FI Morning Grain Comments 12/02/21

PDF attached does not include USDA export sales tables due to incomplete data

 

Good
morning

 

Private
exporters reported the following:

164,100
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

130,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

OPEC+
Agrees To Go Ahead With Planned January Oil Output Rise – RTRS Citing OPEC+ Source.  WTI plunged post OPEC announcement and USD 13 points lower at the time this was written. The soybean complex, corn and wheat were higher overnight on talk of renewed demand.
USDA export sales were disappointing (exception soy products, sorghum and pork). All-wheat export sales were a marketing year lower. China was again thought to have bought US soybeans. China was said to have bought about 10 boats of Ukrainian corn. Offshore
values are leading soybean oil 37 points higher and meal $1.90 lower. CBOT crush margins are higher. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat, 92,000 tons of durum, and 100,000 tons of feed barley.  Jordan is in for wheat. Saudi Arabia is back in 535,000
tons of wheat. Japan bought food wheat, as expected. World food prices rose for a fourth straight month in November to 134.4 points last month compared with a revised 132.8 for October.

 

Weather

                                                                                                                    

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 2, 2021

• Argentina
  is still advertised to trend drier over the  next ten days to two weeks raising the  potential for some crop moisture stress as mid-month approaches
• Brazil’s
  south will also experience net drying over the next ten days to two weeks with a little crop moisture stress beginning next week in some of the rice and southern corn areas and in the following week possibly in northern soybeans areas
• Uruguay
  and southern Paraguay will also dry down over the next ten days to two weeks
• Center
  west through northern parts of center south Brazil and portions of northeastern Brazil will experience frequent rain supporting mostly very good soybean, corn, rice, sugarcane, citrus and coffee development potential
• Australia’s
  previously water-logged crop areas of eastern New South Wales and Queensland are getting a break from frequent rain into the  weekend
• Some
  showers will resume next week, but their frequency and intensity will not be nearly as great as that of the past two weeks
• Queensland
  should be wetter than New South Wales
• Excellent
  crop maturation and harvest weather will continue from Western Australia through South Australia to western crop areas in New South Wales and northwestern Victoria
• India
  will be impacted by a tropical cyclone Saturday through Monday from Odisha through Bangladesh with coastal areas getting excessive rain and strong wind speeds
• China’s
  weather will remain relatively tranquil for a while
• Europe’s
  weather will be active enough to bolster soil moisture in many areas, but especially in the west during the next ten days
• Western
  parts of the CIS will cool down while waves of rain and snow impact areas west of the  Ural Mountains
• North
  Africa will get some rain in the next ten days, but Morocco will not do well and will still need moisture for its drought-stricken southwest
• South
  Africa will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks supporting summer crop planting and establishment
• West
  Africa will continue drying down seasonably
• Southeast
  Asia crop weather will be plenty wet from Philippines through Indonesia and Malaysia

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Dec. 2:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Gapki’s
  Indonesian Palm Oil Conference, day 2

Friday,
Dec. 3:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Canada’s
  Statcan releases wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybean production data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Statistics
Canada
will release Canadian crop production on Friday at 7:30 a.m. CST.  Traders are looking for all-wheat to be up about 500,000 tons from September (durum average 100,000 tons below Sep.), and a slightly upward revision to barley, corn and soybeans. For canola,
the average trade guess suggests no change.

 

Brazil
selected commodity exports

Commodity
                                        November 2021                November 2020

CRUDE
OIL (TNS) 3,793,585 5,273,883

IRON
ORE (TNS) 28,992,000      29,148,348

SOYBEANS
(TNS) 2,587,139 1,435,661

CORN
(TNS)            2,403,244 4,732,624

GREEN
COFFEE(TNS)     175,104         275,841

SUGAR
(TNS)           2,674,338 2,903,503

BEEF
(TNS)            81,174          167,736

POULTRY
(TNS)         305,910         324,176

PULP
(TNS)            1,431,858 1,476,269

 

