PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Short
trading week with Christmas Holiday.  USDA will release the export sales report on Wednesday.  We can’t remember if they ever released this report early, but it may be a good idea to keep an eye on US soybean export sales as China could have switched soybean
commitment from SA to the US.  CFTC COT will be delated until Monday. 

 

Today
most of the commodity markets, led by mineral oil, are lower on talk of a mutating Covid strain.  Soybean futures were somewhat spared from higher soybean meal. Global vegetable oil markets are under pressure.  The USD was up by more than 60 points as of 6:00
am CT.  European equities are down sharply.  Brazil received key rains over the weekend bias the southern and central areas.  Argentina saw rain but will trend drier this week.  Corn and wheat are trading lower, following outside markets. 

 

Grain
and oilseed export developments were light over the weekend.  Bangladesh issued another import tender for 50,000 tons of rice.  Black Sea wheat and corn prices were up last week.  China’s AgMin reported the November pig herd crop was up 29.8 percent from a
year ago and the sow herd increased 31.2 percent. 

 

 

Weather

SUNDAY
EVENINIG WEATHER UPDATE

  • Argentina
    rainfall was a little lighter than expected in some areas, but not by much
    • The
      impact of rain was as expected on Friday morning when World Weather, Inc. warned that the moisture would be welcome, but it would be gone in a few days and the nation would be as dry as it was late last week by the end of this coming week
      • That
        forecast for this week has not changed
      • Short
        term benefits to the moisture resulted, but much more rain must occur to restore soil moisture to normal and to ensure crop stress does not become more threatening to production a little later this month and in early January
  • Argentina
    rainfall from satellite and surface weather observations was widespread Friday into Saturday except in eastern Buenos Aires, the northwest half of Santiago del Estero and Salta where dry conditions prevailed.
    • Rainfall
      varied from 20 to 0.70 inch most often with local totals of 0.70 to 1.81 inches
      • One
        location in northern La Pampa near the Cordoba border reached 2.25 inches
      • The
        greatest rainfall occurred in southwestern Buenos Aires, east-central San Luis, along the Cordoba/La Pampa border as well as from northwestern Santa Fe to Corrientes and northeastern Entre Rios
        • The
          rain was highly varied with some areas getting more rain than others, but as suggested Friday by World Weather, Inc. the precipitation will not be enough to counter evaporation for the coming week and most areas will be as dry by the end of this week as they
          were late last week before the rain fell
    • Highest
      afternoon temperatures Friday and Saturday were in the middle and upper 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in northwestern Argentina while in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most other areas
      • However,
        late weekend afternoon temperatures were notably cooler with readings in the 60s and 70s in the south and in the 80s to near 90 in the north Sunday
  • Argentina
    rainfall will be minimal this week; any showers that evolve will be too light and brief to counter evaporation and those areas missing the greatest rainfall Friday and early Saturday will experience rising stress of significance as the second week of the outlook
    begins unless greater rain evolves
    • Any
      rain that occurs through Friday will not be significant varying from a trace to 0.30 inch
      • Warmer
        temperatures will return making evaporation rates far greater than the rainfall resulting in net drying
    • Erratic
      rainfall will occur during the coming weekend through the middle part of next week, but resulting rainfall will not be more than 0.50 inch except in a few random locations in far western parts of Cordoba where some heavy rainfall may occur
      • Most
        other areas were advertised to be left dry
    • The
      early next opportunity for generalized rain will occur Dec. 30-Jan. 2, but confidence is low
  • Argentina
    temperatures will be warmer than usual during the next two weeks and that on combination with the limited rainfall will lead to moisture depletion, crop moisture stress and rising worry over 2021 production potentials
  • Brazil
    weekend rainfall was erratic, but some of the rain from Argentina moved into the far south late Saturday and Sunday morning and it was advancing to the interior southern areas Sunday afternoon.
    • Rain
      totals through early afternoon Sunday varied from 1.00 to 2.00 inches in portions of southern Paraguay, southwestern Parana, western Santa Catarina and western and northern Rio Grande do Sul.
    • Rainfall
      was also significant earlier in the weekend in southern Minas Gerais and northeastern Sao Paulo where 0.15 to 0.40 inch and local totals to 0.88 inch resulted
    • Rainfall
      was sporadic and light through Sunday afternoon resulting in net drying from central and southern Sao Paulo and from northern Mato Grosso do Sul and eastern Mato Grosso through portions of Goias to Bahia, Tocantins, Piaui and Pernambuco
      • Some
        western Mato Grosso locations reported 0.25 to 1.10 inches of rain with local totals to 1.34 inches late Saturday night and Sunday and similar conditions occurred in and around the Federal district in Goias and northwestern Minas Gerais.
    • Highest
      temperatures were in the 90s to 102 degrees Fahrenheit except in southeastern Brazil where readings were in the 80s
      • Lowest
        temperatures were in the 60s and 70s Fahrenheit
  • Brazil
    weather over the next two weeks will become more typical of La Nina years meaning rain will fall more frequently from Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins to Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Parana
    • Net
      drying is expected in Rio Grande do Sul and some immediate neighboring areas as well as in eastern and northern Bahia, Pernambuco and a few eastern Piaui locations
      • Rainfall
        elsewhere over the next ten days will range from 2.00 to 4.00 inches and local totals of 4.00 to more than 7.00 inches
        • Minas
          Gerais will be wettest in central through eastern areas as well as in Rio de Janeiro and southern Espirito Santo
  • Australia
    rainfall during the weekend increased in parts of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales cotton and sorghum production areas
    • Resulting
      rainfall through dawn Sunday varied from 0.10 to 0.50 inch with a few locally greater amounts
      • The
        moisture was helpful in easing some dryness, but more rain was needed to make a more definitive improvement in soil and crop conditions
    • Australia
      temperatures were quite warm to hot again in Queensland and far northern New South Wales Friday and Saturday with extreme highs of 100 to 113 degrees Fahrenheit
      • Coastal
        areas were not nearly as warm with middle 80s to middle 90s noted
      • Temperatures
        were more seasonable elsewhere
  • Australia
    will receive additional rain today and Monday in northern New South Wales and some locations in southern Queensland before diminishing as it moves eastward Tuesday
    • Rainfall
      of 0.10 to 0.50 inch and locally more will occur in central through southeastern Queensland early this week while 0.50 to 1.50 inches and local totals over 2.00 inches will occur in northern New South Wales
      • Greater
        rain is still possible along the upper New South Wales coast
    • Rain
      will also occur in a few southeastern Australia locations this week slowing winter crop maturation and harvesting
    • The
      remainder of this week into early next week will be dry or mostly dry
    • Rain
      may increase in Queensland again in the last days of December and early January
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias early this week and then warming thereafter
  • China
    weather during the weekend was limited and it will continue restricted over the coming week
    • Areas
      near and south of the Yangtze River will be wettest, but no heavy rain is expected
    • Net
      drying is likely elsewhere
    • Next
      week’s precipitation will increase in the Yangtze River Basin maintaining moisture abundance in that region while seasonably dry weather prevails elsewhere
      • With
        that said it is important to recognize good soil moisture is present in most of eastern China and there is no reason for concern over the moisture situation
  • India
    weather was dry during the weekend; temperatures turned cooler with a few pockets of frost and light freezes in Punjab, Uttaranchal, Haryana and northeastern Rajasthan
    • None
      of the frost was great enough to seriously threaten winter crops
    • Cool
      weather may be back again late this week and again early to mid-week next week
      • No
        permanent crop damage is expecte4d from any frost or freezes that take place
        • Most
          of the coldest temperatures will be confined to Punjab, Haryana, northeastern Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh and areas farther north
    • Precipitation
      will be minimal over the next two weeks, although a few showers will occur between bouts of cool air in the far north
      • Resulting
        moisture will be kept light
      • Today,
        Monday and again next Saturday and Sunday will be wettest
      • GFS
        model suggests greater rain is possible in first days of January, but confidence is very low
      • Brief
        periods of rain will impact far southern India infrequently over the coming week
  • South
    Africa will experience erratic rainfall and warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks
    • Crop
      conditions will vary widely depending on the frequency and significance of daily rainfall
      • Some
        areas will need additional moisture to induce the best crop conditions
    • Weekend
      weather in South Africa was similar with erratic showers and thunderstorms impacting 25-30% of the nation’s crop areas with rainfall to 0.71 inch occurring most often with local totals of 1.00 to 1.25 inches. One location in south-central Free State reported
      2.25 inches
      • Net
        drying occurred in many areas
    • Temperatures
      were very warm in Northern Cape with highest reading in the middle and upper 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit
      • High
        temperatures elsewhere were in the 70s and 80s followed by lows in the 50s and 60s
  • Russia
    and Ukraine will experience periodic snow and rain through the next two weeks
    • Resulting
      precipitation will be near to above average except in a few Russian Southern region locations where amounts will remain lighter than usual
      • The
        moisture will be good for spring crop development with some of the snow to protect crops from any harsh weather that evolves
        • However,
          temperatures will be warmer than usual in western Russia, Belarus, the Baltic States, Ukraine and in a few areas in Russia’s Southern region
        • Temperatures
          will be a little cooler bias farther east, but no threatening cold is expected in any winter crop region
  • Europe
    will experience waves of rain and a little mountain snowfall during the coming week before precipitation becomes more limited to western Europe next week
    • Moisture
      totals this week will be greatest from northern France to northern Germany and Denmark where 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals to 5.00 inches will be possible. Surrounding areas will receive 0.30 to 1.00 inch with local totals to 1.50 inches
      • Southwestern
        Europe will be driest this week
    • Next
      week’s weather will be wettest in western and northern parts of Europe, although some light showers will occur in the southeast as well
    • Temperatures
      over the next two weeks will be near to above average
  • U.S.
    weather over the coming ten days has not changed much from that of last Friday
    • Frequent
      weather systems will impact areas east of the Mississippi River; including the eastern Midwest, Delta and Atlantic Coast States
