FI Morning Grain Comments 12/04/20

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Morning. 

 

USDA
– 182,020 corn was sold to Mexico. US economic data is supporting equity markets.  The vegetable oil market is in focus after Malaysian palm futures hit an 8-year high. Soybeans, meal, corn and wheat were all lower early this morning.  WTI was higher and USD
slightly lower.   Malaysian palm oil traded sharply higher by 105 points to 3,437 MYR, and cash was up $24.50/ton to $870.00/ton.  Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 18 lower (94 higher for the week to date) and meal $2.10 lower (2.00
lower for the week).   We heard China bought at least 3 Brazilian soybean cargoes for FH Feb and (2) July.  One March shipment was resold to a private crusher.  South Korea bought soybean meal and corn overnight. Turkey started buying wheat. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Dec. 4:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
Dec. 7:

• China
  trade data on soybean and meat imports for November
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Tuesday,
Dec. 8:

• Australia’s
  Abares releases quarterly agricultural commodities report
• French
  agriculture ministry to publish crop estimates
• UkrAgroConsult
  Black Sea Grain conference
• BRF
  Day
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• National
  Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am

Wednesday,
Dec. 9:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• National
  Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am

Thursday,
Dec. 10:

• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand, 10am local
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board releases data on November stockpiles, exports, production, 12:30pm local
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly crop report
• Agroinvestor
  Russian agriculture conference
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Conab’s
  data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil, 7am
• National
  Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
Dec. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov): 245K (est 469K, prevR 610K)

·        
Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.7% (est 6.8%, prev 6.9%)

·        
Average Earnings (Nov) Y/Y: 4.4% (est 4.3%, prev 4.5%)

US
Private Payrolls (Nov): 344K (est 589K, prevR 877K)

·        
US Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov): 27K (est 43K, prevR 33K)

·        
US Average Earnings (M/M) Nov: 0.3% (est 0.1%, prev 0.1%)

·        
US Average Workweek Hours (Nov): 34.8 (est 34.8, prev 34.8)

US
Trade Balance (Oct): $-63.1Bln (est -$64.8Bln, prevR -$62.1Bln)

Canada
Net Change In Employment (Nov): 62.1K (est 20K, prev 83.6K)

·        
Unemployment Rate (Nov): 8.5% (est 9%, prev 8.9%)

·        
Full Time Employment Change (Nov):  99.4 (prev 69.1)

·        
Part Time Employment Change (Nov): -37.4 (prev 14.5)

 

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures
  fell on lack of bullish news.  For the week, corn futures may realize their first weekly loss since October (same with soybeans).  Many of Brazil’s driest areas should see rain next week. About 90 percent of Argentina’s crop production area should see drought
  relief by mid-December, according to Commodity Weather Group.  
• The
  USD was 42 points lower and WTI crude was $0.50 higher, during midafternoon trading. 
  
• BAGE
  reported Argentina corn plantings at 35% of the projected 6.3 million hectares.
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 182,020 tons of corn to Mexico for 2020-21 delivery. 
  
• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 68,000 tons of optional origin corn at $240.19/ton c&f for arrival around May 15.  This is on top of the 68,000 tons they bought on Thursday at $239.90. 
  
• Algeria
  bought 35,000 tons of corn at around $235/ton c&f for shipment by January 5. 
  

 

Soybean
complex.  

• CBOT
  soybeans are mixed and meal lower, while soybean oil surged follow sharply higher palm oil prices that reached an 8-1/2 year high on Friday.  WTI was higher and USD slightly lower.  Malaysian palm oil traded sharply higher by 105 points to 3,437 MYR, and cash
  was up $24.50/ton to $870.00/ton.  South Korea bought soybean meal and corn overnight.
  
• South
  American weather remains in great focus. 
• Expiring
  December soybean oil continues to see support from spreading from declining registrations and with the Z/F over +100, additional deliveries could be seen next week. 
  
• We
  heard China bought at least 3 Brazilian soybean cargoes for FH Feb and (2) July.  One March shipment was resold to a private crusher.  Traders are disappointed China is staying away from the US market as the USD trends lower. 
  
• China’s
  weekly crush rate slowed from the previous week and was lowest since the second week of October, according to Cofeed.  CNGOIC also reported a decline in the crush by 200,000 tons to 1.84 million tons. 
  
• BAGE
  reported Argentina soybean plantings increased 8.9 percentage points to 48.2% of the 17.2 million hectares of the projected area.

• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 18 lower (94 higher for the week to date) and meal $2.10 lower (2.00 lower for the week).  
  
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were about 2 euros higher, rapeseed oil 5 euros higher, and Rotterdam meal unchanged to 3 euros higher from this time previous session. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins were 81 cents on out our calculation (81 previous), compared to 75 last week and 162 year ago.
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil traded sharply higher by 105 points to 3,437 MYR, and cash was up $24.50/ton to $870.00/ton.  Tight stocks are seen going forward.  Malaysia’s palm oil inventories in November were projected to decline 2% from the previous month
  to 1.54 million in part to a 10% drop in production.

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• South
  Korea’s NOFI group bought 71,000 tons of soybean meal including Chinese (12,000 tons for arrival around Jan 10) and SA (59,000 tons for arrival around June 30) at $463.00/ton c&f (SA). 
  
• South
  Korea’s MFG and KFA joined NOFI by picking up a combined 185,000 tons of soybean meal.  MFG bought 60,000 tons for arrival in South Korea around June 25 at an estimated $458.99 a ton c&f, and another 65,000 tons for arrival around July 23 at an estimated $457.46
  a ton.  KFA purchased 60,000 tons for arrival around July 25 at $457.46 a ton c&f.

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures are lower on favorable French crop conditions and slowdown in global export developments.   
  
• French
  soft wheat conditions were unchanged from the previous week at 96 for the combined good and excellent categories and compares to 73 year ago.  Durum was rated at 98%. 
  
• French
  soft wheat exports outside the EU hit a monthly (crop-year to date) season high in November of 877,000 tons, above 703,000 tons in October. 
  
• EU
  wheat hit a 5-week low.  March milling wheat was down 0.50 at 202.75 euros.
• Argentina
  BAGE: 40 percent of the wheat crop had been collected. 

 

Export
Developments.

• Turkey
  started buying wheat and secured around 330,000 tons for shipment between Jan 8 and Jan 25. 
  
• Results
  awaited:  Algeria seeks 25,000 tons of feed barley for LF January shipment. 
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on Dec 8 for March-May shipment. 
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on Dec 9 for April through FH May shipment. 
• Qatar
  seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley on December 8, optional origin. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 45,458 tons of US rice on Dec 7 for arrival around April 30 and May 31.