USDA
export sales
overall were disappointing, with a couple exceptions.  USDA export sales were a marketing year low for all-wheat at 79,900 tons with a few minor reductions.  This was a surprise. Soybean sales were ok at 1.063 million tons. Most of the Chinese sales of 657,100
tons were switched from unknown (462,000 switched).  Soybean meal sales amounted to 146,700 tons, within expectations and shipments were good at 263,900 tons.  Soybean oil sales of 49,300 tons were within expectations. Corn sales of 1.021 million tons were
within expectations and Mexico (423,800 MT, including decreases of10,200 MT), Canada (198,200 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), and Japan (118,400 MT switched from unknown destinations). Sorghum sales were 284,700 tons (China 337,700 MT, including 118,300
MT switched from unknown destinations). Pork sales were 41,400 tons (China 12,400 tons).

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims: 222K (est 240K, prevR 194K)

US
Continuing Claims: 1956Mln (est 2Mln, prevR 2.063Mln)

OPEC+
Agrees To Go Ahead With Planned January Oil Output Rise – RTRS Citing OPEC+ Source

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is higher on talk of renewed demand. Export sales were ok. WTI turned lower after OPEC agreed to increase crude oil production and that could put some pressure on corn.

·        
Sweden reported a bird flu outbreak on a small farm in the southern part of the country.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the United States up 2 percent from year ago and chicks placed up 4 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through November 27, 2021 for the United States
were 8.71 billion. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·        
Weekly US ethanol production fell 44,000 barrels (trade looking for down 4,000) to 1.035 million from the previous week and stocks increased 137,000 barrels to 20.301 million, slightly larger than expected. Production was lowest
since October 8 but at 1.035 still considered a good pace.

·        
USDA’s October grain crush showed 469 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production, one million above expectations and well above 434 million year ago.  The record amount used for any month was 488 million (December 2017). 
We will leave our corn for ethanol use unchanged (75 million above USDA) at 5.325 billion bushels. 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans
and meal are higher on additional talk China bought US soybeans overnight.  Soybean oil opened lower on weakness in WTI crude oil. 24-hour sales to China and unknown verified the buying.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 37 points higher and meal $1.90 short ton lower.

·        
Rotterdam meal values were 5-9 euros higher and vegetable oils 5-35 euros higher from yesterday morning.

·        
Malaysia

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.25, versus $2.17 at the end of last week (unchanged) and compares to $0.81 a year ago.

·        
China

·        
USDA’s NASS department reported the October US soybean crush at 196.9 million bushels, 1.6 million above trade expectations and 400,000 above October 2020.  This is a record for any month in terms of volume. But the daily crush
of 6.35 million bushels per day fell short of the absolute record of 6.37 million during November 2020. Last year the daily rate was 6.34 million per day.  Soybean oil production, as expected, was a record for any month. US soybeans stocks came in at 2.383
billion pounds, 48 million above an average trade guess (Bloomberg), highest level since May 2020, and well above 1.968 billion pounds year earlier.  We will upward revise our crop year soybean crush by one and two million bushels, respectively, for the soybean
and product crop cycle to 2.224 (Sep-Aug) and 2.216 (Oct-Sep) billion bushels, well above USDA’s working 2.190 billion estimate.  End of October soybean meal stocks increased to 411,000 short tons from 341,000 short tons at the end of September and compare
to 374,000 short tons October 2020. 

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported the following:

-164,100
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

-130,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is higher after Saudi Arabia issued another import tender and Tunisia bought wheat.  The weakness in the USD is also supporting prices.

·        
March Matif Paris wheat was 6.00 euros higher at 293.25 as of 8:10 am CT. Traders should keep an eye on the March wheat 293-50-297.00 gap.

·        
World food prices rose for a fourth straight month in November to 134.4 points last month compared with a revised 132.8 for October.

·        
CBOT Chicago wheat deliveries were lighter than yesterday at 204 (2,255 total).

