FI Morning Grain Comments 11/23/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USD
turned lower and WTI is lower. US equity indexes are mixed. March Paris wheat hit a fresh contract high. US wheat futures are lower for Chicago, mostly lower for Minneapolis, and KC turned mixed. USDA reported a decline in the US winter wheat rating. The soybean
complex is selling off this morning. Argentina is projected to see a little more rain this weekend than previously projected. Corn is lower. South Korea’s MFG bought 48,500 tons of SA corn and 16,000 tons of SA soybean meal. Rain is in the forecast for eastern
Australia and threatens wheat quality. The above normal rainfall is a result from La Nina strengthening. New South Whales may see 30-40% of production at risk, according to a Reuters article. Turkey bought 6k sunflower oil and 370k barley. There is no major
US weather risk during the balance of this month but it will remain dry across the southern Great Plains.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 23, 2021

• Australia’s
  wet weather bias remains in place with rain in the east today through Thursday and then some lingering rain this weekend and next week in eastern winter crop areas of New South Wales.
  
• The
  moisture is great for unirrigated summer crops, but not very good for unharvested winter wheat, barley or canola quality.
  
• In
  South America there is a little more rain suggested for Argentina this weekend after rain falls Wednesday and then drier weather is advertised for next week.
  
• The
  bottom line remains good for the nation, though.
• Brazil
  is also experiencing a good mix of weather, despite the fact that rainfall has been less than usual in the south most of this month (classic La Nina).
  
• Europe
  and western parts of the CIS will experience increasing frequency of snow and rain during the next two weeks
  
• Southern
  India will stay too wet in some areas.
• China
  will experience a dry biased pattern for a while after snow ends in the northeast today.
  
• South
  and North Africa still need greater rain and should get it in the next two weeks. 
• Coffee,
  cocoa, sugarcane and rice production areas around the world should see a favorable mix of weather, although some areas in Indonesia and Malaysia will be wetter biased
  
• Recent
  lighter rainfall biases in northern South America (Colombia in particular) has been welcome
• Southern
  India has been a little too wet and drier weather is needed
• Improved
  sugarcane conditions are expected in eastern Australia

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 23:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar and cane production data (tentative)
• Council
  of Palm Oil Producing Countries online webinar
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Wednesday,
Nov. 24:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm

Thursday,
Nov. 25:

• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-25 palm oil exports
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  U.S.

Friday,
Nov. 26:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
177,799                 versus   200000-500000  range

Corn                     
618,490                 versus   600000-1000000                range

Soybeans           
1,684,138             versus   1100000-2500000             range

 

Macros

Philadelphia
Fed Non-Manufacturing Regional Business Activity Index Nov: 46.1 (prev 33.4)

–
Firm Level Business Activity 47.0 (prev 34.3)

–
New Orders 19.2 (prev 14.6)

–
Full Time Employment 15.2 (prev 12.5)

–
Wage And Benefit Cost Index 60.0 (prev 51.3)

Canada
October Manufacturing Sales Most Likely Rose By 4.1% – Statscan Flash Estimate

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower as the US corn harvest season is nearing completion. 95 percent of the US corn and 95 percent soybean harvest is complete. South Korea continues to turn to South America for corn and soybean meal.

·        
Oat futures are sharply lower this morning.

·        
USD turned lower and nearby WTI was down 18 cents.

·        
A shortage of food cans is straining the supply of cranberry sauce ahead of the US Thanksgiving Holiday, another reminder of shipping woes seen across the agriculture industry.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of November 18, 2021, were 618,490 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 866,891 tons previous week and compares to 833,297 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 246,456
tons, China for 210,456 tons, and Japan for 93,673 tons. Note China corn shipments were just 931 tons for the previous week.

·        
The December options expire Friday.

·        
Yesterday Ukraine’s AgMin increased the 2021 corn crop by a large 2.9 million tons to a record 40.0 million tons. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
South Korea’s MFG bought 48,500 tons of corn from South America at an estimated $318.25 a ton for arrival around April 25.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans, meal and soybean oil are all lower in a risk off trade. Argentina is projected to see a little more rain this weekend than previously projected. US soybean meal basis softened yesterday across several US domestic
locations. 

·        
95 percent of the US corn and 95 percent soybean harvest is complete.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.9%, meal 1.2% higher, SBO unchanged, and palm up down 0.9%.  Hog futures decreased slightly in China.    

·        
Malaysian February palm futures were down 34 ringgit and cash was down $5.00 at $1,257.50/ton. 

·        
Rotterdam meal values were mostly lower euros higher and vegetable oils mixed.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 180 points lower and meal $1.30 short ton lower. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.20/bu ($2.31 previous), compared to $2.30 at the end of last week and compares to $0.75 a year ago. 

·        
China

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of November 18, 2021 were 1,684,138 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 2,362,473 tons previous week and compares to 2,290,778 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,231,622 tons, Mexico for 91,575 tons, and Thailand for 80,462 tons. Soybean shipments to China were down from 1.32MMT week ago. 

 

Export
Developments

·        
South Korea’s MFG bought 16,000 tons of soybean meal at an estimated $452.00/ton c&f for arrival around April 25.

·        
Turkey bought 6,000 tons of sunflower oil at an estimated $1,471/ton c&f for Dec 1-20 shipment. 

 

Wheat

·        
March Paris wheat hit a fresh contract high. US wheat futures are lower for Chicago, lower for Minneapolis, and mixed to higher in KC. USDA reported a decline in the US winter wheat rating. Rain is in the forecast for eastern
Australia and threatens wheat quality. The above normal rainfall is a result from La Nina strengthening. New South Whales may see 30-40% of production at risk, according to a Reuters article.

·        
March Matif Paris wheat was 3.00 euros higher at 308.75 as of 7.15 am CT.  Nearly 36,000 Matif wheat options traded yesterday. March 300 and 210 call strikes were very active.

·        
There is no major US weather risk during the balance of this month but it will remain dry across the southern Great Plains.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat to last five months. 

·        
Russia’s Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products reported wheat exports are down 18% through November 18 from the same period year ago to 17.2 million tons.

·        
Ukraine will see rain through the end of this month, benefiting recently planted winter grains but also could delay corn harvesting.

·        
The northern US should see net drying bias WCB this week. The southern US will see restricted rain over the next week.

·        
US wheat conditions fell 2 points to 44 percent and compare to 43 percent year ago.  With US winter wheat plantings at 96% (normal for this time of year), US wheat is 86 percent emerged, one point below 5-year average.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of November 18, 2021 were 177,799 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 390,708 tons previous week and compares to 363,648 tons year ago. Major countries included Korea Rep for
49,235 tons, Mexico for 46,107 tons, and Japan for 33,260 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Turkey bought 370,000 tons of feed barley at $349.85-$362.90/ton for January shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 24.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on November 25 for shipment between March 16-31, April 1-15, April 16-30 and May 1-15.

·        
Turkey seeks 385,000 tons of wheat on November 25.

·        
Iraq seeks 500,000 tons of wheat starting in December for an unknown shipment period. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported