FI Morning Grain Comments 10/22/20

PDF attached

Morning.

Higher
trade in the front month soybean complex.  Corn is mixed and Chicago wheat lower. 
China cash crush margins on our analysis improved from Wednesday. 

Weather
and Crop Progress

WORLD
WEATHER ISSUES FOR TODAY

• U.S.
  Northern Plains and upper Midwest dealing with another snowstorm today
• Accumulations
  through dawn today have range from 1 to 4 inches in northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota with 12 inches unconfirmed at Herreid, South Dakota
• Snowfall
  of 4 to 7 inches has been reported in central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin
• New
  snowfall today will vary from 3 to 9 inches across these same areas causing travel delays, livestock stress and some disruption to commerce
• One
  more snowstorm is expected in the northwestern and central U.S. Plains late Friday through the weekend with snowfall of 2 to 6 inches expected
• Western
  South Dakota, Montana and parts of Wyoming and western Nebraska will get the greatest snowfall
• Lighter
  snow will fall farther south in Kansas, Colorado and the Texas Panhandle with moisture totals of a few hundredths of an inch to 0.25 inch most likely
• Eastern
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will see greater rainfall with 0.20 to 0.75 inch of moisture possible from north-central Texas to eastern wheat areas of Kansas and parts of eastern Nebraska this weekend into early next week
• U.S.
  Hard Red Winter Wheat bottom line is one of partial improvement of wheat establishment in the high Plains region. More precipitation will be needed, but not likely to occur with warmer than usual temperatures expected late next week through the first full
  week of November and little to no rain
• Russia’s
  Southern has seen some partial relief from dryness this week (see our special reported sent earlier this morning)
• Delayed
  data received from Russia overnight has further verified our forecast of earlier this week for a band of rain from Krasnodar to northwestern Kazakhstan Monday and Tuesday
• The
  moisture was welcome, but not great enough for a huge lasting change outside of a small portion of the overall production region
• More
  rain is needed and not likely to occur for the next ten days to nearly two weeks except in the northernmost parts of Russia’s Southern region where some light precipitation is expected.
  
• Eastern
  Australia will be closely monitored for too much rain over the next few weeks, but for now most of the wheat, barley and canola is still rated favorably and rain expected will benefit the planting and emergence of dryland summer crops
• Rain
  in eastern Queensland Wednesday may have disrupted fieldwork, but the moisture was great for sugarcane and eastern cotton areas where planting in dryland fields will get under way soon if it has not already begun
• Western
  Australia is not likely to see much more than a few showers in the far south
• South
  Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales winter crop conditions remain very good with little change likely
• Argentina
  rainfall overnight was greater than expected and continued to benefit winter wheat and future planting of corn, sunseed and soybeans
• Argentina’s
  rainfall this week has already improved soil moisture for many areas and the outlook is for continued improvement with yet another weather system expected this weekend that will follow additional scattered showers today
• Dryness
  is expected in the second week of the outlook, but that will serve as an excellent opportunity for summer crop planting and to support winter wheat in the south
• Brazil
  rainfall will be erratic over the next two weeks benefiting some areas far more than others and a close watch on its distribution is warranted
• All
  of the nation’s corn, soybean, rice, sugarcane, citrus and coffee production areas will get rain at one time or another, but amounts in the interior south will be a little light and may leave a growing need for greater precipitation
• Wheat
  conditions in far southern Brazil are better than they have been in years with little change likely
• Brazil’s
  greatest rainfall is expected in the Oct. 30-Nov. 6 period from Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso
• Bitter
  cold air is still expected in the northern U.S. Plains and a part of Canada’s Prairies over the next several days
  
• Extreme
  lows in the negative and positive single digits Fahrenheit will occur from Montana, Wyoming and the far western parts of the Dakotas northward into the heart of the Canadian Prairies
• Some
  single digit lows will occur into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado
  
• The
  cold and snow that precedes it will stress livestock
• Snow
  will fall in the central Plains Sunday into Tuesday with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches common from Nebraska to eastern Colorado with local totals of 4 to 5 inches probably favoring northeastern Colorado and far southwestern Nebraska, although confidence is
  low
• Montana
  wheat planting and emergence is incomplete and temperatures will be cold enough for a long enough period of time to raise concern about that planting getting completed
• Warming
  is expected late next week through the following weekend
• U.S.
  Midwest harvest delays will occur through mid-week next week due to waves of rain and some snow
• Drier
  weather is expected in the following week to improve harvest progress, although a period of drying will be required after some significant moisture impacts the region
• Snowmelt
  will keep the upper Midwest wet for a longer period of time extending the harvest delays
• West
  Texas cotton and other summer crop harvesting will be delayed by precipitation during the late weekend and early part of next week
• No
  serious impact on fiber quality is expected