FI Morning Grain Comments 11/01/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

USD
is down 8 points.  WTI crude oil is about 76 cents higher.  US equities are suggesting a higher open.  It’s all about the wheat markets this morning with strong global import demand led by Saudi Arabia, which is helping corn.  Soybeans and meal are selling
off and soybean oil is finding bull spreading.  Chicago wheat is sitting near an 8-1/2 year high. 

 

The
southern and central Great Plains remained dry over the past few days, but snow did occur across some of the northern areas.  Rain will return to the southern Great Plains Tuesday through Wednesday.  It was very wet across the US Corn Belt over the weekend,
bias eastern growing areas and will turn drier this week.  SA saw rain including southern Argentina, a welcome sight.  Rains this week will fall across Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, southern Parana, Santa Catarina, and RGDS.  For Argentina rains is expected
across most of the growing areas, favoring Cordoba, Santa Fe, northern Entre Rios. 

 

 

The
CBOT updated daily limits for many agriculture contracts. Corn futures will move 5 cents lower. Soybeans will be down 10 cents.  SBO will expand 50 points and meal will decline $5.  KC and Chicago wheat will expand 5 cents.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 1, 2021

•  Not
  much change overnight.
• Argentina
  received significant rain during the weekend in the west and more rain is expected across much of the nation this week.
  
• Brazil
  weather was also favorably moist over the weekend with most areas getting rain at one time or another in the coming ten days.
  
• Eventually,
  some concern will evolve over less rainfall in eastern Argentina and southern Brazil, but the trend will not be an issue for the next ten days.
  
• U.S.
  weather is going to be much drier this week favoring improved harvest weather.
  
• Winter
  grain planting in the U.S. will also improve with some showers in the west-central and southwestern Plains briefly during mid-week offering a little reprieve from recent drying, although resulting amounts will be very light.
  
• Australia
  will be trending wetter in the east raising a little worry over unharvested winter crop quality later this month.
  
• Southern
  and some central India crop areas will trend wetter with “some” rain possibly getting into cotton areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra over time.
  
• Russia’s
  Volga Basin will receive restricted amounts of moisture, but winter crops are moving into dormancy.
  
• Europe
  weather will be wettest in Italy, southern France and neighboring areas for a while.
  
• South
  Africa is looking for greater rainfall to support spring and summer crop planting.
  
• Most
  oil palm, coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and citrus areas around the world will experience favorable weather conditions for a while.
  
• Colombia,
  western Venezuela and parts of Ecuador will stay wet. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 1:

• Australia
  Commodity Index, 1:30am
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• U.S.
  cotton condition; corn, soy and cotton harvesting; winter wheat planting, 4pm
• Malaysia’s
  October palm oil export data from AmSpec and SGS
• Honduras
  and Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
• Global
  cotton balance report from International Cotton Advisory Committee
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Italy, Spain, Ivory Coast

Tuesday,
Nov. 2:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 3:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Thursday,
Nov. 4:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price, 8pm Wednesday ET time
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Malaysia, Singapore

Friday,
Nov. 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish demand-supply reports on corn, soy and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Nov. 1-5 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
COT

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher from good US ethanol margins and sharply higher wheat. 

·        
US weather improves this week for harvesting progress. It will be cold in many areas but that tends to keep rains away.  Some additional snow will occur across the far northern states. 

·        
The USD down 8 points. 

·        
AgRural: Brazil 2021-22 corn plantings reached 63 percent compared to 53% previous week and 54 percent year ago. 

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans and meal are lower while SBO is seeing bull spreading.  China’s soybean complex futures were mixed with beans up 1%, meal down 1.7% and SBO up 0.1%.  Palm oil futures fell 64 ringgit and cash palm oil was unchanged
at $1,267.50/ton.  Later NASS will release its US grain and soybean crush reports. 

·        
CBOT soybean deliveries were 917 contracts that included some commercial activity.  Registrations were unchanged. 

·        
AgRural: Brazil 2021-22 soybean crop plantings reached 52% of the estimated area as of Oct. 28 (second-fastest pace ever for this time of year), up 14 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the 42% for the same
period of 2020-21.

·        
Malaysian palm oil exports during October reached 1.469 million tons, down 13 percent from 1,698,683 tons shipped during September, according to ITS.

·        
SGS reported palm shipments during October down 13.4 percent to 1.477 million tons. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures:

·        
Rotterdam meal values were mostly 0.50-5.00 euros lower and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 38 points lower and meal $4.70 short ton lower. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.27/bu, compared to $2.32 at the end of last week and compares to $1.15 a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

·        
Egypt’s GASC seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on Wednesday for arrival Dec. 20 – Jan. 10, with 180-day letters of credit and/or at sight.

·        
The USDA seeks 20 tons of vegetable oil in 4-liter cans for Dec 1-13 shipment on November 2.

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are sharply higher on strong global wheat demand. 

·        
US Great Plains weather improves this week with some showers early to mid-week across the southern Great Plains. 

·        
Paris December wheat was up 5.00 euros by around 7:40 am CT at 288.25. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Egypt’s GASC seeks wheat and lowest offer was $331.90 per ton fob for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat, for December 11-20 shipment. 

·        
Saudi Arabia bought 1.268 million tons of wheat at an average price of $377.54/ton for Q1 2022 arrival.  There were in for 655,000 tons.  Most origins were unknown at this time but at least 120,000 tons may come from Russia. 

·        
Pakistan issued an import tender for 90,000 tons of wheat set to close Nov. 4 for Jan through April shipment. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
CBOT rice registrations fell 134 lots.

·        
Results awaited: Maldives seeks 25,000 tons of parboiled rice with offers due by October 28.