PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

 

Another
session of higher prices on follow through bullish momentum from the USDA report, dry weather for Argentina and parts of Brazil, and higher outside markets.  Soybeans are at a 4-year high and corn at a 15-month high.  Energy prices are higher this morning
and the USD was up 38 points.  Palm futures were up 90 points to 3346, an eight-year high and cash increased $27.50/ton to $845.  China was up 1.1-1.6% in the soybean complex and cash crush improved 13 cents to 86 cents from Tuesday.  China bought a cargo
of Brazilian soybeans for August shipment.  Funds were big buyers in corn and soybeans yesterday and we will see if that momentum continues through day 4 and 5 of the GS roll.  An Argentina crushing plant had an accidental explosion yesterday in Saforcada
and operations were grounded yesterday for an investigation.  Rising corn prices pressured feeder cattle on Tuesday.  Louis-Dreyfus agreed to sell a 45% indirect stake in Louis Dreyfus Co. to Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ.   A Bloomberg survey calls
for weekly ethanol production to be up to 975 thousand barrels from 961 thousand from the previous week, and stocks to end up at 20.114 million barrels, up from 19.675 million. 

 

Eta
reached hurricane intensity 130 miles west southwest of Fort Myers, Florida.  The 7-day forecast turned more favorable for Southern Brazil, but Argentina is expected to see ongoing net drying through the end of the month.  Thunderstorms and heavy rain seen
over some parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Java on Wednesday. 

 

Turkey
started getting offers for 550,000 tons of wheat.  Japan is in for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley.  Japan is also in for 102,011 tons of food wheat.  Saudi Arabia will start allowing private importers to source barley.  Algeria is in
for wheat on Thursday. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 11:

  • EARNINGS:
    JBS, Barry Callebaut
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Veterans Day, federal govt closed, CME trading unaffected), France, Canada

Thursday,
Nov. 12:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam
    customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in October
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • EARNINGS:
    BayWa, Marfrig

Friday,
Nov. 13:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
    • NOTE:
      CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 16, due to U.S. federal holiday
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices

Saturday,
Nov. 14:

  • China
    Animal Agriculture Association summit on hog recovery, ASF vaccine progress

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

OPEC
Sees 2020 World Oil Demand Falling By 9.75Mln BPD (prev 9.47Mln BPD Drop)

 

Corn.

·        
Louis-Dreyfus agreed to sell a 45% indirect stake in Louis Dreyfus Co. to Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ.  

·        
A Bloomberg survey calls for weekly ethanol production to be up to 975 thousand barrels from 961 thousand from the previous week, and stocks to end up at 20.114 million barrels, up from 19.675 million. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Eta
    reached hurricane intensity 130 miles west southwest of Fort Myers, Florida.  The 7-day forecast turned more favorable for Southern Brazil, but Argentina is expected to see ongoing net drying through the end of the month.  Thunderstorms and heavy rain seen
    over some parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Java on Wednesday. 
  • Brail
    soybean basis is starting to collapse with the rise in CBOT futures.  The real is weak and producers are not selling.  We are hearing consumer bids are lower on basis. 

  • An
    Argentina crushing plant had an accidental explosion yesterday in Saforcada and operations were grounded yesterday for an investigation. 
  • Argentina’s
    grain receivers union (Urgara) mentioned labor talks are not progressing well.  This is bullish for soybeans and soybean meal. 
  • Yesterday
    funds bought an estimated net 33,000 soybean contracts. 
  • CBOT
    soybean open interest was up 14,357 contracts on Tuesday. 
  • We
    heard China bought at least one cargo of soybeans from Brazil for August 2021 shipment. 

  • Malaysian
    palm futures are traded at an 8-year high. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Wheat

  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 0.50 euro higher at 212.50 euros. 

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    is in for 102,011 tons of food wheat. 
  • In
    an SBS import tender, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Algeria
    seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on November 12 for December and/or January shipment. 
  • Results
    awaited: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) seeks up to 60,000 tons of milling wheat, 30,000 tons of soyoil and 30,000 tons of sunflower oil, on Tuesday, Nov. 10, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.
  • Results
    awaited: Syria seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 17 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on November 18 for LH Mar through FH May shipment. shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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