PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Another
lower trade before the electronic pause and USDA export sales report on global economic fears. WTI down $1.84 and USD up 37.  South Korea bought at least three more corn cargoes overnight.  Iran bought 260k barley but passed on corn.  27 soybean meal receipts
were cancelled out of Gilman, IL.  China soybean futures were up 1.2 percent, meal down 1.3 percent and China SBO down 1.2 percent.  China cash crush margins improved to 126 cents on out our calculation from 106 previous.  Offshore values this morning were
leading CBOT soybean oil 29 higher and meal $2.10 higher. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

cone graphic

 

 

 

SA Week 2 Accum Precipitation (mm) ForecastSA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

            A
mostly good mix of weather is expected in Brazil and Argentina over the next couple of weeks. Some concern over dryness will remain in northwestern Argentina and as long as timely rain impacts southern Brazil all will be fine, but southern Brazil’s soil moisture
is a little light and the region could become too dry relatively quickly if rainfall proves to be insignificant.

            Good
harvest weather is also expected in India and China while some rain in eastern Australia will be good for summer crops and a little late season canola. South Africa will get better rain this weekend and next week to improve planting conditions.

            In
the U.S., weather has been poor this week in the lower Midwest portions of the Plains, the Delta and southeastern states, but it will improve greatly with drier weather this weekend next week.

            Overall,
weather today will contribute mixed bias on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT

            Significant
moisture in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas this week has eased worry over dryness, although warming is now needed to bring on improved crop emergence and establishment while supporting some new planting. A few west-central Plains crop areas might still benefit
from more rain if it were to evolve.

Showers
in Russia’s Southern region and eastern Ukraine Friday through much of next week will induce some soil moisture and crop improvement along with a few eastern Ukraine locations, but the changes are not going to be dramatic because of the lateness of the season.
Some root and tiller development is expected until cooler temperatures arrive in about ten days.

            China
and India weather remains good and that in Australia seems to be favorably mixed, despite worry over crop quality. Australia will need drier weather in the winter crop harvest areas soon to protect grain quality. A couple of rain events are now expected in
Western Australia, but the rain will come a little too late for a serious benefit to yields. Some grain quality improvement is likely in southern Western Australia.

            South
Africa winter crops are rated mostly good and Brazil still has a fair to good wheat crop coming along. Argentina’s recent rain has improved its winter crop production potential.

            U.S.
Midwest soft wheat is a little too wet and needs to dry down and that will come along late this week and into next week, but more rain and some snow will occur until then.

            Overall,
weather today will contribute a bearish bias to market mentality.

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 29:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • EARNINGS:
    ADM
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia

Friday,
Oct. 30:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

·        
Export sales for the US soybean complex were withing expectations.  Of the 1.621 million tons of soybeans, 1.074 million were for China.  Soybean commitments are running 81 percent of USDA’s export projection. 

·        
Corn export sales of 2.244 million tons were well above expectations and included 763,700 tons for unknown.  Pork sales were 29,000 tons.

·        
USDA export sales for all-wheat of 743,200 tons were above expectations. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q3 A: 33.1% (est 32.0%; prev -31.4%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q3 A: 3.5% (est 4.0%; prev -0.8%)

US
GDP Price Index Q3 A: 3.6% (est 2.9%; prev -1.8%)

US
GDP Personal Consumption Q3 A: 40.7% (est 38.9%; prev -33.2%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Oct 24: 751K (est 770K; prevR 791K; prev 787K)

US
Continuing Claims Oct 17: 7756K (est 7775K; prevR 8465K; prev 8373K)

Canadian
Building Permits (M/M) Sep: 17.0% (prev 1.7%)

Canadian
Payrolls Rise 303.2K In August – StatsCan

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • CBOT
    soybean open interest was down 30,937 contracts. 
  • Yesterday
    funds were net sellers of 25,000 soybean futures, 6,000 soybean meal contracts, and 5,000 soybean oil contracts on the session.
  • China
    buying interest for Brazilian soybeans increased Wednesday for March through July shipment.  At least one cargo traded, for April shipment. 
  • Last
    week the US sold one cargo of soybeans to Brazil and traders are still trying to figure out logistics.
  • China
    may start sourcing soybeans from Tanzania but volumes, if any, will be low.  Tanzania has a wide trade gap (in the red) with China. 
  • Hurricane
    Zeta that hit Louisiana coast is expected to slow US Gulf grain loadings.  This is the record fifth hurricane or tropical storm to hit Louisiana this year. 
  • Argentina’s
    oilseed crushing union SOEA, which represents workers located in San Lorenzo in Santa Fe, said the 11,000 peso covid-19 relief payment ($140.72) fell short of expectations. 
  • China
    rapeseed oil futures were up nearly 3% on Thursday due to demand from state-backed stock replenishment, shrugging off wider bearishness across global financial markets.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Wheat

  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was down 1.00 at 203.00 euros.
  • The
    USDA Attaché sees Argentina’s 2020-21 wheat production at 17.4 million tons, 1.6 million tons below USDA’s official forecast.  Local estimates are as low as 16.5 million tons. 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_10-15-2020

  • South
    Africa’s CEC estimates 2020 wheat production at 2.135 million tons compared to 1.535 million tons last year. 
  • Rains
    should favor far eastern Queensland, eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, and eastern South Australia through Saturday. 
  • Southern
    Russia will see rain on and off through at least the first week of November.  Most of Russia’s winter grain areas will see slightly above normal temperatures which will be beneficial for crop establishment.

 

Export
Developments.

  • Results
    awaited:  Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea on October 28.
  • Yesterday
    Jordan bought 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat at $279.00/ton and $279.90/ton C&F for LH February to FH March shipment.   
  • Pakistan
    seeks 320,000 tons of wheat on November 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Vietnam Jan-Oct rice exports fell 4.0 percent from the previous ten months in 2019 to 5.29 million tons. 

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/22/2020       

 





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

130.7

1,553.2

1,190.9

220.8

4,365.1

4,195.6

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

16.8

384.8

573.3

35.9

915.3

1,248.7

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

150.1

1,566.0

1,234.0

91.1

2,995.7

2,758.6

40.0

45.0

   WHITE   

448.7

1,823.0

943.3

77.9

2,017.4

1,836.6

20.0

20.0

   DURUM  

-3.1

200.9

279.0

16.9

338.5

317.9

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

743.2

5,527.8

4,220.5

442.5

10,632.1

10,357.3

60.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

31.6

38.0

1.3

10.4

19.5

0.0

0.0

CORN

2,243.7

24,453.2

7,784.0

734.2

6,125.1

3,621.1

0.0

206.0

SORGHUM

60.8

2,756.9

276.1

56.4

519.9

46.0

68.0

204.0

SOYBEANS

1,620.7

32,850.8

11,316.7

2,696.1

14,119.3

7,831.3

9.0

69.0

SOY MEAL

199.3

3,494.3

3,115.4

298.1

646.2

790.1

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

6.0

190.3

147.2

9.4

30.9

86.0

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

20.5

518.0

409.5

27.7

153.3

370.7

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

20.7

18.8

0.5

8.2

12.0

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.0

12.0

14.9

0.1

9.4

13.1

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.0

19.8

11.2

0.9

29.8

1.3

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

58.9

86.2

151.5

20.5

109.0

287.4

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

42.1

150.6

130.1

5.0

84.9

135.0

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

121.5

807.4

735.9

54.5

394.6

819.5

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

288.7

5,821.8

7,029.8

228.8

2,927.9

2,354.4

0.9

521.1

   PIMA

32.7

271.4

131.5

15.9

139.1

99.8

0.0

0.7

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 16-22, 2020.

 

·        
Wheat:
  Net
sales of 743,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (195,000 MT), Mexico (111,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (61,700
MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), the Philippines (60,000 MT), and China (60,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Guatemala (14,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 60,000 MT were for the Philippines.  Exports of 442,500 MT were up noticeably
from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (105,400 MT), Guatemala (70,700 MT), Brazil (65,900 MT, including 32,900 MT late – see below), Taiwan (53,200 MT), and Mexico (39,100 MT). 
Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain. 
Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, exports totaling 46,000 MT were reported late.  The destinations were Brazil (32,900 MT) and Trinidad (13,100 MT).

  • Corn: 
    Net sales of 2,243,700 MT for 2020/2021 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (763,700 MT), Mexico (496,800 MT, including decreases of 7,000 MT), Japan (483,200
    MT, including 11,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 58,400 MT), Colombia (187,100 MT, including decreases of 16,300 MT), and Israel (82,500 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (15,500 MT), Costa Rica (13,500 MT),
    and Canada (7,600 MT).  Exports of 734,200 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (253,200 MT), China (134,100 MT), Colombia (80,000 MT), Japan (71,400 MT), and
    Guatemala (62,300 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 322,800 MT were reported for Japan (123,000 MT), unknown destinations (114,000 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT), Ukraine (30,000 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).  Options
    was exercised to export 127,000 MT to Argentina from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 1,030,600 MT is for Vietnam (260,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), unknown destinations (167,600 MT), Ukraine (155,000 MT), Japan (123,000 MT),
    and South Korea (120,000 MT).
  • Barley: 
    No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,300 MT were to Japan (700 MT), South Korea (300 MT), and Taiwan (300 MT).
  • Sorghum: 
    Net sales of 60,800 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (118,800 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (58,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net
    sales of 68,000 MT were for China.  Exports of 56,400 MT were to China.
  • Rice: 
    Net sales of 121,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 99 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Haiti (52,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (39,000 MT), Mexico (20,100 MT, including decreases
    of 100 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), and Brazil (2,000 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (1,000 MT).  Exports of 54,500 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week, but up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
    to Brazil (25,900 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (3,000 MT), and Canada (2,800 MT).
  • Soybeans: 
    Net sales of 1,620,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,073,900 MT, including 593,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 88,400
    MT), Mexico (178,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), the Netherlands (175,600 MT, including 165,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,400 MT), Egypt (153,400 MT), and Singapore (65,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for
    unknown destinations (350,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 9,000 MT were for Japan.  Exports of 2,696,100 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,939,800
    MT), Mexico (187,400 MT), the Netherlands (175,600 MT), Thailand (82,300 MT), and South Korea (60,000 MT). 
    Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 126,000 MT, all China. 
    Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 25,000 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 32,300 MT, all Canada. 
    Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, exports totaling 28,400 MT were reported late.  The destination was Egypt.
  • Soybean
    Cake and Meal
    :  Net
    sales of 199,300 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for Mexico (84,200 MT, including decreases of 18,100 MT), Colombia (44,400 MT), Ecuador (24,400 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), the Philippines (20,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Morocco (16,500
    MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (20,000 MT).  Exports of 298,100 MT were primarily to Spain (50,900 MT), the Philippines (46,900 MT), Mexico (44,300 MT), Colombia (34,500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (31,200 MT). 
  • Soybean
    Oil: 
    Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for Canada (2,200 MT), El Salvador (2,000 MT, switched from Nicaragua), the Dominican Republic (1,100 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Venezuela (1,000 MT), and Costa Rica (1,000 MT), were offset
    by reductions for Nicaragua (2,000 MT).  Exports of 9,400 MT were primarily to Guatemala (4,500 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Honduras (1,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT).
  • Cotton: 
    Net sales of 288,700 RB for 2020/2021 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (125,900 RB, including decreases of 700 RB), China (81,400 RB, including decreases of 12,500 RB),
    Mexico (41,600 RB, including decreases of 2,800 RB), Egypt (26,400 RB), and Vietnam (25,800 RB, including 2,100 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 1,900 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Turkey (40,300 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 900
    RB resulting in increases of Mexico (3,100 RB) and Brazil (400 RB), were offset by reductions for China (2,600 RB).  Exports of 228,800 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China
    (103,600 RB), Vietnam (22,600 RB), Mexico (17,500 RB), Pakistan (16,200 RB), and Indonesia (12,500 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 32,700 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 10 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
    were primarily for China (10,600 RB, including decreases of 2,200 RB), India (6,000 RB), Vietnam (5,400 RB, including 900 RB switched from Hong Kong), Pakistan (4,100 RB), and Thailand (2,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (900 RB).  Exports
    of 15,900 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (6,700 RB), Bangladesh (2,900 RB), Vietnam (2,600 RB), India (1,000 RB), and Pakistan (700 RB).  
    Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, exports for own account totaling 7,400 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 12,700 RB is for China (7,800 RB), Indonesia (3,900 RB),
    and Bangladesh (1,000 RB).
  • Hides
    and Skins:
     
    Net sales of 417,100 pieces for 2020 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (334,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 21,800 pieces), South Korea (51,400 whole
    cattle hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), Mexico (26,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,500 pieces), Taiwan (3,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Thailand (3,400 whole cattle hides), and Italy (700 whole cattle
    hides), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 pieces).  Additionally, total net sales reductions of 300 kip skins were reported for Belgium.  Exports of 457,600 pieces reported for 2020 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior
    4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (355,600 pieces), South Korea (49,100 pieces), Mexico (35,700 pieces), Taiwan (3,500 pieces), and Turkey (2,900 pieces).  In addition, exports of 5,100 kip skins were primary to China (2,600
    kip skins).

·        
Net sales of 59,600 wet blues

for 2020 were down 66 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Thailand (45,600 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit), ), China (30,400 unsplit, including decreases of 700 unsplit), Vietnam
(9,500 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Taiwan (9,300 unsplit), and Mexico (3,300 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Italy (30,800 unsplit and 8,300 grain splits) and Brazil (200 grain splits).  For 2021,
total net sales of 67,400 wet blues were reported for Italy (33,000 unsplit and 17,900 grain splits), Thailand (10,000 unsplit), and Taiwan (6,500 unsplit).  Exports of 185,900 wet blues for 2020 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (56,200 unsplit), Italy (29,000 unsplit and 6,600 grain splits), Vietnam (31,300 unsplit and 4,000 grain splits), Thailand (31,300 unsplit), and Brazil (7,600 grain splits and 2,400 unsplit). 
Net sales of 7,900 splits were for Vietnam (7,400 pounds, including decreases of 15,000 pounds) and Taiwan (500 pounds).  For 2021, total net sales of 721,300 splits were for Vietnam.  Exports of 441,500 pounds were to Vietnam (358,000 pounds), Taiwan (42,500
pounds), and China (41,000 pounds).

·        
Beef: 
Net
sales of 18,900 MT reported for 2020 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (4,300 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (4,200 MT, including decreases
of 1,500 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Colombia (100 MT) and Chile (100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 4,600 MT were primarily for Japan (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT),
Hong Kong (500 MT), and Guatemala (200 MT).  Exports of 16,900 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), Hong
Kong (1,700 MT), and China (1,600 MT).

·        
Pork: 
Net
sales of 29,000 MT reported for 2020 were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (8,400 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Japan (6,400 MT, including decreases of 200
MT),  South Korea (2,900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and Australia (2,200 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 7,000 MT were primarily for Australia (5,500 MT) and China (1,300 MT).  Exports of 37,100 MT were
up 2 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (12,900 MT), Mexico (11,000 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), and South Korea (2,100 MT).

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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