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat, 92,000 tons of durum, and 100,000 tons of feed barley. 

·        
Saudi Arabia is back in 535,000 tons of wheat on Friday for arrival between May and July 2022.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat at $351.50/ton c&f for second half June shipment.  They were in for 120,000 tons.

·        
Japan bought only 26,263 tons of food wheat from the US. They may have passed on 25,510 tons. Original details as follows.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on Dec. 8. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 22,000 tons of rice from the US on December 9 for arrival in South Korea from May 2022 and from August 2022.

 

 

 

USDA
export sales.

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period November 19-25, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 86 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (38,400 MT), Mexico (16,800 MT, including decreases of 2,300 MT),
Malaysia (9,000 MT, including 10,400 MT switched from the Philippines and decreases of 1,800 MT), El Salvador (7,000 MT), and Guatemala (4,300 MT), were offset by reductions for Peru (1,400 MT), the Philippines (600 MT), and Indonesia (200 MT).  Total net
sales of 26,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for Colombia.  Exports of 371,400 MT were up 87 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (184,400 MT), Taiwan (52,100 MT), Mexico
(48,400 MT), Malaysia (28,400 MT), and Honduras (21,000 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,020,800 MT for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (423,800 MT, including decreases of 10,200 MT), Canada (198,200 MT, including decreases of 1,100
MT), Japan (118,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (88,900 MT, including 52,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 53,500 MT), and Costa Rica (76,500 MT, including 9,300 MT switched from Guatemala and decreases of 4,100
MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (4,200 MT).  Total net sales of 300 MT for 2022/2023 were for Costa Rica.  Exports of 938,400 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to Mexico (382,400 MT), China (138,000 MT), Japan (118,500 MT), Colombia (110,800 MT), and Canada (49,000 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 498,700 MT is for unknown destinations (429,000 MT), Italy (60,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,000 MT were unchanged the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Japan.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 284,700 MT for 2021/2022 resulting in increases for China (337,700 MT, including 118,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (53,000 MT).  Exports of 186,900 MT were down 13 percent from the
previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (186,700 MT) and Mexico (200 MT).

Rice:
 Net
sales of 32,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 56 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for El Salvador (8,000 MT), Mexico (7,300 MT), Iraq (7,100 MT), Haiti (2,100 MT), and Saudi Arabia (2,100 MT), were
offset by reductions for Costa Rica (1,500 MT).  Exports of 105,000 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 6 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Iraq (44,000 MT), Israel (19,200 MT),
Costa Rica (10,300 MT), Haiti (9,100 MT), and El Salvador (7,800 MT).

Exports
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 1,063,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (657,100 MT, including 462,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,200 MT),
Egypt (68,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,900 MT), Thailand (67,600 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Germany (66,900 MT), and Bangladesh (62,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (43,000 MT) and Turkey (9,800 MT).  Total net sales reductions of 48,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 2,327,100 MT were up 3 percent from
the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,410,200 MT), Egypt (311,400 MT), Taiwan (97,700 MT), Mexico (94,500 MT), and Thailand (71,200 MT).

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 59,400 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100,600 MT, all Canada.

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 66,910 MT for week ending November 11^th.  The correct destination for this shipment is Germany. 

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 146,700 MT for 2021/2022 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Guatemala (50,000 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), unknown destinations (28,000 MT), Mexico (24,800
MT, including decreases of 3,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (24,000 MT), and Canada (7,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Thailand (4,600 MT), Belgium (2,100 MT), Colombia (1,200 MT), and the Leeward Windward Islands (100 MT).  Net sales reductions of
1,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for Japan (600 MT) and the Netherlands (400 MT).  Exports of 263,900 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (92,200 MT),
Thailand (45,400 MT), Colombia (26,800 MT), Mexico (26,400 MT), and Canada (22,200 MT). 

