PDF attached




soybeans, corn and wheat futures are higher this morning from US harvest delays, higher lead in outside markets, and tight global wheat stocks.  WTI crude oil earlier hit $85/barrel.  There were a lot of soybean EFPs executed on Friday and our thinking is
traders are positioning ahead of FND deliveries.  The ECB will remain very wet this week, bis northern growing areas.  There will be a small window of dry weather, but it will take a few days for fields to dry down.  Argentina and Brazil saw scattered showers
over the weekend, but Argentina needs additional rain and the outlook this week looks fairly dry. 







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Weather Inc.


  • Excessive
    rain was reported Sunday and early this morning in northern California where flooding has become widespread.
    • Rainfall
      of 3.00 to 9.00 inches and local totals over 11.00 inches have occurred with more rain expected today.
  • Central
    Vietnam coastal areas also reported excessive rain again for the second weekend in a row with more than 19.00 inches occurring at Hue.
  • A
    tropical disturbance in the South China Sea will bring at least one more round of heavy rain to central Vietnam Tuesday into Wednesday. 
  • Most
    of the U.S. Midwest and parts of the Delta and southeastern states will experience enough rain this week to stall harvest progress, but next week looks drier.
  • U.S.
    Hard red winter wheat areas will continue dry biased for the next week to ten days as will be Montana and neighboring areas of Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada.
  • Argentina
    is advertised to receive greater rainfall in the coming week than advertised Friday and that should prove beneficial to winter and spring crops and fieldwork.
  • Brazil
    experienced abundant rain in many areas during the weekend, but the south is expected to trend drier during the next ten days while rain continues in center west and center south production areas.
  • Australia,
    northern and eastern China, central and northern India, much of Europe and southern parts of the CIS; including Ukraine and the middle and lower Volga River Basin of Russia will experience drier biased weather promoting fieldwork and winter crop development. 
  • South
    Africa will receive some beneficial rain for spring and summer crop planting, but winter grain harvesting may be slowed in some areas
  • Southern
    India will receive some heavy rain in the coming week, but amounts have been reduced from those advertised Sunday


Ag Calendar

Oct. 25:

  • Monthly
    MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    poultry slaughter, 3pm
  • U.S.
    cotton condition; corn, soy and cotton harvesting; winter wheat planting, 4pm
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-25 palm oil exports
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
    New Zealand

Oct. 26:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
    WH Group

Oct. 27:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Brazil’s
    Unica releases cane crush, sugar output data (tentative)

Oct. 28:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Oct. 29:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases October trade data
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI