PDF attached

 

Morning.

Quiet
start to Friday’s trade except for a rally in wheat amid increase in global import demand.  USD was lower and WTI crude oil higher.  China palm and soybean oil futures were up about 1.6-1.7 percent on Friday.  Palm oil in Malaysian was near unchanged.  China
cash crush margins were largely steady on out calculation.  We heard China bought 4 US soybean cargoes late Thursday out of the PNW and Gulf.  They were inquiring for Q1 Brazil shipment, but no trades were heard of. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

EARLY
MORNING WEATHER UPDATE

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • European
    forecast model greatly increased precipitation in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas for next week
    • The
      increase was overdone and unlikely to verify
  • European
    forecast model increased precipitation in Russia’s Southern Region Oct. 30-Nov 2
    • This
      increase was overdone
    • The
      first week of the outlook remains mostly dry
  • European
    model run is a little wetter in Brazil through Monday, but rain in Parana,  Sao Paulo and neighboring areas is still advertised to be limited thereafter
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive some needed precipitation during the late weekend through early part of next week easing dryness, but follow up moisture will still be needed

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO CONSIDER FOR WEEKEND

  • Dryness
    will continue for much of the next week in Russia’s Southern Region
    • Some
      showers are possible infrequently, but the amount of relief will be restricted
    • Remember
      that a part of this region did get some relief from dryness earlier this week
    • Temperatures
      will remain warmer than usual over the next week to ten days maintaining a favorable environment for winter crop establishment for those areas with topsoil moisture
    • There
      is potential for rain in the Oct. 30-Nov. 3 period, but it will be light
  • Ukraine
    precipitation will be limited through the next ten days, but recent moisture has been helpful for winter crop establishment except in the far east where there is still a pressing need for significant moisture
  • Kazakhstan
    is unlikely to get meaningful moisture in the next ten days, although some sporadic showers may evolve after the end of next week
  • Argentina
    has received beneficial rain this week and more will occur this weekend
    • Rainfall
      Saturday and Sunday will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches with local totals to 3.00 to 4.00 inches favoring the south and east
    • Follow
      up showers will produce 0.15 to 0.70 inch of moisture Tuesday and Wednesday
    • Mostly
      dry thereafter until Nov. 5 when showers develop in the far south and possibly shift to east-central areas Nov. 6-7 (confidence is low on this event)
  • Argentina
    rain Thursday was not very great with amounts to 0.25 inch; however, some rain overnight in northeastern Santa Fe, southern Corrientes and southern Chaco varied from 0.35 to 0.68 inch with one location in southern Corrientes reporting an unconfirmed 3.06 inches
    through dawn
  • Brazil
    will see rain in most of the nation during the coming ten days
    • Interior
      southern areas will receive the lightest amounts and may experience the most aggressive planting, although will have need for more rain in November
    • Center
      west into Minas Gerais and southern Bahia will receive frequent rainfall especially next week and into the first week of November possibly slowing fieldwork at times
      • Rain
        will be heaviest and most frequent from Goias into Minas Gerais where some farming activity could be slowed
  • Brazil
    rainfall Thursday was erratic with northeastern Minas Gerais, central Goias, northwestern Mato Grosso, eastern Santa Catarina and southern Rio Grande do Sul reporting the most significant amounts
    • Moisture
      totals were rarely more than 0.60 inch through dawn today with as much as 1.00 inch in central Goias
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain at various times from Sunday into Tuesday
    • Moisture
      totals will be light in western Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northwestern Texas Panhandle and more significant in other areas
      • The
        lighter precipitation areas will receive up to 0.20 inch of moisture
      • Southwestern
        Nebraska to northeastern Colorado will receive up to 0.35 inch of moisture
      • Southeastern
        Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma will receive 0.20 to 0.60 inch of moisture
      • Central
        Oklahoma to central and eastern wheat areas of Kansas will receive 0.25 to 0.75 inch of moisture with a few amounts over 1.00 inch
        • Greatest
          rain will be in north-central Texas to southeastern wheat areas in Oklahoma where 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain may fall
    • Snowfall
      will range from 3 to 6 inches and local totals to 8 inches from southwestern Nebraska to northeastern Colorado and 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 4-5 inches elsewhere in the wheat region
      • Some
        snow will fall as far south western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma
  • U.S.
    northern Plains and upper Midwest snow event Thursday produced 4 to 10 inches of snow with local totals to 12 inches from northern and central South Dakota and southern North Dakota into central and interior northern Minnesota
  • U.S.
    Livestock stress will be ongoing this weekend in the northern Plains and will develop in the central Plains as temperatures plummet and snow begins to fly
  • Extreme
    cold temperatures will occur in the Great Plains this weekend and early next week with lows in the negative and positive single digits into western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and far northwestern Kansas
  • U.S.
    harvest weather will deteriorate over the coming week due to waves of rain and some snow
  • Harvest
    delays are expected in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin through most of next week and possibly into the first days of November because of the region’s deep snowpack and expected wet field conditions that will follow the snow melt
  • North
    America warming is expected is the second half of next week through the first week in November and precipitation should be more limited favoring better harvest progress in areas that are not too wet
    • Some
      drying is needed before fieldwork can resume in the central Midwest as well as the northwestern Corn Belt
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will experience waves of rain over the coming week the greatest of which will occur during the workweek next week
    • Delays
      in harvest progress will result
    • Drier
      weather will occur in the following week
    • Some
      heavy rain might evolve if tropical moisture streams north to merge with a mid-latitude storm system as advertised in some models today
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will receive rain and snow this weekend bringing a moisture boost to some crop areas while boosting mountain snowpack
  • California
    and the southwestern United States will remain dry for much of the coming ten days
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada harvest delays will continue for one more week because of frequent precipitation
    • The
      region needs to dry out
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience a notable rain, freezing rain and snow event early next week, but most of this year’s harvest is done
  • Eastern
    Australia will be closely monitored for too much rain over the next few weeks, but for now most of the wheat, barley and canola is still rated favorably and rain expected will benefit the planting and emergence of dryland summer crops
  • Western
    Australia is not likely to see much more than a few spotty showers in the far south over the next ten days
  • South
    Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales winter crop conditions remain very good with little change likely
  • Hurricane
    Epsilon has passed to the east of Bermuda and should turn to the northeast away from North America this weekend posing no land impact
  • Typhoon
    Saudel was located in the central South China Sea today and will move westerly through Saturday while slowly weakening
    • Landfall
      is expected in central Vietnam north of Hue late Sunday or early Monday
      • Heavy
        rain will bring on some additional flooding to water-logged areas of central Vietnam
  • Follow
    up rainfall in Vietnam from a tropical wave early next week and another tropical cyclone during mid-week will result in total rainfall of 6.00 to 20.00 inches of rain by the latter part of next week along nearly all of the central Vietnam Coast
    • Damage
      to infrastructure, personal property and agriculture will continue with each of the three systems noted above
  • A
    new tropical cyclone will form east of the Philippines this weekend and move across the heart of the nation Sunday and Monday before moving to Vietnam Tuesday and Wednesday
  • A
    third tropical cyclone may evolve east of the Philippines late next week and into the following weekend that will threaten the nation; the first storm to impact the nation this week was Tropical Storm Saudel
  • South
    Africa will experience showers erratically over the central and eastern parts of the nation during the coming week with some potential for greater rain in the following week
    • Generalized
      rain is needed to support spring and summer planting
      • La
        Nina should help ensure a good rainy season this summer
  • India’s
    monsoon will start withdrawing a little faster over the next several days ending rain and harvest delays in the west-central crop areas
    • Rain
      will fall frequently in far southern India and in the extreme east for much of the coming week to ten days
  • Europe
    will experience increasing precipitation in the west over this coming week while eastern areas are relatively dry biased and a little warmer than usual
    • Winter
      crops are establishing well in much of the continent, despite less than ideal early season planting conditions
  • China
    weather will be almost ideal for winter wheat and rapeseed planting and summer crop harvesting during the next ten days
    • Soil
      moisture will be good for quick winter crop germination and plant emergence
  • Disturbed
    tropical weather in the Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico the remainder of this week will be closely monitored for possible tropical cyclone development over the next week
    • Two
      systems may come out of the region with one moving over western Cuba and then moving to the Bahamas and then farther out to sea in the Atlantic next week
      • A
        second storm system may evolve and move across the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the central Gulf of Mexico where it might merge with a mid-latitude storm over the lower Mississippi River Basin next week
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index fell during the weekend down to +8.18 and the index may begin to rise this weekend
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall over the next two weeks will be erratic, but all areas will be impacted multiple times supporting most crop needs; some flood potentials will gradually rise in localized areas
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be scattered over far southern crop areas during the coming week
    • Net
      drying is expected for many other summer crop areas supporting crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Central
    America will be wetter than usual over the next ten days to two weeks keeping late season crop maturation and harvest progress slow, but the moisture is improving long term water supply.
    • Some
      flooding is possible