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 49,300 MT for 2021/2022 were up 17 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (30,000 MT), Algeria (22,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (19,200 MT), Guatemala (18,000
MT), and the Dominican Republic (600 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (22,000 MT) and Morocco (19,000 MT).  Exports of 44,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Algeria
(22,000 MT), South Korea (19,000 MT), Mexico (2,900 MT), and Canada (500 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 374,900 RB for 2021/2022 were up 90 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (147,100 RB, including 1,600 RB switched from China, 200 RB switched from Japan, and decreases
of 200 RB), China (123,600 RB), Turkey (55,000 RB), Pakistan (36,600 RB), and South Korea (2,300 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from Vietnam), were offset by reductions for Malaysia (200 RB).  Exports of 71,400 RB were down 27 percent from the previous week
and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (23,700 RB), Mexico (14,800 RB), Vietnam (9,000 RB), Turkey (6,000 RB), and Pakistan (5,800 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 6,400 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 65
percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (2,600 RB), Thailand (1,300 RB), India (1,000 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), and Egypt (400 RB), were offset by reductions for Bangladesh (900 RB).  Exports
of 2,300 RB were down 63 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to India (1,000 RB), Turkey (400 RB), Pakistan (400 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Peru (100 RB).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan. 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 100 RB is for Vietnam. 

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 334,500 pieces for 2021 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (178,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 7,700 pieces), Mexico (58,800 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 1,300 pieces), Thailand (45,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), South Korea (42,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,500 pieces), and Cambodia (5,300 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions
primarily for Vietnam (2,000 pieces) and Canada (1,800 pieces).  Net sales of 68,600 pieces for 2022 were primarily for China (44,500 whole cattle hides), Mexico (10,900 whole cattle hides), Italy (6,500 whole cattle hides), and Vietnam (3,600 whole cattle
hides).  Exports of 374,000 pieces were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China (267,700 pieces), South Korea (47,700 pieces), Mexico (22,400 pieces), Thailand
(15,000 pieces), and Indonesia (8,400 pieces).

Net
sales of 146,400 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Vietnam (77,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 pieces), China (53,900 unsplit, including decreases of
100 unsplit), Italy (11,200 grain splits, 1,500 unsplit, and decreases of 100 unsplit), Mexico (2,600 unsplit), and Hong Kong (1,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Brazil (1,200 unsplit), Japan (400 grain splits), and Thailand (100 unsplit).  Net
sales of 17,800 wet blues for 2022 were reported for China (5,600 unsplit), Brazil (4,200 unsplit), Italy (4,000 unsplit), and Hong Kong (4,000 unsplit).  Exports of 134,100 wet blues were up 28 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (45,100 unsplit and 5,500 grain splits), Vietnam (36,400 unsplit), China (26,800 unsplit), Thailand (13,000 unsplit), and Japan (3,600 grain splits). 
Net
sales of 340,500 splits were reported for China (209,900 splits, including decreases of 100 splits) and Vietnam (130,600 splits).  Total net sales reductions of 117,700 splits for 2022 were for Vietnam.  Exports of 201,000 pounds were to Vietnam (160,000 pounds)
and China (41,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net sales of 21,600 MT for 2021 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (10,700 MT, including decreases of 3,100 MT), China (3,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan
(2,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), and Chile (900 MT), were offset by reductions for Italy (100 MT) and Thailand (100 MT).  Net sales of 10,400 MT for 2022 primarily for South Korea (7,000 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), Vietnam (300 MT),
Taiwan (300 MT), and Hong Kong (200 MT), were offset by reductions for China (100 MT).  Exports of 16,500 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,500 MT),
Japan (4,000 MT), China (3,000 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 41,400 MT for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (19,600 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), China (12,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan
(3,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Net sales of 4,100 MT for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (1,500 MT), Canada (1,300 MT), Chile (400
MT), Colombia (300 MT), and Mexico (200 MT).  Exports of 36,500 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (19,800 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), China
(3,100 MT), and Colombia (1,900 MT).

December
2, 2021                                           1                            FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA