PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Another
lower trade before the electronic pause and USDA export sales report on global economic fears. WTI down $1.84 and USD up 37.  South Korea bought at least three more corn cargoes overnight.  Iran bought 260k barley but passed on corn.  27 soybean meal receipts
were cancelled out of Gilman, IL.  China soybean futures were up 1.2 percent, meal down 1.3 percent and China SBO down 1.2 percent.  China cash crush margins improved to 126 cents on out our calculation from 106 previous.  Offshore values this morning were
leading CBOT soybean oil 29 higher and meal $2.10 higher. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

cone graphic

 

 

 

SA Week 2 Accum Precipitation (mm) ForecastSA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

            A
mostly good mix of weather is expected in Brazil and Argentina over the next couple of weeks. Some concern over dryness will remain in northwestern Argentina and as long as timely rain impacts southern Brazil all will be fine, but southern Brazil’s soil moisture
is a little light and the region could become too dry relatively quickly if rainfall proves to be insignificant.

            Good
harvest weather is also expected in India and China while some rain in eastern Australia will be good for summer crops and a little late season canola. South Africa will get better rain this weekend and next week to improve planting conditions.

            In
the U.S., weather has been poor this week in the lower Midwest portions of the Plains, the Delta and southeastern states, but it will improve greatly with drier weather this weekend next week.

            Overall,
weather today will contribute mixed bias on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT

            Significant
moisture in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas this week has eased worry over dryness, although warming is now needed to bring on improved crop emergence and establishment while supporting some new planting. A few west-central Plains crop areas might still benefit
from more rain if it were to evolve.

Showers
in Russia’s Southern region and eastern Ukraine Friday through much of next week will induce some soil moisture and crop improvement along with a few eastern Ukraine locations, but the changes are not going to be dramatic because of the lateness of the season.
Some root and tiller development is expected until cooler temperatures arrive in about ten days.

            China
and India weather remains good and that in Australia seems to be favorably mixed, despite worry over crop quality. Australia will need drier weather in the winter crop harvest areas soon to protect grain quality. A couple of rain events are now expected in
Western Australia, but the rain will come a little too late for a serious benefit to yields. Some grain quality improvement is likely in southern Western Australia.

            South
Africa winter crops are rated mostly good and Brazil still has a fair to good wheat crop coming along. Argentina’s recent rain has improved its winter crop production potential.

            U.S.
Midwest soft wheat is a little too wet and needs to dry down and that will come along late this week and into next week, but more rain and some snow will occur until then.

            Overall,
weather today will contribute a bearish bias to market mentality.

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 29:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • EARNINGS:
    ADM
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia

Friday,
Oct. 30:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

·        
Export sales for the US soybean complex were withing expectations.  Of the 1.621 million tons of soybeans, 1.074 million were for China.  Soybean commitments are running 81 percent of USDA’s export projection.