FI Morning Grain Comments 11/18/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USD
is 5 points lower and WTI flat. CBOT ags are firmer this morning on the same news. USDA export sales were good all around. Outside related agriculture markets are supportive. Palm oil was higher and Matif wheat is rallying. Global import demand for wheat remains
strong. The soybean complex is higher led by soybean oil. Corn is catching a bid despite ongoing talk of US feed end users scaling back on corn demand.

 

The
US Great Plains will remain mostly dry through the end of the month, increasing concerns over the shortage of topsoil moisture. The Midwest will see rain across the eastern and southern areas through Saturday. Brazil looks good over the next week.
Some areas of southern Brazil will remain dry through the end of the month.  Argentina will trend drier through Monday and rain will be limited next week.   

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 18, 2021

• Central
  Argentina has a chance for a little more rain in today’s forecast relative to that of Wednesday
• Brazil
  will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next ten days favoring crop development
• U.S.
  weather will continue dry biased in the Plains, western Midwest, the southeastern states and from central and southern California into the southern Rocky Mountain region and southwestern desert area
• Lower
  and eastern parts of the Midwest will see some periodic rain as will the Delta and Tennessee River Basin
  
• Late
  season farming activity should advance well
• Australia
  has more rain in eastern New South Wales crop areas Friday into the weekend to delay winter crop harvesting
• Some
  concern over crop quality will linger, but next week looks to be drier
• Other
  areas in Australia should experience a mostly good environment for crops and farming activity
• China
  will see significant snow in the northeast in this coming week while rain falls periodically near and south of the Yangtze River which is indifferent from that predicted Wednesday
• Europe
  will be wetter in the second week of the forecast while this first week still is somewhat tranquil except for some rain in the west
• Russia
  and Ukraine will get snow and some rain during the next two weeks with snow cover reaching southward to the Ukraine border over time and west to Belarus and the Baltic States
• Western
  South Africa still needs greater rain, but it should fall in the last week of this month
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane production areas around the world should see favorable crop weather prevail

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 18:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  FAS releases world sugar market balance, trade report, 3pm
• China’s
  trade data, including corn, wheat, sugar and cotton imports
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Singapore
  International Agri-Food Week, day 4
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference, day 3
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum: session on Feeding the World at 11:20am Singapore
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Nov. 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Saturday,
Nov. 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Good
sales all around.  USDA export sales for soybeans of 1.383 million topped expectations and included 727,500 tons for China (394k were switched from unknown). Crop year to date soybean sales are running 32 percent below last year’s pace. Soybean meal sales
were 183,000 tons, within expectations and shipments were 230,500 tons, up from 166,400 tons previous week.  Soybean oil sales were 67,500 tons that included the 22,000 ton 24-hour sale to unknown. Dominican Republic booked 19,500 tons and South Korea 12,000
tons. US corn export sales were 904,600 tons, low end for expectations. Canada, Mexico and Japan were largest buyers. Crop year corn sales are running 7 percent below last year’s pace. Sorghum sales of 323,100 tons were a marketing year high and included 195,000
tons to unknown and 124,000 tons for China.  Pork sales were 25,000 tons.  US all-wheat export sales were 399,100 tons. Within expectations. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims 13 Nov: 268K (est 260k; prev 267k; prevR 269k)

–
Continuing Jobless Claims 11 Nov: 2.080M (est 2.120M; prev 2.160M; prevR 2.209M)

US
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov: 39.0 (est 24.0; prev 23.8)

Canadian
International Securities Transactions (CAD) Sep: 20.02B (prev 26.30B)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is higher on strength in wheat. USDA corn export sales slowed from the previous week to 904,600 tons, low end of expectations. 

·        
China corn imports for the month of October were 480,000 tons, down 23 percent from the previous year. However, year to date corn imports are running at 26.2 million tons, up 263 percent from the same period year ago. 

·        
The weekly USDA Broiler Report showed broiler eggs set in the US up 7 percent and chicks placed up 4 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021, through November 13, 2021, for the United States were 8.34
billion. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·        
US weekly ethanol production increased 21,000 barrels per day to 1.060 million barrels and stocks unexpectedly fell 205,000 barrels to 20.081 million.   We think USDA is still low on their corn for ethanol usage by 50 million
bushels. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
South Korea’s NOFI was apparently back in again and bought 69,000 tons of optional origin corn at $315.99/ton c&f for arrival around Feb. 28, according to Reuters. This could be part of the import tender done earlier this week.
Reuters noted NOFI bought one cargo of corn on Tuesday ($318.90/arrival Feb 15) but another source mentioned two cargoes were completed on that day. 

