PDF attached

 

Morning.

A
second Covid-19 vaccine is proving success and US equities are higher and WTI crude rallied more than $1.00.  Soybeans and corn are higher while wheat is lower.  Rain occurred over the weekend across Argentina and southern Brazil but much more rain is needed,
especially for Argentina.  The weather outlook calls for rain Friday into Monday for Argentina, but it won’t be well organized.  Southern Brazil will trend drier for the first half of the week.  China vegetable oil futures are higher while palm oil futures
traded slightly lower.  AmSpec reported a 12 percent decline in November 1-15 Malaysian palm oil exports.  US domestic soybean oil prices have appreciated a large amount over the past couple of months.  Last we heard Gulf soybean oil was 700 over, IL 100 over,
East 125 over and West 75 over.  Argentina was 650 over and Brazil 800 over.  China sold 860,535 tons of wheat out of auction, or 22 percent of what was offered.  Syria seeks 150,000 tons of wheat flour.  Saudi Arabia bought 730,000 tons of barley.  Turkey
is in for 50,000 tons of rice.  Bangladesh is in for rice.  China’s October pig herd expanded 26.9 percent from a year ago and sow herd was up 31.5 percent.  China claimed they found coronavirus on Brazilian beef packaging and Saudi Arabia shrimp packaging. 
CFTC
Commitment of Traders is delayed until after the close.  

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

SA Week 2 Accum Precipitation (mm) ForecastSA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Hurricane
    Iota was located 285 miles east southeast of Cabo Gracias A Dios located along the Nicaragua/Honduras Caribbean Sea border
    • The
      storm was moving west northwesterly at 9 mph while producing wind speeds of 90 mph near the storm center
    • Iota
      will reach Category Four hurricane intensity prior to landfall Monday night
      • Hurricane
        force wind was occurring out 25 miles from center of the storm today
    • The
      storm will move across northern Nicaragua and then crops into Honduras near the central common border region
      • Iota
        will be downgraded to tropical storm Tuesday and reach depression states Wednesday morning
    • Horrific
      damage is expected to accompany the storm into northeastern Nicaragua with lighter damage occurring in other northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras crop areas

      • Torrential
        rainfall of 8.00 to 15.00 inches and local totals of 20.00 to 30.00 inches will accompany the storm and a storm surge of 9-13 feet above normal tides is expected causing serious harm to coastal areas
    • Landfall
      is expected very near to the same region impacted by Hurricane Eta earlier this month
  • Typhoon
    Vamco moved inland north of Dong Hoi, Vietnam around 0600 GMT Sunday and the storm has since moved into central Laos
    • Vamco
      produced peak wind speeds of 80 mph
    • Rainfall
      reached over 5.00 inches at Hue and greater amounts were suspected northward up the coast of central Vietnam toward the Vinh area
    • Crop
      and structural damage was suspected once again
    • This
      was the last in a 6-week long series of tropical weather systems that have devastated many areas along the central Vietnam coast
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Alicia formed over open water in the south-central Indian Ocean during the weekend and was moving southeast over open water
    • The
      storm is expected to stay far to the east of Mauritius and La Reunion islands in the southeastern Indian Ocean
    • The
      storm poses no threat to land
  • Argentina
    received rain during the Friday through Sunday morning period
    . Coverage was close to 85%, but the greatest amounts of rain occurred in Cordoba, southeastern Santiago del Estero, northwestern Santa Fe and parts of western Chaco and eastern Formosa where
    1.00 to 2.00 inches resulted.
    • A
      few other locations in central Buenos Aires also reported 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain
    • Most
      other areas in Buenos Aires, central and southern Santa Fe, western Entre Rios, northeastern La Pampa and eastern Chaco received 0.05 to 0.88 inch of rain
    • Dry
      conditions occurred in northeastern Buenos Aires, eastern Entre Rios, western Buenos Aries and southeastern La Pampa
    • The
      rain in Argentina was all welcome, but Buenos Aires, southeastern Santiago del Estero, northwestern Santa Fe and central Chaco were the only areas receiving enough rain for a notably lift in soil moisture
      • Follow
        up rain will be extremely important
      • Far
        eastern Argentina failed to get enough rain to seriously change soil conditions which area mostly too dry
  • Argentina
    highest weekend temperatures were in the 90s to 105 degrees Fahrenheit  while in the upper 70s and 80s in the far south
  • Not
    much precipitation will fall in Argentina through Thursday, although a few periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected
  • Argentina
    rainfall Friday through Monday will be highly varied and not well organized
    • The
      precipitation will concentrate on the southwestern one-third to one half of the nation
      • Daily
        rainfall will vary from 0.05 to 0.60 inch with a few areas in La Pampa, southwestern Buenos Aires, San Luis and southern Cordoba getting more than 1.00 inch of rain over the period
    • Rain
      is expected Nov. 24-28 across much of Argentina with 0.50 to 1.50 inches resulting which may translate into further improved rainfall
      • Pure
        model data is greater than this, but World Weather, Inc. believes the rainfall is overdone in the model data
    • Argentina
      crops will respond favorably to the expected rain with improved soil moisture, late corn and sorghum planting conditions resulting
    • Follow
      up rain will be of critical importance if the improving trend is to be sustainable because deep soil moisture remains very low
  • Brazil
    rainfall during the weekend was most concentrated on the area from Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraguay and western Parana into Minas Gerais and Goias
    • Moisture
      totals varied greatly with several amounts of 0.75 to 1.69 inches; However, many areas received 0.20 to 0.88 inch which was not quite as beneficial as needed for a general soaking
    • Net
      drying occurred from Rio Grande do Sul to central Parana and central and southern Sao Paulo
    • Net
      drying also occurred in Mato Grosso , Bahia, northeastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo
    • High
      temperatures were in the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit in eastern Brazil while in the upper 80s and 90s elsewhere. An extreme high of 100 occurred in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul
  • Southern
    Brazil weather will trend drier after the first part of this week
    • Rainfall
      today and Monday will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with local totals over 1.00 inch; coverage will be 70% each day
    • Far
      southern Brazil will trend drier starting Tuesday and expand northward Wednesday through Saturday
      • Daily
        rainfall will vary greatly each day through the weekend with some moderate to heavy rain expected periodically to bolster soil moisture more notably
        • Areas
          from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais and Bahia will be wettest, although the greatest rain will be confined to a two- to three-day period followed by drier weather
      • Daily
        rain totals will vary from 0.65 to 1.50 inches and local totals over 2.50 inches
        • Mato
          Grosso to northeastern Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais will be wettest Wednesday and from Tocantins to Piaui and Bahia Friday and Saturday
          • Some
            areas in the northeast part of Brazil will receive multiple inches of rain (3.00 to 6.00 inches) by Sunday
  • Brazil
    will experience net drying Sunday through Nov. 24 with only a few showers and thunderstorms expected; resulting rainfall will not be enough to counter evaporation
    • Rain
      Nov. 25-28 may be greatest in Rio Grande do Sul and immediate neighboring areas, but confidence is low
    • Other
      areas in Brazil will experience isolated showers Nov. 25-30 with daily rainfall of 0.20 to 0.70 inch and local totals to 1.25 inches each day with coverage of 30-50% each day – confidence is low
  • Temperatures
    will be seasonable in both Brazil and Argentina during the next ten days
  • U.S.
    weekend precipitation was limited to the Midwest and Pacific Northwest
    • Rainfall
      in the Midwest varied from 1.00 to 2.00 inches from central and southeastern Missouri into west-central and southwestern Indiana while varying from 0.5 to 0.60 inch in many other areas north to Wisconsin and Michigan, including western Ohio
      • Some
        of the Midwest rain slipped southward into the northern Delta briefly with rainfall to 0.55 inch
    • Rain
      in the Pacific Northwest varied from 1.00 to 2.25 inches from west of the Cascades while amounts in the Yakima, Columbia and Snake River Basins varied from 0.12 to 0.65 inch with an extreme amount of 1.12 inches
      • Some
        of this rain slipped southward into northern California
    • Mostly
      dry weather occurred elsewhere with temperatures mild to cool in the north and interior west-central states and warm in the southern states
  • U.S.
    weather will be tranquil this week
    • Waves
      of rain and some wind will continue in the Pacific Northwest while most key crop areas are left dry
    • Weekend
      rain and some snow will evolve in the central Plains and western Corn Belt before moving east to the Delta, eastern Midwest and southeastern states early next week
      • Moisture
        totals will be light and beneficial for winter crops while only briefly limiting fieldwork
    • Hard
      red winter wheat areas will not get much moisture, but a few showers will be possible
      • Dryness
        will not be relieved in the west-central or southwestern Plains
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas advertised to get generalized rain and snow event early to mid-week next week, but the event is likely overdone in the west—central and southwestern Plains and a close watch on the event is warranted
  • Next
    week’s U.S. central Plains’ storm moves to the Midwest during mid- to late-week next week producing a second round of rain and a little snow (mostly northwest)
    • Showers
      and thunderstorms will also impact the Delta and southeastern states briefly during mid- to late-week next week
  • U.S.
    crop area temperatures will be near to above average during much of the next two weeks, although next week may trend cooler in parts of the western states
  • China
    weather was mostly dry Friday through Sunday  and temperatures were mild to warm
  • China
    will experience two waves of rain this week with sufficient moisture resulting to bolster topsoil moisture from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into the Northeast Provinces and southward to the Yangtze River Basin
    • Moisture
      totals will be greater than usual with 0.40 to 1.50 inches common and local totals of 1.50 to 3.00 inches and possibly more
      • The
        greatest rain will occur from northeastern Sichuan through Shandong and northern Jiangsu to Liaoning and southern Heilongjiang
    • Additional
      rain will fall in east-central China next week maintaining wetter than usual conditions in many wheat and rapeseed production areas
    • China’s
      moisture will notably more than usual and will ensure moisture abundance for all wheat and rapeseed production areas
      • Some
        recently planted crop areas may need drier weather to protect crops from damage
  • North
    Africa reported a few showers during the weekend, but the region needs greater rain to adequately support autumn planting and wheat and barley
    • The
      region was dry during the weekend
  • India
    rainfall was limited to the far south and extreme north during the weekend
  • Northern
    India rain today and Monday will be great for winter crop emergence and establishment
    • Drier
      weather that follows will be good for routine fieldwork
  • Southern
    India rainfall will be periodic over the next couple of weeks with rainfall greatest through mid-week this week and possibly again late next week
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall increased during the weekend benefiting many areas that were drier biased late last week
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will trend drier this week after Typhoon Vamco moved inland during the weekend
    • The
      drier weather will be very good for most of the region, especially Vietnam where excessive rains have occurred since Oct. 4
  • Philippines
    rainfall will also be lighter in the coming ten days than over the past few weeks
    • Excessive
      precipitation did occur in association with frequent storms that moved through the region during October and early November, but those have now ended
  • Australia
    precipitation will be erratic and light over the next ten days similar to that of the weekend resulting in favorable winter crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Rain
      is still needed in dryland summer crop areas of Queensland and parts of New South Wales to induce better crop development potentials
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias in the interior east
  • Portions
    of Russia’s Southern Region will receive snow and rain into Wednesday morning with moisture totals of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and snowfall of 5 to 10 inches and local totals over 12 inches

