PDF attached

 

Morning.

Quiet
start to Friday’s trade except for a rally in wheat amid increase in global import demand.  USD was lower and WTI crude oil higher.  China palm and soybean oil futures were up about 1.6-1.7 percent on Friday.  Palm oil in Malaysian was near unchanged.  China
cash crush margins were largely steady on out calculation.  We heard China bought 4 US soybean cargoes late Thursday out of the PNW and Gulf.  They were inquiring for Q1 Brazil shipment, but no trades were heard of. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

EARLY
MORNING WEATHER UPDATE

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • European
    forecast model greatly increased precipitation in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas for next week
    • The
      increase was overdone and unlikely to verify
  • European
    forecast model increased precipitation in Russia’s Southern Region Oct. 30-Nov 2
    • This
      increase was overdone
    • The
      first week of the outlook remains mostly dry
  • European
    model run is a little wetter in Brazil through Monday, but rain in Parana,  Sao Paulo and neighboring areas is still advertised to be limited thereafter
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive some needed precipitation during the late weekend through early part of next week easing dryness, but follow up moisture will still be needed

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO CONSIDER FOR WEEKEND

  • Dryness
    will continue for much of the next week in Russia’s Southern Region
    • Some
      showers are possible infrequently, but the amount of relief will be restricted
    • Remember
      that a part of this region did get some relief from dryness earlier this week
    • Temperatures
      will remain warmer than usual over the next week to ten days maintaining a favorable environment for winter crop establishment for those areas with topsoil moisture
    • There
      is potential for rain in the Oct. 30-Nov. 3 period, but it will be light
  • Ukraine
    precipitation will be limited through the next ten days, but recent moisture has been helpful for winter crop establishment except in the far east where there is still a pressing need for significant moisture
  • Kazakhstan
    is unlikely to get meaningful moisture in the next ten days, although some sporadic showers may evolve after the end of next week
  • Argentina
    has received beneficial rain this week and more will occur this weekend
    • Rainfall
      Saturday and Sunday will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches with local totals to 3.00 to 4.00 inches favoring the south and east
    • Follow
      up showers will produce 0.15 to 0.70 inch of moisture Tuesday and Wednesday
    • Mostly
      dry thereafter until Nov. 5 when showers develop in the far south and possibly shift to east-central areas Nov. 6-7 (confidence is low on this event)
  • Argentina
    rain Thursday was not very great with amounts to 0.25 inch; however, some rain overnight in northeastern Santa Fe, southern Corrientes and southern Chaco varied from 0.35 to 0.68 inch with one location in southern Corrientes reporting an unconfirmed 3.06 inches
    through dawn
  • Brazil
    will see rain in most of the nation during the coming ten days
    • Interior
      southern areas will receive the lightest amounts and may experience the most aggressive planting, although will have need for more rain in November
    • Center
      west into Minas Gerais and southern Bahia will receive frequent rainfall especially next week and into the first week of November possibly slowing fieldwork at times
      • Rain
        will be heaviest and most frequent from Goias into Minas Gerais where some farming activity could be slowed
  • Brazil
    rainfall Thursday was erratic with northeastern Minas Gerais, central Goias, northwestern Mato Grosso, eastern Santa Catarina and southern Rio Grande do Sul reporting the most significant amounts
    • Moisture
      totals were rarely more than 0.60 inch through dawn today with as much as 1.00 inch in central Goias
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain at various times from Sunday into Tuesday
    • Moisture
      totals will be light in western Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northwestern Texas Panhandle and more significant in other areas