PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Lower
trade all around on lack of bullish news.  EIA data will be released later today and USDA Export Sales on Friday.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Western
    and southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region will receive snow and rain late Sunday into Wednesday of next week
    • Moisture
      totals will vary from 0.20 to 0.70 inch with a few amounts over 1.00 inch and several inches of snow will fall near and immediately to the east of Ukraine
    • Crops
      will not respond well to the moisture, although some root and tiller development will improve as time moves along and the snow melts
      • There
        is no frost in the ground which should eventually allow the moisture into the soil
  • Tropical
    Storm Eta was located near Gainesville, Florida this morning was will race to the northeast passing through the Jacksonville area of Florida and then out to sea
    • The
      storm has already lost most of its convection and wind speeds are non-threatening
    • No
      crop damage has occurred or will occur
    • Wind
      speeds of 20 to 44 mph were noted overnight in association with the storm and rainfall ranged from 3.00 to more than 6.00 inches in west-central parts of the Florida Peninsula
  • Heavy
    rain also fell in parts of Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday and early today with 2.00 to 4.00 inches and local totals over 6.00 inches noted
    • Some
      local flooding may have resulted and more of that will occur today as additional heavy rainfall evolves
      • Another
        1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain is possible today
  • Tropical
    Storm Theta remains a minimal threat to land in the eastern Atlantic Ocean
    • The
      storm center was 740 miles southwest of the Azores
    • The
      system will lose tropical characteristics and merge with a mid-latitude frontal system late in the weekend and more likely early next week
      • Moisture
        from the system will enhance rain in the United Kingdom next week
  • Tropical
    disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will become a tropical depression in the next day or two
    • The
      system has potential to become Tropical Storm Iota during the weekend and will move toward Nicaragua and Honduras with landfall possible early next week
  • Brazil
    rainfall Wednesday scattered from southern Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias through central and southern Minas Gerais and northeastern Sao Paulo with rainfall of 0.05 to 0.75 inch common and local totals to 1.00 to 2.40 inches
    • The
      rain was welcome and beneficial, but net drying occurred in many areas to the south and northeast
  • Most
    of Brazil excepting the far northeast and extreme south will get rain at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks
    • The
      precipitation will be greatest from Mato Grosso through Goias to Minas Gerais through early next week and most erratic and light from Rio Grande do Sul to southern Paraguay and southwestern Parana
    • The
      south half of Brazil will be dry late next week through the following weekend making this coming week’s rainfall very important
  • Argentina
    rainfall Wednesday was minimal with showers occurring in the far south and extreme north
    • High
      temperatures were in the 70s and 80s south and the 80s and lower 90s north suggesting an acceleration in net drying is under way raising crop stress and bringing more worry over future crop development
  • Portions
    of western and northern Argentina will get rain over the coming ten days while central and eastern Argentina remains dry or mostly dry
    • Crop
      stress will continue to rise and worry over crop emergence and establishment will continue rising from Santa Fe into Entre Rios, Corrientes and parts of northeastern Buenos Aires
  • South
    Africa rainfall will continue concentrated on central and southeastern crop areas over the next several days maintaining a very good outlook for summer coarse grain, oilseed and cotton planting and establishment
    • Greater
      rain may be needed in western summer crop areas soon and possibly in Limpopo as well
    • Winter
      wheat, barley and canola maturation and harvesting are advancing around the periodic rainfall
  • India
    rainfall will continue most significant in the south and periodically in the far eastern states during the next ten days
    • Late
      season summer crop development, maturation and harvesting will advance around the precipitation
    • Winter
      crop planting will also continue to advance most significantly in the central and northern parts of the nation where winter crop establishment has been good thus far
  • Eastern
    China weather is expected to remain mostly very good for the next two weeks
    • Net
      drying through the weekend will promote summer crop harvesting and late season wheat and rapeseed planting
    • Rain
      expected next week from east-central China into the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin will be extremely well timed for winter crop establishment
  • Australia
    precipitation over the next ten days will be erratic and mostly too light to have a big impact on agriculture
    • Dry
      conditions will be perfect maturing winter crops and supporting their harvest
    • Dry
      conditions will also support additional summer crop planting
    • Rain
      is needed for dryland summer crops and not much is expected for a while
  • Most
    of western and northern Russia, western Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States will have had a favorable winter crop establishment season this year and production potentials are good for the spring
  • Europe
    weather remains unusually tranquil because of a dominating high pressure ridge aloft that is keeping precipitation limited to northwestern parts of the continent
    • Winter
      crops have established and some are trending dormancy
    • Winter
      crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well
    • Some
      increasing precipitation is expected late next week and into the following weekend in western and some central parts of the continent
  • North
    Africa is seeking greater rainfall to support the best possible wheat and barley planting this year
    • Some
      planting is under way with late November and December most important for planting and establishment
    • Rain
      fell Wednesday in northeastern Algeria with amounts of 0.30 to 0.90 inch and local totals to 1.57 inches; dry conditions occurred elsewhere
  • U.S.
    Midwest crop weather will be mixed for a while
    • No
      major storm systems are expected through the weekend
    • Rain
      is expected this weekend into Monday with moisture totals of 0.20 to 0.80 inch in the lower and eastern Midwest and across a part of the Great Lakes region
    • Additional
      rain and snow will occur Nov. 21-23
    • Each
      of these disturbances will bring some delay to late season fieldwork, but the moisture will maintain a good outlook for winter crops
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will need more moisture especially in the west to ensure the best emergence and establishment
    • A
      weak weather disturbance will produce rain from the southeastern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Kansas briefly Friday night into Saturday; otherwise, there is not much precipitation expected for a while
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains have snow on the ground in Most of Montana, far western and extreme northern North Dakota and from southeastern South Dakota into a part of west-central Minnesota
    • Precipitation
      is expected to be infrequent and light over the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Delta weather will be good for fieldwork of all kinds during the next ten days
    • Saturday
      is the only day expecting rain and amounts will be light
  • U.S.
    Southeastern States will experience additional moderate to heavy rain today, but mostly in Virginia and the eastern Carolinas
    • Drier
      weather is expected thereafter and that will translate into better crop and field conditions for late season harvesting and winter crop establishment
  • Waves
    of precipitation are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin  during the next ten days with some rain in central and northern California as well
    • The
      moisture will be welcome and should improve soil moisture for better winter crop establishment
    • Mountain
      snowpack should increase for better runoff in the spring
    • Some
      disruption to port activity is possible periodically in the Puget Sound
  • Southeast
    Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again Sunday into Monday; dry weather will occur most other days
    • The
      environment will be good for harvesting
  • Typhoon
    Vamco was located 520 miles east of Da Nang today moving west westerly and will  move across the South China Sea today and Friday
    • Landfall
      is expected in central Vietnam during the late weekend as a tropical storm
    • Rainfall
      of 4.00 to 10.00 inches will result from Da Nang northward to Vinh, Vietnam
      • Damage
        to crops and property is expected  in both countries, although it may not be extensive
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +2.01 this morning; the index will rise later this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into mid-month
    • Rain
      will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras Nicaragua and Panama
      • A
        new tropical cyclone will be responsible for heavy rain and flooding in Honduras and northern Nicaragua early next week

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week in Ethiopia while rain occurs frequently from Uganda and southwestern Kenya into Tanzania

    • Ethiopia
      will be wetter next week while showers and thunderstorms continue elsewhere

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be below average in North Island and near to above average in South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 12:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam
    customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in October
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • EARNINGS:
    BayWa, Marfrig

Friday,
Nov. 13:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
    • NOTE:
      CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 16, due to U.S. federal holiday
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices

Saturday,
Nov. 14:

  • China
    Animal Agriculture Association summit on hog recovery, ASF vaccine progress

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
CPI (M/M) Oct 0.0% (est 0.1%; prev 0.2%)

-US
CPI (Y/Y) Oct 1.2% (est 1.3%; prev 1.4%)

-US
Core CPI (M/M) Oct 0.0% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)

-US
Core CPI (Y/Y) Oct 1.6% (est 1.8%; prev 1.7%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Nov 7 709K (est 731K; prevR 757K; prev 751K)

-US
Continuing Claims Oct 31 6.786 Mln (est 6.825 Mln; prevR 7.222 Mln; prev 7.285 Mln)

US
Real Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Oct 3.2% (prevR 3.2%; prev 3.3%)

-US
Real Average Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Oct 4.4% (prevR 4.4%; prev 4.1%)

 

 

Corn.

  • Corn
    is lower on lack of fresh news. 
  • EIA
    data will be out later today proving some price direction.  Note ethanol production is running well below a year ago. 
  • Today
    is day 5 of the GS roll, last day.  Traders should shift their focus on the March position.  Spreads are expected to remain active with pressure on December as the US may increase corn exports after the end of the year. 
  • WTI
    was up $0.13 and USD 14 points lower at the time this was written. 
  • The
    USDA Broiler report will be out after the close.

·        
A Bloomberg survey calls for weekly ethanol production to be up to 975 thousand barrels from 961 thousand from the previous week, and stocks to end up at 20.114 million barrels, up from 19.675 million. 

·        
Germany’s 2020 corn was projected to increase about 10% on the year to 4.03 million tons – Germany’s association of farm cooperatives.  This has not slowed EU’s appetite for feedgrains demand.

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Malaysian
    palm futures are traded at an 8-year high. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

 

Wheat

  • Wheat
    is
    lower on lack of fresh news but a pickup in global export development tender announcements may mitigate losses. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 0.75 euro lower at 210.50 euros. 
  • The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated wheat production at 16.7 million tons versus 17.0 million previously.  USDA is at 18 million tons. 
  • Russia’s AgMin made an official statement on export quotas to be set from 15 Feb until June 30 for the volume of 15 million tons of all grains (mostly
    wheat).  That’s 45 days later than what we expected.  Some believe about 39 million tons of wheat exports will be completed by the end of the season.  Russian wheat exports are expected to be front loaded this season (Starting July) since Australia’s crop
    will end up cheaper on the back end. We also understand Australia’s wheat crop is larger than most predictions out there. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) announced seeks 720,000 tons of feed barley on Friday for arrival during January – February 2021.
  • Pakistan seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 18.
  • Japan is in for 102,011 tons of food wheat. 
  • In an SBS import tender, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in
    Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Results awaited: Syria seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 17 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on November 18 for LH Mar through FH May shipment. shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation.  

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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