PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 150,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Mixed
trade today with soybeans and meal lower and soybean oil mixed.  Corn is lower (fund position was larger than expected as of last Tuesday) and wheat mixed.  Look for positioning ahead of the USDA report due out Tuesday.  Today is the second day of the Goldman
Roll.  We see no major issues with weather for NA and SA but keep an eye on eastern Australia as they received more rain over the weekend. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • A
    blizzard will evolve in the upper Midwest Wednesday into Friday of this week
    • The
      storm will produce 3 to 6 inches of snow and locally more in northern Minnesota, northeastern North Dakota and southern Manitoba, Canada as well as neighboring areas of western Ontario and northwestern Wisconsin
    • Snowfall
      of a trace to 3 inches will occur in the remainder of North Dakota, southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota as well as the remainder of Wisconsin
    • Strong
      wind speeds of 25-35 mph and gusts to 45 will be possible during the height of the storm’s intensity late Wednesday night and Thursday
  • Rain
    from the same blizzard noted above will move from west to east across the Midwest Wednesday into Friday causing a brief disruption to farming activity
    • U.S.
      Midwest farming weather today and Tuesday will remain very good as it will be in the Delta and southeastern states
  • A
    follow up storm in the far northern U.S. Plains and northern Midwest this weekend will produce additional snow and rain, but the lower Midwest will not be impacted by much moisture
  • A
    couple of other U.S. storm systems are expected next week to bring additional bouts of light precipitation and maintaining a slower harvest pace for some areas
  • No
    significant precipitation is expected in western U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas southward into West Texas during the next ten days
    • Rain
      is expected in some eastern wheat areas Wednesday of this week and possibly again in the second half of next week
    • Moisture
      shortages in wheat areas from Colorado to the Texas Panhandle will maintain concern over unirrigated winter crop conditions
    • West
      Texas harvest weather should be mostly good over the next week to ten days
  • Less
    frequent and less significant precipitation will occur in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and northern California after this workweek with next week expected to be drier biased for a while
  • U.S.
    weekend rainfall was minimal in key grain, oilseed and cotton production areas
    • The
      only exception was in Florida, southeastern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas where significant rain fell
      • Rainfall
        reached 6.28 inches at Daytona Beach, Florida with many other areas from central through northeastern Florida to southeastern Georgia reported 2.00 to more than 4.00 inches
    • A
      notable warming trend occurred in the central United States
      • Highest
        temperatures occurred in the northern Plains Saturday with readings in the 60s and 70s and Sunday was warmest in the central and southwestern Plains where highs were in the 80s
        • Liberal,
          Kansas, Guymon, Oklahoma and both Pampa and Perryton, Texas reached 88 Fahrenheit during the middle of Sunday afternoon
      • Relative
        humidity in the central and southwestern Plains Sunday afternoon was varying from 8-25% suggesting strong evaporation for the region
    • Rain
      also fell along the coast of Washington and Oregon and into the Cascade Mountains where moisture totals of 0.57 to 1.35 inches resulted
      • Some
        lighter rain fell in the northern Rocky Mountains as well
  • Limited
    precipitation is still expected in the northwestern U.S. Plains and central parts of Canada’s Prairies through the next ten days, but these areas will eventually have some potential for rain and snow as La Nina becomes more significant
    • The
      precipitation potentials should begin to improve late this month and especially in December and January
  • U.S.
    temperatures this week will be near to above normal with the warmest bias expected in the northeastern and southwestern parts of nation
    • Temperatures
      next week will average near normal except in the Great Basin, southwestern states and central and southern Rocky Mountain region where readings will be above normal
  • The
    U.S. bottom line will be good for late season farming activity early this week and then there will be some disruption to fieldwork a little later this week and into next week. None of the delays are expected to become a serious threat to late season fieldwork.
    Planting wheat and its establishment would improve with a longer period of dry and warm weather, but the situation is not critical at this point in time.  Cotton harvest progress in West Texas will advance well, but progress in the Delta and southeastern states
    may be briefly disrupted from time to time without seriously deteriorating the remaining crop conditions
  • Southern
    Brazil will receive limited amounts of rain over the coming week leading to net drying in many areas from Sao Paulo into southern Mato Grosso do Sul and in Rio Grande do Sul as well as parts of southern Paraguay
    • Some
      showers and thunderstorms will occur from Parana into southern Mato Grosso do Sul and southeastern Paraguay, but resulting rainfall may not be enough to counter evaporation
      • Sufficient
        rainfall may occur to support crops, but the need for greater rain will be steadily rising as time moves along
  • Rio
    Grande do Sul, Brazil will be driest with little to no rain until late Sunday and Monday of next week when 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain will occur with some locally greater amounts
    • Confidence
