 3 shipment. In their last wheat import tender on November 29, they paid $375.90-$379.10/ton
(includes freight of $25-$26/ton) for 600,000 tons of Romanian and Russian origin.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat at $327.00/ton for shipment in the first half of August 2022.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on December 30.  Possible shipments period included July 1-15, July 16-31, Aug. 1-15 and Aug. 16-31.

·        
Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on January 3 from the US, Canada and Australia.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of non-basmati parboiled rice on December 30 for delivery 50 days from contract award and letter of credit opening.