PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Quiet
day.  China bought soybeans from the US and SK bought soybean oil as announced under the USDA 24-hour system.  Corn was sold to unknown.  Traders are focused on SA dry weather, US oilseed and grain demand, USDA’s surprise change in China’s corn import outlook,
and the USDA report due out next week that may show a reduction in US corn and soybean yields. 

 

USDA
will release its annual baseline S&D’s Friday at 2 p.m. CST

https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2020/10/26/usda-announces-early-release-select-commodity-tables-usdas

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

TOPICS
TO THINK ABOUT DURING WEEKEND

  • Tropical
    Depression Eta will become a tropical storm later today and intensify as it moves to Cuba this weekend
    • The
      storm will move across Cuba Sunday morning with rain and wind from the storm impacting the region from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning
      • Damage
        to citrus, sugarcane and unharvested rice is possible
      • Flooding
        should be expected
    • The
      storm center will move extremely close to the south tip of Florida and will likely pass over the Florida Keys Sunday night into Monday
      • Heavy
        rain will impact southern Florida with some windy conditions as well
        • Damage
          to southern citrus and sugarcane is not expected to be significant, but a little fruit droppage is possible in southwestern citrus areas depending on how close the storm center is to land
      • Citrus
        in the remainder of Florida’s peninsula could be impacted by the storm if it takes a more northerly track than expected
    • By
      mid-week next week the storm will be west of Tampa Florida
    • There
      is potential for the system to intensify enough to reach hurricane intensity, but probably not until it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week
  • Eta
    may not be the last tropical cyclone to impact the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico
    • Another
      disturbance may form in the southern Caribbean sea late next week, although confidence is low
  • Tropical
    Depression Goni moved through central Vietnam Thursday and is producing significant rain in inland parts of mainland Southeast Asia
    • Very
      little crop damage is expected, although rainy weather will continue
  • Tropical
    Storm Astani was located near Taiwan this morning and it will pass well south of Hong Kong this weekend before dissipating on approach to the lower Vietnam coast Monday
  • Tropical
    disturbance east of Philippines today will move across central parts of the nation this weekend and then it will organize into a tropical cyclone while enroute to the lower central Vietnam coast Sunday into Monday
    • Landfall
      is expected in Vietnam Monday or early Tuesday and the storm will bring more rain and wind to a part of Vietnam’s Central Highlands
    • Coffee
      is not expected to be seriously impacted, but wind and rain will raise the potential for some cherry and bean droppage
  • Multiple
    precipitation events impacting Vietnam’s central coast over the next week will result in rain totals of 6.00 to 15.00 inches and local totals approaching 20.00 inches.
    • Flooding
      has been and will continue a serious impact along the central Vietnam coast where impressive rain totals in the past 30 days
    • More
      disruption to commerce and shipping will occur because of the additional rain
  • New
    Tropical cyclone is advertised to evolve between Guam and Philippines early next week and it may reach the northern Philippines late next week
  • Blizzard
    from Montana to northwestern Manitoba including much of Saskatchewan will stall travel, stress livestock and may knock power out for a while this weekend and Monday
    • Snow
      accumulations of 10 to 20 inches will be common with surrounding areas getting 4 to 10 inches. There is potential for a few areas to get 20 to 26 inches of snow
    • Moisture
      continent will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches
    • The
      storm will bring much improved soil moisture to the region when the snow melts
      • Most
        of these areas have been suffering from dryness for many months and the relief is needed to improve the planting and production outlook for 2021
  • West-central
    and southwestern U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will get little precipitation over the next ten days to two weeks
    • Some
      crop improvements occurred from precipitation earlier this season, but more is needed specially from central Kansas to southeastern Colorado and the northwestern Texas Panhandle
    • Recent
      very warm and dry weather has brought back some drying
  • High
    wind speeds in the central and northern Plains and upper Midwest this weekend could bring on power outages and induce some accidents for high profile vehicles
    • Speeds
      of 30 to 50 mph will occur in many areas from western Texas and eastern Colorado into Nebraska and in the western Dakotas and eastern Montana in association with the weekend blizzard to the west and north
  • U.S.
    Midwest and Delta harvest weather will remain good over the next ten days, despite a couple of fast moving weather disturbances
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will deal with frequent rain next week – mostly in Virginia and the Carolinas – resulting in harvest delays and wetter field conditions
    • Unharvested
      cotton quality could experience a little decline because of the rain
  • A
    slightly more active weather pattern in the U.S. Pacific Northwest will bring on periods of rain and mountain snow during the next two weeks.
    • Many
      valley locations will only receive light amounts of moisture, though
  • California
    will receive some of its first rain and mountain snow of the season today and Saturday, although amounts will be light and the distribution will be sporadic
  • Bitter
    cold air will return to the northwestern U.S. Plains, northern and central Rocky Mountain region and interior parts of the Pacific Northwest next week with cooling likely in the northwest half to two-thirds of the Great Plains, as well
  • West
    Texas precipitation will be minimal through the weekend, but some rain might occur briefly next week
    • The
      moisture will have a minor impact on the region
    • The
      impact on harvesting will be minimal
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region will be trending cooler over the next week to ten days limiting the potential for additional crop improvement from any new moisture that occurs
    • Recent
      precipitation gave some crops in western parts of Russia’s Southern Region and a part of Ukraine a late season lift in soil moisture that will help improve crops in the spring
      • Some
        improvement has occurred recently, but much of the precipitation in eastern Ukraine and western parts of Russia’s Southern Region was too late to induce better crop establishment prior to dormancy
        • That
          leaves crops more vulnerable to winterkill this year if there is not substantial snow on the ground during periods of harsh temperatures
    • Eastern
      portions of Russia’s Southern Region and Western Kazakhstan failed to get significant moisture this autumn raising worry over small grain production next spring
    • Overall,
      World Weather, Inc. believes enough of Ukraine and Russia’s Central Region received sufficient moisture this autumn to leave crops poised for improvement in the spring as long as winterkill is kept to a minimum. Crops in Russia’s Southern Region got their
      moisture much later and the risk of loss during the winter is higher than in production areas to the west and north.
  • Argentina’s
    dryness in central and eastern summer crop areas during the next ten days to two weeks will maintain worry over summer crop emergence, establishment and late planting
    • Fieldwork
      should advance well for a little while longer, but once the ground dries out fieldwork may slow and there will certainly be delays in crop emergence and establishment
    • There
      is still time for improvement, but there is not much rain in the pipeline today
  • Center
    west and southern Brazil will continue dry through the weekend, but scattered showers and thunderstorms expected next week will bring timely relief to many crop areas
    • Improved
      emergence and establishment conditions will occur to many areas that have been quite dry recently from southern Minas Gerais to Rio Grande do Sul and a few areas into Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay
      • A
        close watch will be needed on the distribution of rain next week to make sure all crop areas get needed moisture
      • There
        will be an ongoing need for more precipitation, however
  • Southeastern
    Australia rainfall over the next two weeks will be infrequent and light enough to protect winter crop quality while benefiting some summer crop planting and establishment.
  • Queensland,
    Australia dryland summer crop areas will get some showers this weekend and they will continue infrequently through the following ten days
    • The
      moisture will be good for dryland cotton, sorghum and other summer crop planting, emergence and establishment, although greater moisture will be needed in many areas to ensure the best soil moisture
    • Fieldwork
      will be slowed by the precipitation periodically
      • Unharvested
        winter grains will not be negatively impacted
  • Western
    Australia should get some showers today and again early next week
    • No
      serious impact on harvesting or unharvested crop quality is expected.
  • Some
    rain of significance will fall in Georgia and extreme southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region again today and possibly again late next week
  • China
    weather will remain favorably dry over the next ten days favoring winter crop planting and establishment as well as summer crop harvesting
    • Any
      showers that occur will be brief and light causing only a limited amount of disruption to fieldwork
    • Not
      much precipitation fell during the weekend
  • South
    Africa rain Thursday was welcome, but more is needed
    • Today
      and Saturday will be dry and then scattered showers and thunderstorms will resume again Sunday through next week providing a better mix of weather for the nation’s spring and summer crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well
    • Rain
      will be confined to the far south and a few areas in the far Eastern States
  • Waves
    of rain will continue to impact parts of Southeast Asia that are not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
    • This
      includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos and parts of the Philippines and Vietnam not impacted by tropical cyclones
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week
    • Most
      of the continent will report very little precipitation of significance
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will experience limited precipitation through early next week improving harvest progress in the region after abundant moisture in October
    • Some
      rain will fall briefly during mid-week next week followed by some additional net drying and then another storm in the second weekend of the outlook
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +3.41 this morning; the index vary in a narrow range over the next week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into mid-month, despite Tropical Depression Eta’s exit from a part of the region
    • Flooding
      has been extensive in Nicaragua and parts of Honduras this week
    • Rain
      will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama

 

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas are benefiting from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia
rainfall is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and northern parts of South Island while near to below average in southern South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Nov. 6:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

  • China’s
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Monday,
Nov. 9:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    winter wheat conditions; harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • EARNINGS:
    BRF SA

Tuesday,
Nov. 10:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Council webinar on China’s post-pandemic palm oil demand
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board releases data on end-October stockpiles, exports, production
  • Conab’s
    data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, SGS

Wednesday,
Nov. 11:

  • EARNINGS:
    JBS, Barry Callebaut
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Veterans Day, federal govt closed, CME trading unaffected), France, Canada

Thursday,
Nov. 12:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam
    customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in October
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • EARNINGS:
    BayWa, Marfrig

Friday,
Nov. 13:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
    • NOTE:
      CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 16, due to U.S. federal holiday
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices

Saturday,
Nov. 14:

  • China
    Animal Agriculture Association summit on hog recovery, ASF vaccine progress

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Non-Farm Payrolls Oct 638K (est 600K; prevR 672K; prev 661K)

US
Unemployment Rate Oct 6.9% (est 7.7%; prev 7.9%)

US
Private Payrolls Oct 906K (est 690K; prevR 892K; prev 877K)

-US
Manufacturing Payrolls Oct 38K (est 50K; prevR 60K; prev 66K)

-US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Oct 0.1% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.0%; prev 0.1%)

-US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Oct 4.5% (est 4.6%; prevR 4.6%; prev 4.7%)

-US
Average Workweek Hours Oct 34.8 (est 34.7; prevR 38.8; prev 34.7)

-US
Participation Rate Oct 61.7% (est 61.5%; prev 61.4%)

7:32:10
AM livesquawk Canada Net Change In Employment Oct 83.6K (est 100.0K; prevR K; prev 378.2K)

-Canada
Unemployment Rate Oct 8.9% (est 8.8%; prev 9.0%)

7:32:12
AM livesquawk Canada Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Oct 5.2% (est 5.4%; prev 5.4%)

 

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported export sales of:
    • 132,000
      tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year
    • 272,150
      tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year
    • 30,000tons
      of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2020/2021 marketing year
  • Egypt’s
    GASC seeks local vegetable oils on November 9 for Dec 25-Jan 15 arrival (2,000 sunflower oil and 3,000 soybean oil). 

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Pakistan
    bought 320,000 tons of wheat at $286.20/ton, c&f. It might originate from France or Australia. 
  • Yesterday
    Egypt’s GASC bought 300,000 tons of Russian wheat.  It included 180,000 tons for shipment Dec. 15-30 and 120,000 for shipment Jan. 8-18. 
  • Saudi
    Arabia seeks 600,000 tons of 12.5% protein wheat for February through March delivery.  Results might be out over the weekend.  
  • Syria
    seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Turkey
    seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on November 11 for Nov 24 and Dec 18 shipment. 
  • Lowest
    offer $286.20/ton:  Pakistan seeks 320,000 tons of wheat 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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