PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

USDA
export sales showed soybean complex sales on the lower end of expectations and grains lower than what was reported from the previous week. 
MPOB
issued a bearish Malaysian palm production report but third month palm futures rallied 47 ringgits. China made no changes to their corn & soybean balances. 
Conab surprised the trade by lowering total Brazil corn production by 2.3 million tons to 102.59 million, 6.8 million below a Bloomberg trade estimate.  Conab reported Brazil soybean production at 134.45 million tons, 0.5 below the previous
month and 1.2 million tons above a Bloomberg trade average. 

 

Follow
through buying is lifting the soybean complex higher.  CBOT corn is following wheat higher.  US wheat is higher on follow through buying.  All eyes will turn to Russia after the president ordered the government to curb food inflation that may affect commodity
exports. Reuters reported Russia is considering imposing a grain export quota and wheat export tax. 

 

Weather

In
Argentina, concern of dryness in the south remains. Some shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Thursday in southern Argentina and this will be important since it will then likely be a while until more meaningful moisture occurs in this part of the nation.
Another rain event will still be possible in southern Argentina Dec. 17 – 18; though, this may be erratic and is unlikely to be enough for notable soil moisture improvements. This evening’s GFS model run was much drier in western and part of central Argentina
Dec. 17 – 21. The midday GFS model run was too aggressive with the associated weather disturbance and a decrease was needed; however, some erratic shower and thunderstorm activity will be likely.

           
In Brazil, conditions will be favorable in much of the nation for crop development; though, there will be a few areas that will be left in need of greater rainfall by at least the end of the first week of the outlook. These areas will include much of Bahia,
southeastern Piaui, and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul. Rain will likely become at least a little greater week 2 of the outlook in these parts of the nation. Greater rain intensity and amounts will also still be needed in the far south; though, this area
will get some meaningful moisture Saturday into Monday.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Dec. 10:

  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand, 10am local
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board releases data on November stockpiles, exports, production, 12:30pm local
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly crop report
  • Agroinvestor
    Russian agriculture conference
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Conab’s
    data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil, 7am
  • National
    Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Friday,
Dec. 11:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

  • USDA
    soybean export sales were a low 569,000 tons, down from 768,100 tons previous week and 1.664 million tons year ago.  China booked 685,400 tons but 459,000 tons of that was switched from unknown. 
  • Soybean
    meal sales were also low at 163,600 tons (shipments 224,400 tons) and soybean oil sales were only 8,400 tons, down from 26,300 tons previous week.  SBO shipments were very good at 51,100 tons and included 34,600 for South Korea and 10,600 tons for China.
  • USDA
    corn export sales were 1.362 million tons, within expectations and down from 1.666 million previous week.  Corn sales included 141,200 tons for China and 422,200 tons for unknown. 
  • USDA
    sorghum export sales came in at 123,000 tons and included 67,900 tons for China. 
  • Pork
    sales were 26,500 tons and included 6,300 tons for China. 
  • USDA
    all-wheat export sales of 616,500 tons were down slightly from 795,800 tons previous week.  China booked 68,300 tons of wheat. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Dec 5: 853K (est 725K; prevR 716K; prev 712K)

US
Continuing Claims Nov 28: 5757K (est 5210K; prevR 5527K; prev 5520K)

US
CPI (M/M) Nov: 0.2% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
CPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Nov: 0.2% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
CPI (Y/Y) Nov: 1.2% (est 1.1%; prev 1.2%)

US
CPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Nov: 1.6% (est 1.5%; prev 1.6%)

US
Real Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 3.2% (prev 3.2%)

US
Real Avg Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 4.7% (prev 4.4%)

 

 

Corn.

  • CBOT
    March corn is higher following wheat and
    positioning
    ahead of the USDA report. 
  • Conab
    surprised the trade by lowering total Brazil corn production by 2.3 million tons to 102.59 million, 6.8 million below a Bloomberg trade estimate.  The area came in nearly 1 million hectares below expectations. 
  • China
    made no changes to their corn & soybean balances.  China left corn production and imports unchanged from the previous month in their CASDE report, at 264.7 million tons and 7.00 million, respectively.  Trade estimates for corn production range from 250.0 to
    264.7 million tons.  They left 2020-21 corn imports unchanged at 7.0 million tons despite data calling for more than 13 million tons. 
  • Separately
    China’s statistics bureau reported 2020 corn production was 260.67 million tons, below 264.7 million tons projected by CASDE.  China’s statistics bureau estimated grain production increased 0.9% to 669.49 million tons, and the planted area increased 0.6% to
    116.8 million hectares. 
  • Today
    is day 4 of the Goldman Roll.
  • Germany
    is asking China to end the pork import ban, at least for product from regions unaffected by the ASF outbreak.  Around 240 ASF cases have been confirmed in Germany since Sept. 10. All were in wild animals. 
  • France
    reported a second bird flu outbreak, in the Landes region in southwest France. 
  • Weekly
    US ethanol production was reported at its highest level since March, but demand is lowest since May.
    US
    weekly ethanol production surprised the trade by increasing 17,000 barrels per day to 991,000 barrels., above its recent high of 990,000 posted for week ending November 20, and highest since March 20.  Stocks were up a large 843,000 barrels to 22.083 million,
    highest since May 29. 
  • Coceral
    2021 EU + UK corn production was estimated at 63.1 million tons versus 62.8 million tons in 2020. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • South
    Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) bought 60,000 tons of corn from the United States at an estimated $250.25 a ton c&f for arrival around April 1. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

 

Malaysian
end of November stocks fell slightly from the previous month, but it was less than expected (by 25,500 tons).  Palm oil production was reported 56,500 tons below expectations and imports came in 40,100 tons above an average trade guess, but the higher supplies
were more than offset by lower than expected exports (by 96,700 tons) and poorer than expected implied domestic demand.  See attached PDF. 

 

Note
December 1-10 palm exports were reported as follows:

·        
ITS 402,880 tons, down 6.0% from 428,445 tons previous month

·        
AmSpec 417,960 tons, down 5.8% from 443,895 tons previous month

·        
SGS 396,099 tons, down 11.3% from 446,630 tons previous month

 

3rd
month rolling palm oil futures – monthly

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat is higher on follow through buying.  Yesterday
    Russian
    president Vladimir Putin ordered the government to contain food price inflation.  Some think wheat export restrictions will be put in place.  Reuters noted Russian incomes fell 4.8% in the third quarter after their sharpest plunge in 20 years in the preceding
    quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis. Bread, flour and sunflower oil prices rose by 6.3%, 12.9% and 23.8%, respectively – Putin. 
  • This
    morning Reuters reported Russia is considering imposing a grain export quota and wheat export tax.
  • Russia’
    Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products reported wheat exports are up 21% do far this crop-year to 23.5 million tons. 
  • FranceAgriMer
    raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union to 6.95 million tons compared with 6.85 million last month, but still 48% below the record 13.46 million tons during 2019-20.
  • EU
    March milling wheat was up 3.25 at 206.00 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on Dec 16 for arrival around March 11. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on Dec. 22.  They bought a combined 100,000 tons on Dec. 2 and Nov 26, the country’s first rice purchase in about three years.  Bangladesh plans to import 300,000 tons of rice.

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 12/3/2020

 

 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

257.2

1,595.7

1,284.3

192.0

5,141.4

4,921.7

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

29.3

400.7

525.4

22.3

1,022.8

1,455.0

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

127.5

1,475.3

1,302.8

172.9

3,767.7

3,468.7

0.0

45.0

   WHITE   

181.7

2,559.4

935.6

125.4

2,559.3

2,384.9

0.0

20.0

   DURUM  

20.9

153.1

139.0

40.1

433.1

540.7

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

616.5

6,184.2

4,187.1

552.6

12,924.2

12,771.0

0.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

28.9

32.6

1.5

13.9

26.1

0.0

0.0

CORN

1,362.2

28,567.5

8,613.3

715.0

11,087.8

6,875.8

0.0

747.0

SORGHUM

123.0

3,376.8

701.1

1.9

1,277.4

258.4

0.0

327.0

SOYBEANS

569.0

23,088.9

9,563.3

2,691.3

29,817.7

17,431.2

168.0

237.0

SOY MEAL

163.6

3,132.1

3,243.5

224.4

2,132.7

1,979.1

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

8.4

247.0

152.0

51.1

151.4

210.2

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

19.0

262.7

335.1

2.1

533.3

566.0

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

18.5

15.8

0.9

10.4

15.0

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.1

10.2

24.0

0.3

12.0

15.7

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

16.0

56.9

0.2

33.5

2.0

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

42.5

79.1

223.4

11.5

209.3

383.2

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

4.3

196.3

189.3

3.6

143.4

178.5

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

66.0

582.8

844.5

18.7

941.8

1,160.3

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

403.0

5,813.7

7,558.1

323.2

4,455.3

3,285.6

48.0

699.9

   PIMA

13.0

222.5

159.0

26.4

277.4

140.7

0.0

0.7

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period November 27-December 3, 2020.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 616,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (107,300 MT), unknown destinations (104,000 MT), Japan (88,700 MT, including decreases of
200 MT), Thailand (86,500 MT), and China (68,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Algeria (2,400 MT).  Exports of 552,600 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Japan (90,700 MT), Mexico (73,300 MT), China (68,300 MT), the Philippines (66,000 MT), and Thailand (54,800 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,362,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (422,200 MT), Mexico (408,100 MT, including decreases of 21,800 MT), China (141,200
MT), Chile (90,000 MT), and South Korea (66,600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for El Salvador (15,800 MT).  Exports of 715,000 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to China (271,300 MT), Mexico (261,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT), Costa Rica (58,900 MT), and Taiwan (21,900 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
new optional origin sales of 65,000 MT were reported for South Korea.  The current outstanding balance of 1,548,400 MT is for South Korea (834,000 MT), unknown destinations (224,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), Vietnam (130,000 MT), China (65,000 MT), Japan (58,000
MT), and Ukraine (32,400 MT). 

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,500 MT were to Japan.

Sorghum:  Net sales of 123,000 MT for
2020/2021 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (67,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and unknown destinations (55,000 MT).  Exports of 1,900 MT were down 99 percent
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.

Rice:  Net sales of 66,000 MT for 2020/2021
were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Haiti (38,000 MT), Mexico (20,000 MT), Jordan (2,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).  Exports of 18,700 MT were
down 87 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Haiti (7,200 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,200 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and Jordan (1,400 MT).

Export Adjustments:  Accumulated exports
of medium brown rice to South Korea were adjusted down 1,040 MT for weekend October 8th.  This shipment was reported in error. 

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 569,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up 40 percent from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (685,400 MT, including 459,000 switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,500 MT),
Mexico (178,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Thailand (103,800 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (95,200 MT, including 84,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Egypt (86,100 MT, including 55,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations, 27,700 MT switched from Canada, and decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (715,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 168,000 MT were for China (126,000 MT) and unknown destinations
(42,000 MT).  Exports of 2,691,300 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,899,100 MT, including 134,800 MT late – see below), Egypt (256,100 MT), the Netherlands
(115,200 MT), Thailand (109,000 MT), and Tunisia (63,200 MT).

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021,
the current outstanding balance of 63,000 MT, all China.

Exports for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 25,300 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 109,600 MT, all Canada.

Late Reporting: For 2020/2021, exports
totaling 134,800 MT were reported late.  These exports were for China.

Soybean Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 163,600 MT for 2020/2021, resulting in increases primarily for Morocco (43,000 MT), Colombia (22,000 MT), Canada (17,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), and Venezuela (14,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for
Trinidad and Tobago (500 MT).  Exports of 224,400 MT were primarily to the Philippines (75,000 MT), Bangladesh (49,500 MT), Peru (31,400 MT), Canada (30,500 MT), and Mexico (16,900 MT). 