      in this rain event and another that occurs in far southern Brazil late next week is low and future model runs will be closely monitored
  • Center
    west through center South Brazil and in a few northeastern areas will be frequently and abundantly wet during the next ten days to two weeks
    • Rainfall
      may be heavy at times from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais, Tocantins and a part of southwestern Bahia
      • Rainfall
        will vary from 3.00 to more than 7.00 inches during the next ten days in these areas
      • Most
        of the precipitation will be spread out over multiple days limiting the occurrence of serious flooding, but some excessive moisture and minor flooding should be anticipated
    • Most
      of Bahia, Piaui and Maranhao and Pernambuco will see 1.00 to 3.00 inches with local totals over 4.00 inches
  • Brazil
    temperatures will be near to below average in this first week of the outlook and slightly warmer next week
  • Argentina
    temperatures will be near normal this week and next week
  • Brazil
    rainfall Friday through Sunday was greatest from Mato Grosso through Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul to portions of Minas Gerais with amounts of 0.20 to 0.88 inch occurring most often with local amounts of 1.00 to 2.25 inches
    • Showers
      elsewhere were sporadic and light with less than 0.30 inch of moisture in Parana
      • Sao
        Paulo was left mostly dry along with southern Minas Gerais and most of Rio Grande do Sul
    • Temperatures
      were seasonably warm with highs in the lower to middle 90s except near the coast and in the far south where 80s and a few upper 70s were noted
  • Argentina
    weekend rainfall was limited resulting in net drying for many areas
    • The
      exception was in a few Santa Fe, western Entre Rios and Formosa locations where more than 0.50 inch of rain resulted.
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable
  • The
    bottom line for Brazil and Argentina during the next two weeks remains mostly favorable for summer crop development and field progress. Some areas in center west and northern parts of center south Brazil will be a little too wet at times while periods of drying
    in southern Brazil, Uruguay, southern Paraguay and parts of extreme eastern Argentina will be closely monitored, but for now many of these areas get at least a little timely rainfall to stave off a more significant bout of dryness.  Watch future forecast model
    runs for signs of turning drier in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Paraguay and southern Brazil, but for now crop conditions will stay favorable.
  • Australia
    rainfall during the weekend was scattered in many crop areas, but the precipitation was greatest in the Great Dividing range outside of winter crop areas
    • This
      protected wheat, barley and canola quality and maintained a nearly ideal outlook for production
  • Australia
    weather is expected to be more active this week with rain falling more frequently, but it is still questionable over whether it will be wet enough to harm the quality of winter crops
    • Drier
      weather is expected for a while this weekend into the middle part of next week before rain resumes again after that
    • Drier
      weather will be needed to improve crop maturation and harvest conditions for wheat, barley and canola
    • The
      rain in Queensland and some areas in New South Wales will be ideal for the advancement of summer crop planting, emergence and development especially in unirrigated areas
    • Livestock
      conditions will be improving as well due to better grazing conditions resulting as soil moisture gets better and grass development accelerates
  • Western
    parts of Russia received rain and some snow during the weekend
    • Moisture
      totals varied from 0.05 to 0.70 inch with a few amounts over 1.00 inch
      • Most
        of this stayed out of the lower half of the Volga Bain and Ukraine where dry conditions prevailed
    • Highest
      temperatures were in the 40s and lower 50s Fahrenheit with lows in the 30s and 40s
    • Colder
      air was noted east of the New Lands, but there are few to no winter crops produced in that region.
  • Precipitation
    in Russia and Ukraine will be restricted for ten days from central Ukraine into the Volga Basin north of Russia’s Southern Region and southeast of Russia’s Central Region
    • Moisture
      will occur in all other areas and in sufficient amounts to bolster soil moisture for use in the spring
    • Some
      significant snow will fall this week across northern Russia which should expand snow cover that has been mostly confined to areas east of the Ural Mountains recently
  • Winter
    crops in Russia and Ukraine are adequately established even though there is need for more moisture in Ukraine and the middle and lower Volga Basin. As long as snow cover is present during extreme weather during the winter crops in these areas should perform
    well in the spring as long as soil moisture has improved by that time.
  • China
    began to experience the season’s first significant snow event of the season during the weekend and it will continue into Tuesday in the northeast
    • Beijing
      reported its first snow 23 days earlier than usual and temperatures early this week were expected to be the coldest in ten years
    • Much
      more snow will fall, although areas from Liaoning to central Heilongjiang will be most impacted with another 4 to 12 inches of accumulation expected.
      • Travel
        delays have already occurred and many businesses and schools will be close into Tuesday
    • Bitter
      cold temperatures will follow the snow event
    • Concern
      over livestock in the region remains, although Inner Mongolia missed the greatest snow and concern over livestock losses had been greatest for that region
    • Snow
      will linger in northeastern China through mid-week this week
  • China
    will see net drying during the middle to latter part of this week with some light snow returning to northeastern China this weekend
    • Unusually
      cold temperatures early this week will give way to more seasonable conditions this weekend into next week
    • Freezes
      will occur southward to the northern Yangtze River Valley Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Most
    of China’s adverse weather will be confined to the northeast provinces early this week. Late season fieldwork will be on hold with some unharvested crops to be buried in snow. Livestock stress will be reduced over time.  Dry or mostly dry conditions in the
    Yellow and Yangtze River Basins will be very good for late season summer crop harvesting and the planting of rapeseed and a few other late season crops.
  • A
    weak tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea this week will drift west southwesterly over open water and not have much impact on crops this week
  • Another
    tropical cyclone will evolve in the southern Bay of Bengal today and move northwest while intensifying
    • Landfall
      is possible in southern Andhra Pradesh near the Tamil Nadu border Thursday
    • Heavy
      rain and flooding are expected in northeastern Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh and southeastern Karnataka during the middle to latter part of this week
      • Some
        damage to rice, cotton and a few oilseed crops might result from this event.
      • A
        few areas of flooding will also occur in sugarcane areas, but damage to that crop because of wind and flooding should be low
  • South
    Africa rainfall was scattered in eastern parts of the nation during the weekend, but much of it was not enough to counter evaporation or seriously change crop or field conditions
  • Greater
    rain is needed in South Africa to improve summer crop planting, emergence and establishment conditions
    • Western
      rainfall in the nation should be minimal for summer crops leaving a strong need for significant moisture over the next two weeks
    • Eastern
      crop areas will see periodic rainfall and all of it will be welcome, but larger volumes of rain may still be needed
    • Good
      harvest weather continues in winter crop areas
  • Europe
    weather will be favorable for fieldwork of all kinds this week, although it will have to advance around brief bouts of light rainfall
    • Italy
      and the Adriatic Sea region will see frequent bouts of rain this week with some of the moisture eventually pushing deeper into the Balkan Countries
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia weather will be wet biased over the next two weeks with frequent rain expected over saturated or nearly saturated soil causing some flooding
  • Coastal
    areas of Central Vietnam will likely trend wetter than usual this week resulting in some flooding from Da Nang southward to
    • Rain
      totals in the coming week may range from 5.00 to 15.00 inches resulting in some flooding, but mostly along the coast
    • Some
      of the heavy rain may eventually push into the Central Highlands of Vietnam, but confidence is low
  • Philippines
    weather will remain favorably mixed with rain and sunshine through the next two weeks
  • Central
    parts of Algeria’s coastal region received heavy rainfall during the weekend with amounts pushing up to 5.00 inches through dawn Sunday
    • Much
      lighter rain fell in other areas in northern Algeria while Tunisia and Morocco were left mostly dry
  • Additional
    rain will fall along the central Algeria coast periodically this week with another 1.00 to 4.00 inches
    • Some
      additional flooding is possible, but enough of a break from the weekend heavy rain before the next wave of heavy rain arrives to help reduce the severity of new flooding
    • Tunisia
      will also receive some light rainfall
    • Southwestern
      Morocco remains in a multi-year drought with little rain of significance expected over the next couple of weeks
  • West-central
    Africa will experience a good mix of weather during the next ten days to two weeks
    • Less
      frequent rain in cotton areas will translate into better crop maturation conditions
    • Coffee,
      cocoa, sugarcane and rice will also benefit from less frequent and less significant rainfall, although completely dry weather is not likely for a while
  • East-central
    Africa weather will be favorably mixed for a while supporting coffee, rice, cocoa and a host of tropical crops
  • Mexico’s
    weather will drier biased for the next ten days except along the lower east coast where periodic rainfall is expected
  • Central
    America rainfall will be erratic over the next two weeks with the greatest rain expected in Costa Rica and Panama
  • West-central
    and southwestern Colombia, Ecuador and northern Peru agricultural areas will be closely monitored over the next few weeks as the potential for flooding increases.
    • Coffee,
      sugarcane, corn and a host of other crops may eventually impacted by too much rain in Colombia
      • Harvest
        delays have already occurred and there is more coming
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop harvesting will advance normally as dry and warm conditions prevail
    • Much
      of these crops are already harvested
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillational Index was +6.80 and it was expected to drift higher over the coming week
  • New
    Zealand rainfall is expected to be near to above average except along the lower east coast of South Island where precipitation may be a little lighter than usual
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable.
  • A
    mid-latitude low pressure center off the lower east U.S. coast today has some potential to acquire subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves east northeasterly
    • The
      storm will impact Bermuda Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some heavy rainfall
    • The
      system will move away from North America