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex is higher led by soybean oil. USDA reported soybean oil sales at a solid 67,500 tons, above expectations.  Meal and soybean sales were within expectations. 

·        
Argentina sold 34.1 million tons of 2020-21 soybeans through November 10, down from 35.1 million tons year ago. About 43.1 million tons of soybeans were produced last season, down from 49 million in 2019-20.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.1%, meal 0.8% higher, SBO up 0.8%, and palm up 1.2%.  Hog futures increased 0.2% in China.    

·        
Malaysia will keep their crude palm oil export tax unchanged at 8 percent for December.

·        
Malaysian February palm futures were up 99 ringgit to a 2-week high and cash was up $20.00/ton to $1,262.50/ton. 

·        
Malaysia

·        
Rotterdam meal values were 0.50-12.00 euros higher and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 8 points lower and meal $1.10 short ton lower. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.31/bu ($2.48 previous), compared to $2.66 at the end of last week and compares to $0.89 a year ago.  On a nearby contract rolling basis, last time crush reached $2.00 was July 2018. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

• Results
  awaited: South Korea is in for 115,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on November 17 for arrival in South Korea in 2023. 
  

·        
Turkey seeks 6,000 tons of sunflower oil on November 23 for December shipment. 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher with Chicago at a 9-year high. USDA all-wheat export sales of 399,100 tons were within expectations but above the previous week and little more than double year ago.  The Vancouver port is still cut
off with major railways.  It’s too early to tell if some wheat export business will shift to the US. 

·        
Matif Paris wheat was up 5 euros as of 7:30 am CT.  

·        
Matif wheat option volume was heavy yesterday at 16,343 lots.  

·        
Kazakhstan collected 16.4 million tons of grain this year, down from 20.1 million a year ago.

·        
Russia could collect 123 to 126 million tons of grain in 2022, according to the AgMin.  They pegged wheat in wide 75 to 84 million tons range.

·        
IKAR sees the Russian wheat crop for 2022 at 79 million tons and grain production at 125 million tons. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan bought 121,805 tons of food wheat this week. Original details as follows:

• Taiwan
  bought 48,000 tons US wheat for shipment in 2022 from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between Jan. 9 and Jan. 23.  It included 23,965 tons of U.S. dark northern spring wheat of 14.5% protein content bought at $423.37 a ton FOB, 17,225 tons of hard red winter
  wheat of 12.5% protein bought at $397.25 a ton FOB and 6,810 tons of soft white wheat of 11% protein bought at $420.72 a ton FOB.
  

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 24. 

·        
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on November 22. 

·        
Turkey seeks 320,000 tons of feed barley on November 23 for January shipment. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by February 24. 

·        
Turkey seeks 385,000 tons of wheat on November 25.

·        
Iraq seeks 500,000 tons of wheat starting in December for an unknown shipment period. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea bought an estimated 48,228 tons of rice from the US, Vietnam and Thailand for 2022 arrival. 

• 14,228
  tons of U.S.-origin medium grain brown rice bought at an estimated $1,277.82 a ton c&f for June arrival.
  
• 18,000
  tons of U.S.-origin medium milled rice was bought at an estimated $1,427 a ton c&f for March-July arrival.
• 15,000
  tons of broken rice from Vietnam was bought at $449 a ton c&f for June arrival.
  
• 1,000
  tons of long milled rice from Thailand was bought at an estimated $550 a ton c&f for January/February arrival.

 

USDA Export Sales

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period November 5-11, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Nigeria (84,200 MT, including 27,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (66,000 MT),
Japan (62,500 MT), the Philippines (61,500 MT), and Mexico (39,200 MT, including decreases of 5,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (45,600 MT).  Exports of 310,900 MT were up 15 percent from the previous week and 65 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Nigeria (130,500 MT), Venezuela (33,600 MT), Guatemala (31,900 MT), Japan (27,400 MT), and Mexico (22,300 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 904,600 MT for 2021/2022 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (230,000 MT), Mexico (210,400 MT, including decreases of 6,300 MT), Japan (201,600 MT, including
110,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,000 MT), Colombia (69,300 MT, including 50,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 103,000 MT), and Guatemala (47,200 MT, including 18,700 MT switched from Nicaragua, 13,500
MT switched from Costa Rica, 7,500 MT switched from Honduras, and decreases of 9,100 MT), were offset by reductions for Nicaragua (16,000 MT) and Costa Rica (12,600 MT).  Total net sales of 140,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for Mexico.  Exports of 1,167,700 MT–a
marketing-year high–were up 63 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (404,300 MT), Colombia (222,800 MT), Japan (154,200 MT), Canada (151,000 MT), and Guatemala (127,900 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 55,400 MT were reported for unknown destinations (50,000 MT) and Italy (5,400 MT).  The current outstanding balance of 498,700 MT is for unknown destinations (429,000 MT), Italy (60,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000
MT).

Barley: 
Total net sales reductions of 100 MT for 2021/2022 were for South Korea.  Exports of 200 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 59 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Taiwan.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 323,100 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year high–were up 24 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (195,000 MT), China (124,000 MT), and Mexico (4,100 MT). 
Exports of 2,600 MT were down 97 percent from the previous week and 92 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (2,200 MT) and Mexico (400 MT).

Rice:
 Net
sales of 102,100 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (34,700 MT), Honduras (20,800 MT), Haiti (16,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT),
Guatemala (12,200 MT), and Nicaragua (10,000 MT).  Exports of 88,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 78 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (35,900 MT), Honduras (30,600 MT), Haiti (15,100 MT),
Saudi Arabia (2,100 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).

Exports
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting:
For 2021/2022, net sales and exports totaling 500 MT of medium, short and other classes of rice were reported late for Japan.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 1,382,700 MT for 2021/2022 were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (727,500 MT, including 394,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,700 MT),
the Netherlands (133,000 MT, including 126,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (113,700 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (74,600 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and unknown destinations
(60,100 MT), were offset by reductions for Bangladesh (2,900 MT).  Total net sales reductions of 7,800 MT for 2022/2023 were for Cuba.  Exports of 2,344,200 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (1,657,200 MT), the Netherlands (133,000 MT), Mexico (123,200 MT), Thailand (76,000 MT), and Spain (71,700 MT).

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 11,300 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 11,300 MT, all Canada.

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
export of soybeans to China were adjusted down 70,000 MT for week ending November 4^th.  This shipment was reported in error. 

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 183,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (99,700 MT), Morocco (27,000 MT), Guatemala (18,600 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from
Costa Rica and decreases of 6,100 MT), Honduras (12,000 MT), and Canada (8,000 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (5,000 MT), Belgium (1,500 MT), and Colombia (500 MT).  Total net sales reductions
of 600 MT for 2022/2023 were for Japan.  Exports of 230,500 MT were up 39 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (109,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (28,600 MT), Guatemala
(27,800 MT), Canada (19,700 MT), and Mexico (16,900 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 67,500 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (22,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (19,500 MT), South Korea (12,000 MT), Mexico (6,900 MT),
and Guatemala (3,000 MT).  Exports of 1,800 MT were down 70 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Mexico (1,600 MT) and Canada (200 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 136,700 RB for 2021/2022 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Vietnam (40,400 RB, including 600 RB switched from Thailand, 200 RB switched from Japan, and 100
RB switched from China), Turkey (30,800 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from Vietnam), China (13,500 RB), Nicaragua (13,200 RB, including 8,800 RB switched from Vietnam), and Indonesia (6,500 RB).  Net sales of 7,200 RB for 2022/2023 were reported for Turkey
(4,400 RB) and Colombia (2,800 RB).  Exports of 77,900 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (30,200 RB), China (20,500 RB), Vietnam (6,500 RB), Pakistan (6,300
RB), and Thailand (2,100 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 20,600 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Peru (8,200 RB), India (8,100 RB), Turkey (1,300 RB), Germany (1,100
RB), and China (900 RB).  Exports of 6,500 RB were down 32 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to India (4,900 RB), Italy (1,100 RB), Taiwan (400 RB), and Thailand (100 RB)

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan. 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 100 RB is for Vietnam.

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 513,300 pieces for 2021 were down 20 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (314,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,800 pieces), South Korea (109,300 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), Mexico (31,100 whole cattle hides, including deceases of 1,000 pieces), Thailand (19,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 200 pieces), and Indonesia (11,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100
pieces), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (100 whole cattle hides).  Total net sales reductions of 400 kip skins were for Belgium.  Net sales of 44,900 pieces for 2022 were reported for China (32,100 whole cattle hides) and Indonesia (12,800 whole cattle
hides).  Exports of 399,000 pieces were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China (272,900 pieces), South Korea (46,600 pieces), Mexico (21,300 pieces), Thailand
(17,300 pieces), and Brazil (13,200 pieces).  In addition, exports of 8,000 kip skins were to Belgium.

Net
sales of 146,300 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (64,800 unsplit), Italy (20,100 unsplit, 11,700 grain splits, and decreases of 200 unsplit), Vietnam
(28,800 unsplit), Japan (16,000 grain splits), and Brazil (3,100 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (100 unsplit).  Net sales of 102,600 wet blues for 2022 were reported for Italy (86,000 unsplit), China (15,000 unsplit), and Vietnam (1,600 unsplit). 
In addition, total net sales reductions of 11,800 grain splits were reported for Italy.  Exports of 142,400 wet blues were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (46,200
unsplit), Italy (33,400 unsplit and 5,500 grain splits), Vietnam (34,900 unsplit), Thailand (12,300 unsplit), and Mexico (3,400 grain splits and 900 unsplit). 
Net
sales of 274,900 splits were reported for Vietnam (227,500 splits) and China (47,400 splits).  Total net sales of 421,200 splits for 2022 were for Vietnam.  Exports of 208,300 pounds were primarily to Vietnam (123,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 25,500 MT for 2021 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (13,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Taiwan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,200 MT,
including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Mexico (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT).  For 2022, net sales of 4,600 MT were primarily for South Korea (2,600
MT), Japan (1,300 MT), and China (400 MT).  
Exports of 18,200 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,400 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (3,200 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Taiwan
(1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net
sales of 25,000 MT for 2021 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (16,900 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,600
MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (900 MT).  Net sales of 5,100 MT for 2022 were primarily for South Korea
(4,200 MT) and Australia (800 MT).  Exports of 34,700 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (16,200 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), China (4,400 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT),
and Colombia (2,100 MT). 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  11/11/2021

FAX 202-690-3275

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	115.9	1,835.4	1,567.2	134.4	3,500.3	4,646.2	0.0	0.0
SRW	107.0	574.6	412.9	65.6	1,448.6	954.8	0.0	22.5
HRS	93.6	1,184.0	1,459.7	51.4	2,519.2	3,377.8	0.0	0.0
WHITE	82.6	771.5	2,031.5	59.4	1,709.9	2,256.2	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	52.4	201.9	0.0	96.5	341.9	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	399.1	4,417.8	5,673.0	310.9	9,274.5	11,576.8	0.0	22.5
BARLEY	-0.1	22.6	31.0	0.2	7.4	11.8	0.0	0.0
CORN	904.6	25,201.1	26,826.7	1,167.7	7,779.2	8,429.4	140.0	474.9
SORGHUM	323.1	3,249.6	2,995.9	2.6	352.0	940.9	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	1,382.7	18,048.9	28,940.9	2,344.2	16,557.2	22,221.7	-7.8	42.0
SOY MEAL	183.0	3,834.1	3,381.5	230.5	1,309.8	1,417.7	-0.6	36.2
SOY OIL	67.5	182.8	291.0	1.8	29.0	70.1	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	79.2	230.3	391.3	65.0	389.3	332.9	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	6.5	19.6	0.3	2.6	9.3	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	9.4	10.7	0.1	16.6	11.2	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	68.5	19.7	0.1	14.5	30.0	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	19.2	91.3	79.8	19.1	240.8	143.6	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	3.5	79.5	157.2	3.5	103.5	112.1	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	102.1	485.7	678.4	88.0	767.3	639.0	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	136.7	6,549.2	5,465.1	77.9	2,224.2	3,763.3	7.2	875.7
PIMA	20.6	226.2	250.5	6.5	100.3	201.7	0.0	1.8