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas will benefit from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and Ethiopia rainfall
is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be increasing across North Island and western areas of South Island over the coming week

    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the south

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 23:

  • China
    customs publishes trade data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Unica
    data on Brazil’s cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Sunday,
Oct. 25:

  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data

Monday,
Oct. 26:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Monthly
    MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
  • Malaysian
    Oct. 1-25 palm oil export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Hong Kong, New Zealand

Tuesday,
Oct. 27:

  • Virtual
    Palm Oil Conference, day 1
  • EARNINGS:
    WH Group

Wednesday,
Oct. 28:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Virtual
    Palm Oil Conference, day 2
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Thursday,
Oct. 29:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • EARNINGS:
    ADM
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia

Friday,
Oct. 30:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

58,000
tons at $470.95 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around Apr. 8.

59,000
tons at $441.49 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around May 20.

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat futures

    are higher in large part to fresh import tenders that included the US and lower USD. 
    Egypt is in for wheat. 
  • We
    estimate the initial US winter wheat rating at 48 percent for the combined good and excellent categories, compared to 64 percent last year and 51 percent average. 
  • Argentina’s
    BA Grains Exchange looks for wheat production at 16.8 million tons, down from 17.5 million tons last season.  They were at 21 million tons for their forecast back in May.  The BA Grains Exchange reported 3% of the 2020-21 wheat crop had been harvested on 6.5
    million hectares (16.1 million acres).
  • French
    wheat planting progress was running at 45 percent as of October 19, up from 12 percent previous week and compares to 27 percent year ago.  Barley plantings were 60 percent versus 48 percent year ago. 
  • Egypt
    plans to sow 3.63 million acres of wheat, up slightly from last year. 
  • Ukrainian
    milling wheat prices to a 21-month high of $255 per ton FOB Black Sea, according to APK-Inform. 
  • Russian
    wheat shipments in season that began July 1 totaled 16.4m tons as of Oct.20 the Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products said Thursday on its website, citing inspections before exports.   NOTE: The figure means wheat exports
    totaled about 1.7m tons in the week to Oct. 20, up about 600,000 tons from a week earlier.  Russian exports of all grains have reached 19.5m tons so far this season. (Bloomberg)
  • Pakistan’s
    Federal Committee on Agriculture is aiming for 26.8 million tons of wheat output across 9.2 million planted hectares next year, the food security ministry said Thursday in a statement.  (Bloomberg)
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was up 1.00 at 210.00 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

  • Lowest
    offer for Egypt seeking wheat for Dec 1-20 shipment was $262.97/ton Russian origin. 
  • Taiwan
    bought 88,635 tons of US wheat, various class, for De/Jan shipment. 
  • South
    Korea’s NOFI bought 65,000 tons of US feed wheat at $266.45/ton c&f for arrival in May 2021. 
  • South
    Korea’s MFG bought 65,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat at $266.60/ton c&f for arrival around May 30, 2021. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on October 27, optional origin, for LH December through FH March shipment.
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 28 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Sudan
    seeks 1 million tons of wheat through US assistance.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited:  Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15, 2021 delivery.

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.