    • Stress
      to livestock and travel delays are expected, although the snow will melt relatively quickly
    • The
      moisture will improve soil conditions for better crop development in the spring of 2021
      • Much
        of the precipitation will fall a little too late this year to induce better establishment and crops will be left more vulnerable to winterkill this year because of poor establishment
  • Cool
    air will be present in the Russia New Lands and Kazakhstan early this week as a massive surface high pressure center evolves over the region.
    • Temperatures
      will fall into the positive and negative single digits Fahrenheit over many areas in Russia and in the positive single digits and teens northern Kazakhstan, but most of the coldest air will be east of key winter wheat production areas.
    • The
      coldest air will then settle into eastern Russia with some bitter cold reaching into northeastern China this weekend and next week
    • No
      crop damage is expected
  • Tropical
    Storm Theta dissipated as a tropical weather system late in the weekend
  • South
    Africa rainfall was limited during the weekend
    • Temperatures
      were seasonably warm
  • South
    Africa will experience some periodic shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days
    • Daily
      rainfall  is expected to be sporadic and light to locally moderate
    • All
      of the moisture will be welcome, but greater rain will still be needed especially in the far western summer crop areas and across parts of Limpopo
  • Europe
    weather remained unusually tranquil during the weekend because of a dominating high pressure ridge aloft, but changes are expected this week
    • Winter
      crops have established and some are trending dormant
    • Winter
      crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well
    • Some
      increasing precipitation is expected later this week and into the weekend in western and some central parts of the continent
  • Southeast
    Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again periodically over the next ten days
    • Dry
      weather would be best for a few weeks to finish up this year’s harvest
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +3.83 this morning; the index will rise for a while this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
    • Some
      rain will increase this week in the far southeast from remnants of Tropical Cyclone Iota
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into mid-month
    • Rain
      will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras Nicaragua and Panama
      • Hurricane
        Iota will be most responsible for the greatest rain and flooding in Honduras and northern Nicaragua