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 8:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    cotton condition; corn, soy and cotton harvesting; winter wheat planting, 4pm
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Nov. 9:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • China
    farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • France
    agriculture ministry crop production estimates
  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am

Wednesday,
Nov. 10:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Vietnam’s
    customs department publishes October commodity trade data
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board’s data on October output, exports and stockpiles, 12:30pm Kuala Lumpur
  • Malaysia’s
    Nov. 1-10 palm oil export numbers by cargo surveyors
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly grains report

Thursday,
Nov. 11:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans (tentative)
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices
  • HOLIDAY:
    France

Friday,
Nov. 12:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Big
miss on corn longs last week as OI increased a large amount on fund buying.  We are concerned on bullish optimism as soybean prices failed to follow suite (as of last Tuesday) against the appreciation in grains and caution longs as we head into a period of
favorable US harvest weather and good progress of SA plantings. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are lower from good US harvesting weather and lack of bullish news.  The funds position in corn as of last Tuesday was more long than expected. 

·        
We look for harvest progress to be up 12 points last week to 86 percent after dry weather occurred across the heart of the Midwest.   

·        
Second day for the Goldman roll for December contacts.

·        
Look for positioning ahead of the USDA report due out Tuesday.

·        
Export developments are quiet.

·        
Bird flu continues to spread across Europe.  Poland reported an outbreak of H5N1.  Last week France raised their alert status on bird flu. 

 

Export
developments.

  • USDA:
    Private exporters reported sales of 150,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans
and
meal are lower from positioning and a lower USD.  Soybean was mixed in part to a mixed trade in overseas values (China vegetable oils were sharply lower).  China soybean imports of 5.11 MMT during October were lowest since March 2020. 

·        
We see no major issues with weather for NA and SA but keep an eye on eastern Australia as they received more rain over the weekend. 

·        
Brazil is 67 percent complete on soybean plantings as of Thursday according to AgRural, above 56 percent year earlier. 

·        
China futures decreased 1.4 for soybeans, fell 0.5% for meal and were down 3.5% for soybean oil.

·        
Malaysia

·        
Rotterdam meal values were unchanged to 6 euros lower and vegetable oils unchanged to 5 euros higher. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil about 50 points higher and meal $1.00 short ton higher. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.52/bu, compared to $2.30 at the end of last week and compares to $0.85 a year ago.

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is mixed.  The USD is lower, and some traders are positioning ahead of the USDA report.   The CFTC report did show longs holding a good position for the KC and MN markets. 

·        
Paris December wheat was down .3.00 euros by around 7:45 am CT at 284.75/ton.

·        
Ukraine’s AgMin showed the winter wheat planting area down 8.5% at 6.09 million hectares, down from 6.11 million in 2020-21, and well below the 6.66 million projected before sowings started. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on Nov. 10 for shipment combinations of March 1-15, March 16-31, April 1-15 and April 16-30. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Suite 1450

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.