FI Morning Grain Comments 10/29/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of:

279,415
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year

132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

222,350
metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

The
USD is up 40 points and crude oil $0.70 lower.  Soybean complex is higher along with nearby corn, but we speculate prices could turn lower as soybeans are up a good amount from this time last week.  Wheat is taking a breather.  News is extremely light this
morning.  We look for US crop harvesting progress to be up less than 10 points for both corn and soybeans when updated on Monday. 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 29, 2021

• No
  major changes in the world overnight.
• U.S.
  harvest progress in the Midwest and southeastern states was on hold because of rain.
  
• Some
  of the delays in fieldwork will continue this weekend as rain lingers in the eastern Midwest, but cool weather into next week will limit drying rates.
  
• Freezes
  in the northern half of the Midwest and northern and central Plains this weekend into next week will not have a negative impact on any crops.
  
• Dry
  conditions will prevail in the west-central and southwestern U.S. Plains
• The
  latest data from the western United States still shows water reservoir levels dismally low despite the past week of rain in northern California.
  
• In
  Brazil, weather conditions will remain nearly ideal for the advancement of planting and crop development.
  
• Argentina
  still has a dryness problem, but if rain falls as advertised in the next couple of weeks there may be enough moisture to limit moisture stress for parts of the nation.
  
• More
  rain will still be needed in Argentina.
• Some
  welcome rain occurred in eastern Australia Thursday and periodic rain will continue through the next two weeks improving the outlook for summer crop planting.
  
• Winter
  crops will need to be closely monitored in eastern Australia for signs of too much moisture.
  
• The
  Black Sea region will continue drier biased for a while longer as will eastern Europe.
  
• Western
  Europe will be trending wetter in this coming week
• China
  will experience a good mix of weather over the next two weeks
• India
  will be wet in the south but dry in the central and north.
• South
  Africa benefited from rain Thursday but needs more throughout summer crop areas. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases October trade data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Friday,
Oct. 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases October trade data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Monday,
Nov. 1:

• Australia
  Commodity Index, 1:30am
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• U.S.
  cotton condition; corn, soy and cotton harvesting; winter wheat planting, 4pm
• Malaysia’s
  October palm oil export data from AmSpec and SGS
• Honduras
  and Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
• Global
  cotton balance report from International Cotton Advisory Committee
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Italy, Spain, Ivory Coast

Tuesday,
Nov. 2:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 3:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Thursday,
Nov. 4:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price, 8pm Wednesday ET time
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Malaysia, Singapore

Friday,
Nov. 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish demand-supply reports on corn, soy and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Nov. 1-5 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income Sep: -1.0% (est -0.3%; prev 0.2%; prevR 1.0%)

–
Personal Spending Sep: 0.6% (est 0.6%; prev 0.8%)

–
Real Personal Spending Sep: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Sep: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%)

–
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Sep: 3.6% (est 3.7%; prev 3.6%)

–
PCE Deflator (M/M) Sep: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%)

–
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Sep: 4.4% (est 4.4%; prev 4.3%)

US
Employment Cost Index Q3: 1.3% (est 0.9%; prev 0.7%)

Canadian
GDP (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (est 0.7%; prev -0.1%)

–
GDP (Y/Y) Aug: 4.1% (est 4.3%; prev 4.7%)

Canadian
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Sep

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are slightly higher in the nearby months and lower in the far back months on lack of direction, higher soybeans and lower wheat.  Without substantial US export corn developments, we can’t see this market hold these
levels without wheat prices trading near a three month high (Chicago). 

·        
Note the USD is sharply higher. 

·        
Wet weather was seen across the ECB Thursday into Friday, delaying harvesting activity.

·        
The US weather forecast has not changed much and look for stress to build up across parts of the southern Great Plains with lack of rain and ongoing harvest progress bias Corn Belt with persistent rains. 

·        
France harvested 54 percent of their corn crop as of October 25, up from 32 percent week earlier and well down from a dry season of 87 percent around that time year ago. 

 

Export
developments.

• USDA:
  Private exporters reported sales of:
• 279,415
  metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year
• 132,000
  metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
• 222,350
  metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are higher despite a sharply higher USD. 

·        
First Notice Day deliveries for soybeans were a large 1,318 contracts, with nearly all of them fresh registered contracts.  Remember a week ago there were a bunch of EFPs done and open interest dropped about 132k since then. 
Soybean open interest fell 23,367 on Thursday alone. 

·        
China vegetable oil futures rallied overnight and with palm higher, that might be supporting CBOT soybean oil. 

·        
(Reuters) – Top palm oil exporter Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price at $1,283.38 a ton for November, raising the export tax to the maximum level, Musdhalifah Machmud, a deputy minister at the Coordinating Ministry
of Economic Affairs.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures:

·        
Rotterdam meal values were mixed euros lower and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 93 points higher (149 for the week to date) and meal $0.30 short ton lower ($11 lower for the week). 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.32/bu ($2.39 previous), down from $2.47 at the end of last week and compares to $1.39 a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

·        
The USDA seeks 20 tons of vegetable oil in 4-liter cans for Dec 1-13 shipment on November 2.

·        
See corn export developments for USDA 24-hour announcements on soybeans

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on profit taking and a higher USD. 

·        
The US Great Plains will turn drier today through the weekend, adding stress to the recently planted winter wheat crop. 

·        
Rain is expected to occur across western NE Sunday, then spread to KS and northeast CO early next week. 

·        
Paris December wheat was down 0.75 euro by around 7:55 am CT at 282.25. 

·        
Ukraine harvested 81 percent of their grain crop or 60.7 million tons, according to the AgMin.  80.3 MMT total is seen. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 655,000 tons of wheat on October 29. 

·        
Pakistan issued an import tender for 90,000 tons of wheat set to close Nov. 4 for Jan through April shipment. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Maldives seeks 25,000 tons of parboiled rice with offers due by October 28.