FI Morning Grain Comments 10/25/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

CBOT
soybeans, corn and wheat futures are higher this morning from US harvest delays, higher lead in outside markets, and tight global wheat stocks.  WTI crude oil earlier hit $85/barrel.  There were a lot of soybean EFPs executed on Friday and our thinking is
traders are positioning ahead of FND deliveries.  The ECB will remain very wet this week, bis northern growing areas.  There will be a small window of dry weather, but it will take a few days for fields to dry down.  Argentina and Brazil saw scattered showers
over the weekend, but Argentina needs additional rain and the outlook this week looks fairly dry. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 25, 2021

• Excessive
  rain was reported Sunday and early this morning in northern California where flooding has become widespread.
  
• Rainfall
  of 3.00 to 9.00 inches and local totals over 11.00 inches have occurred with more rain expected today.
  
• Central
  Vietnam coastal areas also reported excessive rain again for the second weekend in a row with more than 19.00 inches occurring at Hue.
  
• A
  tropical disturbance in the South China Sea will bring at least one more round of heavy rain to central Vietnam Tuesday into Wednesday. 
  
• Most
  of the U.S. Midwest and parts of the Delta and southeastern states will experience enough rain this week to stall harvest progress, but next week looks drier.
  
• U.S.
  Hard red winter wheat areas will continue dry biased for the next week to ten days as will be Montana and neighboring areas of Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada.
  
• Argentina
  is advertised to receive greater rainfall in the coming week than advertised Friday and that should prove beneficial to winter and spring crops and fieldwork.
  
• Brazil
  experienced abundant rain in many areas during the weekend, but the south is expected to trend drier during the next ten days while rain continues in center west and center south production areas.
  
• Australia,
  northern and eastern China, central and northern India, much of Europe and southern parts of the CIS; including Ukraine and the middle and lower Volga River Basin of Russia will experience drier biased weather promoting fieldwork and winter crop development. 
• South
  Africa will receive some beneficial rain for spring and summer crop planting, but winter grain harvesting may be slowed in some areas
• Southern
  India will receive some heavy rain in the coming week, but amounts have been reduced from those advertised Sunday

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Oct. 25:

• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• U.S.
  cotton condition; corn, soy and cotton harvesting; winter wheat planting, 4pm
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-25 palm oil exports
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  New Zealand

Tuesday,
Oct. 26:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• EARNINGS:
  WH Group

Wednesday,
Oct. 27:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases cane crush, sugar output data (tentative)

Thursday,
Oct. 28:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Oct. 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases October trade data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI