FI Morning Grain Comments 11/19/20

Nov 19, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Higher
USD and lower outside markets are creating a wave of profit taking in US ag markets.  Egypt cancelled their import tender.  The lowest offer in Egypt’s import tender was $1,076.70/ton for soybean oil and $1,172 for sunflower.  SK bought 132,000 tons of corn. 
Jordan is back in for wheat and barley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 19:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 2
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 3
  • Vietnam
    farm ministry’s conference on African swine fever, Ho Chi Minh City
  • BASF
    roundtable on sustainability in farming
  • USDA
    Red Meat Production

Friday,
Nov. 20:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 3
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

  • Soybean
    export sales of 1.388 million tons were a marketing year low and included 1.061 million tons for China.  Product sales included 182,100 tons for soybean meal and 45,100 tons for soybean oil.  The soybean oil sales were perceived to be supportive.  It included
    25,500 tons for South Korea and 19,400 tons for the Dominican Republic. 
  • Wheat
    sales of 192,400 tons were below expectations. 
  • Corn
    export sales of 1.089 million tons were slightly above expectations and included China for 174,700 tons. 
  • Sorghum
    sales were good at 117,900 tons.  China was in there for 131,200 tons but included 68,000 tons switched from unknown. 
  • Pork
    sales of 28,900 tons and China was a small part of that amount. 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

 

 

 

Corn.

  • CBOT
    corn open interest was up 2,193 contracts.

  • Weekly
    ethanol production declined 15,000 barrels to 962,000, first decline since mid-October.  Stocks increased 44,000 barrels to 20.203 million, highest since August 28.   
  • USDA
    Broiler Report showed eggs set for the week ending November 14 down 2 percent from a year ago and chicks placed down 2 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through November 14, 2020 for the United States were 8.49 billion. Cumulative
    placements were down 1 percent from the same period a year earlier. 

  • A
    Bloomberg survey sees US cattle on feed placements down 9.7 percent from a year ago. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Awaiting
    results: Iranian state-owned SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of animal feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.

 

 

Soybean
complex.  

  • CBOT
    soybean open interest was up 3,210 contracts.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Today
    the USDA CCC seeks 14,720 tons of soybean oil for Peru on November 19 for Feb 1-10 shipment. 
  • South
    Korea’s Agro-Fisheries seeks 75,000 tons of non-GMO soybeans on November 24 for Jan-Jun 2022 arrival. 
  • Results
    awaited: Iranian state-owned SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of animal feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal, on Wednesday, Nov. 18, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • In an SBS import
    tender, on November 25, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Qatar seeks 100,000
    tons of feed barley on December 8, optional origin. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Turkey seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 23 for Dec-early Jan shipment.

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 26, valid until December 10, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.  This is the first import tender in three years. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Export Sales Highlights 