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week in Ethiopia while rain occurs frequently from Uganda and southwestern Kenya into Tanzania

    • Ethiopia
      will be wetter next week while showers and thunderstorms continue elsewhere

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be below average in most of the nation this week except along the immediate west coast where rainfall will be greater than usual

    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: Weather today is expected to maintain some concern over long term summer grain and oilseed production potentials for South America, despite the wetter outlook suggested in the GFS model runs recently for Argentina.
Southern Brazil is expecting less rainfall after early this week and Argentina will experience sporadic rainfall through the coming week with some increase in rainfall possible briefly next week.

           
U.S. late season harvest weather will be mostly good, but there will be some brief disruptions to fieldwork. Harvesting in India and China should be advancing normally and the planting of winter oilseeds in both countries has likely advanced well.

           
Australia canola harvest should continue to advance favorably and the establishment of winter rapeseed in Europe and Ukraine should be fair to good, although some areas are still struggling with poor establishment.

           
South Africa planting will advance favorably for a while. Most of Indonesia and Malaysia rainfall recently was good for improving soil moisture after short term drying last week.

           
Overall, weather today will provide a mixed influence on market mentality with ongoing bullishness underlying it all.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS:  U.S. winter crops are establishing well in the Midwest and in parts of the central Plains. Greater moisture is needed in a part of western Kansas, eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska. Some showers
would also benefit areas to the south. Recent rain in the Pacific Northwest and that which is forthcoming will also be good for improved winter crop emergence and establishment in unirrigated areas.

           
A snowstorm in a small part of Russia’s Southern region into Wednesday of this week will provide some needed moisture for improved crop establishment in the spring of 2021. Many other areas in the western CIS will also experience good early spring weather
conditions, but snow cover will be needed this winter to adequately protect crops from possible winterkill.

           
Rain in eastern China over the next ten days will ensure good winter grain establishment in all areas, especially dryland production areas in the north.

           
India’s small grains are establishing well and showers expected in the north today and Monday will help ensure that process continues.

           
Wheat conditions in Argentina may have improved during the weekend because of rain. Additional rain later this week and especially next week could bring on additional improvement, although there is some concern about the significance of this week’s moisture.

           
Brazil harvest conditions will be good in Rio Grande do Sul with rain limited to the first part of this week.

           
South Africa harvesting has been advancing well around recent precipitation.

           
North Africa needs more moisture to induce better planting and emergence conditions.

           
Europe and western CIS winter crops are mostly in favorable condition and winter dormancy has begun in some eastern areas.

           
Overall, weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias, but other factors will likely have greater impact on today’s trade.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR COTTON: Good harvest weather will continue in the southwestern U.S. Plains for a while. Improving weather will occur in the southeastern states after too much rain last week. The Delta rainfall expected over the next two weeks will be
infrequent and light enough to have a low impact. The far western U.S. will experience good harvest weather for a while.

           
India’s late season crops will get abundant rain in the far south this week. Harvesting and maturation elsewhere should advance favorably. China’s harvest should be mostly complete.

           
Australia still has need for rain in dryland areas of Queensland, although some rain recently has supported some planting. South Africa also needs more rain, but recent showers were welcome and beneficial in supporting some fieldwork.

           
Harvesting in Central Asia is moving along well with little weather related delay. The same is true for west-central Africa crops.

           
Overall, weather today will provide a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 16:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    winter wheat conditions; harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Monthly
    U.S. green coffee stockpiles data from the Green Coffee Association
  • France
    agriculture ministry releases grains output estimates
  • HOLIDAY:
    India

Tuesday,
Nov. 17:

  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 1
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly crops report
  • U.S.,
    Mexico Sweeteners Outlook USDA

Wednesday,
Nov. 18:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Online
    Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 1
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 2
  • USDA
    Total Milk Production

Thursday,
Nov. 19:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 2
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 3
  • Vietnam
    farm ministry’s conference on African swine fever, Ho Chi Minh City
  • BASF
    roundtable on sustainability in farming
  • USDA
    Red Meat Production

Friday,
Nov. 20:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 3
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Moderna
Covid-19 Vaccine Found 94.5% Effective In Analysis

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

Trade
News Service:

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Indian
    edible oil refiners are slowing imports of palm oil and favoring soybean oil imports on price discrepancies. 
  • Indonesia
    biofuel consumption may rise next year to 9.7 million kiloliters compared with 9.5 million kiloliters in 2020, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources showed.  Indonesia’s fuel demand is seen down 7 percent from a year ago.  The B40 target
    for 2021 is unlikely to happen. 
  • ITS:
    Malaysian November 1-15 palm exports were 653,541 tons, down 14 percent from month earlier. 
  • AmSpec:
    Malaysian November 1-15 palm exports were 673,991 tons, down 11.8 percent from month earlier. 
  • Malaysian
    palm futures are lower, off from an 8-year high.  Malaysian palm rose 6.3% last week, its fourth straight weekly gain.

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Results
    awaited: Syria seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on November 15. 
  • The
    USDA CCC seeks 14,720 tons of soybean oil for Peru on November 19 for Feb 1-10 shipment. 
  • The
    USDA seeks 180 tons of veg oil packaged in 4-liter cans on Nov 17 for use in the McGovern-Dole Food for Export program for shipment to Liberia. Shipment was scheduled for Dec 16-31 and Jan 1-15 (Jan 1-31 for plants at ports).

 

 

IL
Crude Soybean Oil

 

 

Wheat

  • Wheat
    was
    lower on slowing China wheat auction sales and lack of fresh news, but fresh global export development tender announcements may limit downside movement.  Don’t discount a two-sided trade. Black Sea wheat prices were up over the past week. 
  • CBOT
    Chicago wheat open interest was down 4,969 contracts on Friday.
  • China
    sold 860,535 tons of wheat out of auction, 21.6 percent of what was offered, at an average price of 2,336 yuan per ton, well down from 2.25 million tons sold on November 4. 
  • Russian
    12.5 percent protein Black Sea wheat prices according to IKAR were up $1 from the previous week to $254/ton. 
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukraine 12.5% Black Sea wheat rose $4-7/ton to $254-258/ton from previous week. 
  • The
    typhoon in the Philippines claimed 67 lives and the northern region saw its worst flooding in more than four decades. 
  • Kazakhstan
    exported 2.734 million tons of grains and flour in the first four months of the marketing season, 4.5% more than exports for the same period of the previous season. Wheat and wheat flour exports stood at 1.934 million tons and 0.7 million tons respectively. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 0.75 euro lower at 209.25 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • In an SBS import tender, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to
    be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 17 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on November 18 for LH Mar through FH May shipment. shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 26, valid until December 10, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.  This is the first import tender in three years. 

·        
Turkey seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 23 for Dec-early Jan shipment.

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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