      • Moisture
        totals will be greater than usual in the northeastern states
    • Most
      of the hard red winter wheat production areas will be left dry or mostly dry during this week and probably in the second week of the outlook as well
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average in the Plains and northeastern states and near to below average in the southeastern and middle Atlantic coast states
    • Next
      week temperatures will trend cooler in the western and north-central states
    • Florida
      citrus areas will be cold late this week with some low temperatures in the 30s Fahrenheit expected Friday and Saturday
      • Crop
        damage is not likely, but a close watch on the situation is warranted because anticipated temperatures could turn slightly colder as time moves along
  • U.S.
    precipitation during the weekend was greatest in the Delta and a part of the lower eastern Midwest
    • Some
      areas in eastern Texas and Louisiana reported0.70 to 1.40 inches with Lake Charles, La. reporting 2.19 inches
    • The
      only other precipitation occurred in the Pacific Northwest with some stormy conditions in coastal areas and heavy snow in the Cascade Mountains
      • Some
        moderate snow also occurred in the northern Rocky Mountain region
      • Temperatures
        were cold Saturday morning in the northeastern states and cooled near normal in the northern Plains and upper Midwest during the weekend
        • No
          threatening cold occurred in key crop areas
  • U.S.
    northern Plains moisture is expected to continue limited over the next ten days, although a little boost in moisture is possible near the Canada border during mid-week this week
  • U.S.
    west-central and southwestern Plains will fail to get much “meaningful” moisture in the next ten days
  • Far
    southwestern U.S. crop areas will remain drier biased over the next two weeks
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will remain plenty moist over the next two weeks especially in the southeastern states
  • Southern
    Canada’s Prairies will be wetter biased this week with two waves of significant snow expected in the south
    • A
      net boost in snow cover and eventual moisture in the spring will result
    • The
      area impacted needs precipitation and winter crops will benefit from the snow cover which has been absent for a while threatening winterkill during periods of bitter cold
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average this week and next week
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall recently has become a little erratic and a boost in precipitation will eventually be needed
    • No
      area is dry enough to pose a threat to short rooted crops, but greater volumes of rain would be welcome
    • The
      pattern of erratic rainfall that is a little lighter than usual may prevail through the end of this month
    • Weekend
      rain was locally heavy in Peninsular Malaysia where a few locations reported 1.77 to 3.00 inches and one location reported 5.63 inches
      • Another
        locations in southwestern Sulawesi reported 6.06 inches
      • Rainfall
        in most areas varied from 0.05 to 1.18 inches with a few greater amounts in central Java and northwestern Kalimantan
  • Southern
    Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia trended drier over the coming week after recent rain, but some scattered showers and thunderstorms still impacted Vietnam’s Central Highland and southern coastal areas
    • The
      recent moisture delayed harvest progress for some crops, but no serious crop quality changes were suspected
      • Winter
        crops benefitted from the expected moisture
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Krovanh formed west of the Philippines and was expected to pass south of the southern Vietnam coast this week
    • Despite
      no landfall, some of the storm’s rain will impact the lower half of the Vietnam coast with some heavy rain possible through Wednesday
    • Some
      rain from the tropical cyclone will also impact a part of Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Cambodia Wednesday into Thursday
      • The
        precipitation will end late in the weekend
    • Dry
      weather will certainly be needed after this week to support more normal harvest conditions
  • Philippines
    heavy rainfall continued during the weekend after beginning Thursday
    • Additional
      rainfall of 2.75 to more than 8.00 inches resulted in some flooding
    • Some
      damage to low lying crops was suspected, although not yet confirmed
    • Less
      rain will evolve this week, but another bout of significant rain may occur late this week and through the weekend resulting in additional heavy rain
  • A
    new tropical cyclone may evolve west of Palawan, Philippines next week before passing south of Vietnam later in that same week
    • This
      system could bring more rain to southern Vietnam
  • North
    Africa will need more rain later this month and In January
    • Morocco
      remains in need of significant moisture even though some showers occurred last week
    • Weekend
      rainfall was limited to northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia where moisture totals varied from 0.10 to 0.57 inch and a few areas getting more than 1.00 inch – mostly in Tunisia
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was at +12.80 today and it will remain strongly positive for a while even though some weakening is possible
    • World
      Weather, Inc. believes the index has peaked or is near its peak and weakening in the next few weeks with signal the beginning of a weakening trend in La Nina that will be most significant in February and March
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week which is not unusual for this time of year
  • Portions
    of Central America will continue to receive erratic rainfall over the next couple of weeks, but the intensity and frequency will be low enough to support some farming activity
    • Costa
      Rica and Caribbean coastal areas of both Nicaragua and Honduras will be wettest this week

·        
West-central Africa will become more normal for this time of year with a few coastal showers

    • Recent
      rainfall has been greater than usual especially in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Senegal, southern Benin and coastal Nigeria
    • Weekend
      rainfall in Ivory Coast coffee and cocoa areas reached 1.10 inches which was notably greater than usual disrupting harvest progress and raising concern over some off season flowering

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda while rainfall will be greatest over Tanzania this week

·        
New Zealand weather this week will trend greater than last week with some well-timed moisture across the nation

    • Temperatures
      will be below average

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: Argentina’s erratic weekend rain and expected struggle for meaningful moisture over the next ten days will drive futures market prices higher today. Brazil weather, however, is expected to be favorable for that nation’s
crops as time moves along. Rio Grande do Sul and far northeastern Brazil will be the only areas that struggle for moisture.

           
South Africa weather will be mostly good for summer crops, but there will be some pockets of dryness. Indonesia and Malaysia weather will also continue erratic and light in portions of the nation during the next couple of weeks.

           
China’s winter rapeseed will be dormant and plenty moist this week. Weather in India will be good for most of its winter crops as well as for late summer crop harvest progress.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS: No further improvement in soil moisture is expected in the U.S. central or southwestern Plains this week or most of next week. Some areas in Montana may get some light precipitation, but it will not change
crop conditions due to their dormant status. Snow cover coming to southern Canada’s Prairies will be extremely helpful in putting snow on the ground and reducing the risk of winterkill.

           
Russia’s Southern Region and Ukraine crops will benefit from periods of snow and rain during the next couple of weeks, although the benefit will not be noted until spring. Any boost in snow cover will help protect winter crops, although there is no risk of
crop damaging cold.

           
Winter crops in Europe, China and India are mostly in favorable condition. Recent weeks of moisture improvement will help many of the winter grains in these areas experience better root and tiller systems in early spring.

           
Morocco still needs significant moisture especially in the southwest. A part of northwestern Algeria and a few far northeastern Morocco areas also need greater precipitation, but not much is coming this week. Some boost in precipitation might also be welcome
in the Middle East.

           
Australia’s late season harvest in the southeast will be disrupted by some precipitation in the coming week, but no serious harm to crop quality is anticipated.

           
Argentina’s limited rain in wheat areas during the weekend should help to expedite plant maturation and harvest progress over the next week to ten days.

           
Overall, weather today will likely have a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR COTTON:  Cotton in Australia will benefit from rain that has occurred during the weekend and that which is coming early this week. Follow up rain will still be needed, but some improved planting and establishment conditions will result
in the dryland production areas.