  • Wheat:  Net sales of 192,400 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 36 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (125,000 MT),
    Mexico (28,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Japan (25,400 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (1,100 MT), Panama (800 MT), and the United Arab Emirates (100 MT).  Exports of 270,500 MT were down 24 percent from the previous week and
    17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (78,900 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Taiwan (52,000 MT), South Korea (34,700 MT), and Panama (24,400 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:   For 2020/2021, the current outstanding
    balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain.
  • Corn:  Net sales of 1,088,600 MT for 2020/2021 were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (244,300 MT, including decreases of 2,300 MT),
    Japan (203,400 MT, including 57,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 51,100 MT), China (174,700  MT), Colombia (171,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and Taiwan (138,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),
    were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (162,000 MT), Guatemala (28,300 MT), and France (20,000 MT).   Exports of 844,600 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
    primarily to China (278,700 MT), Mexico (205,200 MT), Japan (159,400 MT), Venezuela (67,500 MT late – see below), and Peru (52,100 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:   For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 68,000 MT were reported for South Korea.   Decreases
    totaling 130,000 MT were reported for Vietnam.  The current outstanding balance of 1,320,600 MT is for South Korea (505,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), Japan (188,000 MT), unknown destinations (167,600 MT), Vietnam (130,000 MT), China (65,000 MT), and Ukraine
    (60,000 MT).  Late Reporting:   For 2020/2021, net sales and exports totaling 67,500 MT were reported late. These sales and exports were reported for Venezuela.
  • Barley:  No net sales or exports were reported for the week.
  • Sorghum:  Net sales of 117,900 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (131,200 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations) and Eritrea (30,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were offset
    by reductions for unknown destinations (30,000 MT) and Japan (13,900 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 68,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations.  Exports of 254,900 MT were to China (199,200 MT), Eritrea (30,600 MT), and Japan (25,100 MT). 
  • Rice:  Net sales of 56,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up 77 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (40,400 MT), Haiti (6,200 MT, including decreases
    of 1,000 MT), Jordan (4,700 MT), Canada (1,800 MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,300 MT).  Exports of 85,500 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Nicaragua (24,200 MT), Honduras
    (22,400 MT), Haiti (21,400 MT), Mexico (9,700 MT), and Canada (3,400 MT).   Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.
  • Soybeans:  Net sales of 1,387,700 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 6 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,060,800 MT, including
    528,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,000 MT), Mexico (155,900 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Spain (144,700 MT, including 122,300 MT switched from unknown destinations MT), Taiwan (83,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT),
    and Indonesia (77,700 MT, including 16,500 MT switched from Taiwan and decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (436,600 MT).  Exports of 2,558,500 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior
    4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,844,900 MT), Egypt (169,900 MT), Mexico (126,700 MT), Spain (124,700 MT), and Taiwan (59,700 MT).   Optional Origin Sales:   For 2020/2021, options were exercised to export 63,000 MT to China from
    the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 63,000 MT, all China. Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account of 54,700 MT were reported for Canada.  Exports for own account of 57,300 MT for Canada were applied to new or
    outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 29,800 MT, all Canada.
  • Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 182,100 MT for 2020/2021, resulting in increases primarily for Mexico (63,100 MT, including decreases of 4,200 MT), Venezuela (33,700 MT, late – see below), Ecuador (27,800 MT, including
    30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,800 MT), Denmark (27,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (27,100 MT, including decreases of 17,700 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown
    destinations (55,000 MT).  Exports of 317,700 MT were primarily to Ecuador (56,500 MT), the Philippines (48,000 MT), Colombia (43,500 MT), Mexico (40,400 MT), and Venezuela (33,700 MT, late – see below).  Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, net sales and exports
    totaling 33,700 MT were reported late.  These sales and exports were reported for Venezuela.
  • Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 45,100 MT for 2020/2021, resulting in increases primarily for South Korea (25,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (19,400 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), and Guatemala (400 MT, including decreases of 100
    MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (3,200 MT).   Exports of 2,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (2,200 MT) and Canada (500 MT).
  • Cotton:  Net sales of 131,400 RB for 2020/2021 were down 45 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (64,000 RB, including 4,700 RB switched from China
    and 2,100 RB switched from Japan), Pakistan (33,100 RB), Turkey (22,500 RB), Indonesia (13,100 RB, including 2,900 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 300 RB), and Malaysia (5,500 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for China (24,200 RB) and Japan
    (5,000 RB).  Exports of 277,300 RB were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (134,700 RB), Pakistan (34,800 RB), Vietnam (33,700 RB), Turkey (17,600 RB), and Mexico (13,900
    RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 4,600 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 77 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Turkey (1,600 RB), Thailand (1,200 RB), El Salvador (600 RB), Peru (500
    RB), and Taiwan (400 RB).  Exports of 19,100 RB were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (4,600 RB), Vietnam (3,200 RB), India (3,200 RB), Peru (2,700 RB), and Bangladesh
    (2,300 RB).  Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account of 4,500 RB were reported for China.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 11,700 RB is for China (10,400 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), and Indonesia (300
    RB).
  • Hides and Skins:  Net sales of 273,300 pieces for 2020 were down 29 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (131,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases
    of 26,300 pieces), South Korea (67,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 7,900 pieces), Mexico (23,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 8,000 pieces), Thailand (19,500 whole cattle hides), and Taiwan (14,700 whole cattle hides, including
    decreases of 900 pieces), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (100 pieces).  Additionally, total net sales reductions of 300 calf skins were for Italy.  Net sales of 2,900 kip skins reported for China (2,600 kip skins) and Italy (900 kip skins, including
    decreases of 100 kip skins), were offset by reductions for Belgium (600 kip skins).  Exports of 471,200 pieces reported for 2020 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily
    to China (368,800 pieces), Mexico (43,000 pieces), South Korea (22,400 pieces), Taiwan (9,600 pieces), and Brazil (8,000 pieces).  Exports of 1,800 calf skins were to Italy. In addition, exports of 9,800 kip skins were to Belgium (7,800 kip skins) and Italy
    (2,000 kip skins). 
  • Net sales of 82,000 wet blues for 2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Vietnam (46,000 unsplit, including decreases of 4,100 unsplit),
    China (19,800 unsplit, including decreases of 7,500 unsplit), Thailand (7,700 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), Taiwan (5,000 unsplit), and Mexico (3,400 unsplit).  Exports of 131,300 wet blues for 2020 were down 17 percent from the previous week
    and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (44,400 unsplit and 1,800 grain splits), China (46,000 unsplit), Thailand (28,200 unsplit), Brazil (5,700 grain splits), and Taiwan (3,000 unsplit).  Net sales of 778,100
    splits were primarily for Vietnam (725,800 pounds, including decreases of 11,200 pounds).  For 2021, net sales reductions of 78,400 splits resulting in increases for China (30,600 pounds), were more than offset by reductions for Vietnam (109,000 pounds). 
    Total exports of 449,900 pounds were to Vietnam.
  • Beef:    Net sales of 46,400 MT reported for 2020–a marketing-year–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (17,300 MT, including decreases
    of 800 MT), Mexico (10,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (7,000 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Hong Kong (3,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Taiwan (2,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 14,100 MT were
    primarily for South Korea (8,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), and Hong Kong (900 MT).  Exports of 22,300 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 58 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South
    Korea (6,200 MT), Japan (5,900 MT), Mexico (2,600 MT), China (2,200 MT), and Hong Kong (1,700 MT).
  • Pork:   Net sales of 28,900 MT reported for 2020 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (8,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada
    (5,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (5,000 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Japan (3,900 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), and China (2,100 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (100 MT). 
    For 2021, net sales of 2,300 MT were primarily for China (900 MT), South Korea (700 MT), and the Philippines (200 MT).   Exports of 38,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
    to China (13,100 MT), Mexico (12,000 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,800 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 11/12/2020

 





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR

AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR

AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

27.5

1,567.2

1,187.9

60.9

4,646.2

4,606.5

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

2.1

412.9

509.6

10.1

954.8

1,365.9

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

9.1

1,459.7

1,173.0

103.2

3,377.8

3,116.9

0.0

45.0

   WHITE   

152.7

2,031.5

782.6

94.4

2,256.2

2,203.2

0.0

20.0

   DURUM  

1.0

201.9

257.0

1.8

341.9

412.2

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

192.4

5,673.0

3,910.0

270.5

11,576.8

11,704.6

0.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

31.0

35.0

0.0

11.8

23.6

0.0

0.0

CORN

1,088.6

26,826.7

8,048.4

844.6

8,429.4

5,214.3

0.0

747.0

SORGHUM

117.9

2,995.9

717.3

254.9

940.9

101.1

68.0

327.0

SOYBEANS

1,387.7

28,940.9

11,352.4

2,558.5

22,347.1

12,244.0

0.0

69.0

SOY MEAL

182.1

3,381.5

3,333.9

317.7

1,417.7

1,375.8

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

45.1

291.0

187.4

2.9

70.1

119.3

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

39.9

391.3

378.0

54.2

332.9

452.9

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

19.6

17.7

0.7

9.3

13.1

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.1

10.7

13.9

0.2

11.2

14.5

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

19.7

56.0

0.1

31.0

1.7

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

9.9

79.8

138.8

26.6

143.6

333.5

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

6.3

157.2

187.1

3.7

112.1

159.0

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

56.3

678.4

791.5

85.5

640.1

974.7

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

131.4

5,465.1

7,373.3

277.3

3,768.3

2,748.1

0.0

591.6

   PIMA

4.6

250.5

165.9

19.1

201.7

114.3

0.0

0.7

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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