Soybean Oil: 
Net sales of 8,400 MT for 2020/2021, primarily for South Korea (11,600 MT, including 1,600 MT switched from China), Belgium (100 MT), and Mexico (100 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (2,000 MT), Canada (800 MT), China (400 MT), and Honduras (100
MT).  Exports of 51,100 MT were primarily to the South Korea (34,600 MT), China (10,600 MT), Guatemala (4,500 MT), Honduras (900 MT), and Canada (400) MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 403,000 RB for 2020/2021 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (159,100 RB, including 3,000 RB switched from Hong Kong), Pakistan (75,900 RB), Vietnam (35,800 RB,
including 2,000 RB switched from China), Indonesia (26,800 RB), and Thailand (21,600 RB, including 3,000 RB switched from Vietnam, 1,900 RB switched from Indonesia, 700 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 600 RB), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong
(2,000 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 48,000 RB reported for Pakistan (44,000 RB), Vietnam (6,600 RB), Mexico (6,500 RB), Costa Rica (2,400 RB), and Turkey (1,800 RB), were offset by reductions for China (13,200 RB).  Exports of 323,200 RB were up 79 percent
from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (167,100 RB), Pakistan (52,300 RB), Vietnam (36,800 RB), Mexico (17,000 RB), and Bangladesh (9,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 13,000 RB were up 66 percent
from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (6,800 RB), India (2,300 RB), Egypt (2,000 RB), Thailand (900 RB, including 400 RB switched from Malaysia), and Austria (900 RB, switched from Switzerland),
were offset by reductions for Switzerland (900 RB).  Exports of 26,400 RB were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (7,900 RB), China (6,000 RB), Pakistan (2,800 RB),
Italy (1,900 RB), and Bangladesh (1,500 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 8,500 RB were to China.  Exports for own account totaling 20,900 RB to China (20,800 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance
of 29,500 RB is for China (28,200 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB). 

Hides
and Skins:

 Net sales of 332,800 pieces for 2020 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (180,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 25,600 pieces), South Korea (75,700 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,300 pieces), Mexico (43,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,900 pieces), Thailand (30,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Brazil (5,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,400
pieces), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (400 pieces). 
Additionally, total net sales
reductions of 12,000 calf skins were for Italy.  Net sales of 7,700 kip skins were reported for Belgium (5,600 kip skins) and Italy (2,100 kip skins).  For 2021, net sales of 87,400 pieces were primarily for China (35,600 whole
cattle hides), Indonesia (22,900 whole cattle hides), and Taiwan (19,000 whole cattle hides).  Additionally, total net sales of 9,500 calf skins were reported for Italy.  Net sales of 11,200 kip skins were reported for Belgium.  Exports of 368,300 pieces reported
for 2020 were up 19 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (266,500 pieces), South Korea (44,100 pieces), Mexico (35,100 pieces), Brazil (6,300 pieces), and Indonesia
(3,800 pieces). 

Net
sales of 99,500 wet blues

for 2020 were down 56 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (61,400 unsplit and 4,900 grain splits), Vietnam (11,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Taiwan (4,800 unsplit
and 200 grain splits), Mexico (3,400 unsplit and 1,200 grain splits), and Thailand (4,400 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit).  Exports of 104,700 wet blues for 2020 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (38,000 unsplit), China (24,600 unsplit and 200 grain splits), Thailand (14,400 unsplit), Italy (8,000 unsplit and 3,800 grain splits), and South Korea (5,200 grain splits).  Net sales of 86,100 splits were reported
for China (86,000 pounds) and Vietnam (100 pounds).  Exports of 159,700 pounds were to Vietnam (118,700 pounds) and China (41,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net sales of 3,000 MT reported for 2020 were down 78 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada
(1,300 MT), China (800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Indonesia (400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (4,600 MT) and Hong Kong (1,000 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 12,000 MT were primarily for South Korea (7,200 MT), Japan (1,600
MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT), China (1,000 MT), and Mexico (900 MT).  Exports of 18,200 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,100 MT), South Korea (4,400 MT), Mexico
(2,600 MT), China (1,800 MT), and Hong Kong (1,400 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 26,500 MT reported for 2020 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (10,400 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), China (6,300 MT, including decreases of 1,900 MT),
Japan (5,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (900 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), and Australia (900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Nicaragua (200 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 6,400 MT were
primarily for South Korea (1,700 MT), Japan (1,200 MT), Colombia (900 MT), the Dominican Republic (700 MT), and China (500 MT).  Exports of 42,000 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (13,300 MT), Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (5,200 MT), South Korea (3,100 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT).

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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