           
Cotton in southern India will continue to improve with drier biased weather. Argentina cotton conditions vary greatly with rain needed in the west. Brazil’s cotton in Bahia will benefit from some timely rainfall later this week and next week after trending
drier recently.

South
Africa cotton conditions are rated favorably, but rain is needed in dryland areas Northern Cape, western North West and some neighboring areas. Irrigated fields are in good shape.

U.S.
late season harvesting is nearly complete except in parts of the southeastern states and weather will continue a little too wet at times to get the end of the harvest completed.

Overall,
weather is not likely to have much impact on market mentality today.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Dec. 21:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Dec. 22:

  • U.S.
    cold storage stocks of poultry, pork, beef; poultry slaughter, 3pm

Wednesday,
Dec. 23:

  • China
    customs publishes data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • USDA
    hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, 3pm

Thursday,
Dec. 24:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Dec. 25:

  • Christmas
    Day
  • NOTE:
    Commitments of Traders reports for both ICE Futures Europe and CFTC will be delayed to Monday, Dec. 28
  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Traditional
funds were much less long than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat that what the trade expected. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
278,715    -14,526    393,944      4,264   -651,404      6,107

Soybeans          
165,567      3,966    177,237      4,707   -341,977    -13,241

Soyoil             
72,662     10,784    125,059     -4,566   -219,148     -6,804

CBOT
wheat         -18,122     10,371    133,789     -1,496    -98,541     -8,210

KCBT
wheat          31,532      6,625     69,928      1,322   -102,011     -8,273

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
250,260    -19,322    247,282      5,511   -623,422      5,251

Soybeans          
190,218      4,562    102,241        161   -337,815    -10,504

Soymeal            
77,207     14,565     68,696     -2,004   -190,538    -11,353

Soyoil             
97,719      8,656     89,511     -1,840   -230,686     -8,316

CBOT
wheat           6,672     12,364     81,226     -2,714    -87,093     -7,174

KCBT
wheat          52,613      7,838     42,528        652    -97,839     -8,441

MGEX
wheat           3,389        851      2,767        578    -12,165     -3,322

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         62,674     21,053    126,521     -1,484   -197,097    -18,937

Live
cattle         41,269      3,046     68,217        560   -122,606     -3,231

Feeder
cattle        2,522        576      7,644       -246     -4,326        186

Lean
hogs           31,744     -1,841     48,752      1,134    -78,643      3,958

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

 

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • China
    cash crush margins were 109 cents on our calculation, compared to 123 last week and 131 year ago.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Wheat

  • Wheat
    is lower following weakness in outside related commodity markets and sharply higher USD.  
  • EU
    March milling wheat was down 1.00 at 207.50 euros.
  • China
    sold 593,161 tons of wheat from reserves, or 15 percent of what was offered.  The average selling price was 2,342 yuan ($357.54) per ton.
  • IKAR
    estimated Russia 2020-21 wheat exports at 37.5 million tons, down from 40 million previous.  
  • Ukraine’s
    econ ministry lowered their grain export forecast to 44.175 million tons from 44.823 million previous.  They took corn exports down to 22.255 million tons from 22.982 million previous.  They look for monthly wheat exports to total around 900,000 to 1,000,000
    million tons each month between Jan and May, less for Feb (650k).   
  • APK-Inform
    reported Ukraine corn and 12.5% protein wheat export prices rose last week.  Wheat was up $4/ton to $255-$259/ton. Ukrainian corn was up $3 to $228-$232 fob.
  • IKAR
    reported Russian wheat export prices rose last week by $5/ton to around $257/ton for 12.5% protein content. 
  • Germany’s
    winter wheat area was projected 2.7 percent higher at 2.83 million hectares by the national statistics office.  German winter rapeseed 2021 plantings expanded by 2.6% to around 978,000 hectares.

 

Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada

 

Export
Developments.

 

Rice/Other

  • 12/21. 
    Bangladesh seeks another 50,000 tons of rice on Dec. 30. 
  • Bangladesh
    seeks 50,000 tons of rice on Dec. 22.  They bought a combined 100,000 tons on Dec. 2 and Nov 26, the country’s first rice purchase in about three years.  Bangladesh plans to import 300,000 tons of rice.
  • Egypt
    said they have enough sugar in strategic reserves until August. 
  • Iraq bought 166,000 tons of local rice. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

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