FI Morning Grain Comments 10/20/20

PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

US
corn 60 percent and soybeans 75 percent harvested.  US corn conditions unchanged.  US winter wheat 77 planted.

 

US
ag markets are mostly higher led by soybeans amid slower than expected US soybean harvest pace.  Argentina crush workers are on a 24-hour strike. There was a rumor Brazil bought US soybeans, or 2 cargoes were switched internally by a company from US to Brazil. 
Brazil announced yesterday that the tariff free imports outside Mercosur will be extended to January for soybeans and March until corn. 

 

We
heard one China private crusher booked at least one Nov/Dec soybean shipment out of the Gulf and two January shipments out of the PNW.  There was a March soybean shipment that traded hands but unclear with origin. 

 

Decatur,
IL, corn basis was up 4 cents to option December and soybeans up 10 cents to 15 over November.  Argentina dryness and slower than normal soybean planting pace in Brazil potentially affecting second crop corn plantings are supporting US corn futures.  USD was
lower, WTI crude moderately lower as of early this morning.  For wheat, dry weather for the US Great Plains and southern Russia are still a concern.  APK-Inform reported Ukraine wheat export prices hit a 21-month high of $255/ton fob. 

 

Offshore
values are leading SBO 29 points higher and meal $1.00 lower. 

 

Malaysian
palm futures were up just over 3 percent.  Cash palm rose $17.00/ton.  AmSpec palm exports for the October 1-20 period was 1.085 million tons versus 1.040 million tons same period in September.  ITS reported a 4 percent increase to 1.077 million tons from
1.035 million previous period last month. 

 

South
Korea’s MFG bought 130,000 tons of feed wheat from the US at $266.84/ton and $268.92/ton for LH March and April shipment.  Thailand seeks 192,000 tons of feed wheat and 120,000 tons of feed barley, optional origin, for between Dec 2020 and March 2021 shipment. 
Japan seeks 80,526 tons of food wheat later this week including 29,217 tons from the US and 51,309 tons from Canada.  Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of barley. They saw 2 offers.  Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of Black Sea milling wheat on Oct 21, valid until Oct
22 for Nov and/or Dec shipment.  Sudan seeks 1 million tons of wheat through US assistance.  Algeria bought about 30,000 tons of corn at about $239/ton c&f from EU or Black Sea region for shipment by November 20. 

 

Egypt
said they have more than 1 million tons of sugar stocks to last over four months. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Oct. 20:

• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-20 palm oil export data
• Virtual
  international palm oil sustainability conference, Q&A Session
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
Oct. 21:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

Thursday,
Oct. 22:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• U.S.
  cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry

Friday,
Oct. 23:

• China
  customs publishes trade data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Unica
  data on Brazil’s cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
239,688                 versus   400000-600000  range

Corn                     
911,012                 versus   650000-900000  range

Soybeans           
2,173,521             versus   1200000-2200000             range

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures are higher on a lower USD, higher soybeans and steady US export demand. 
  
• CBOT
  corn OI was up 22,795 contracts. 
• Argentina
  dryness and slower than normal soybean planting pace in Brazil potentially affecting second crop corn plantings are supporting US corn futures. 
  
• USD
  was lower, crude moderately lower as of early this morning. 
• US
  corn harvest progress was up 19 points to 60 percent complete, 3 points above a trade average and compares to 28 percent year ago and 43 average.
  
• USDA
  US corn export inspections as of October 15, 2020 were 911,012 tons, above a range of trade expectations, above 838,849 tons previous week and compares to 581,237 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 359,837 tons, Mexico for 185,154 tons,
  and Japan for 165,882 tons.
• Germany
  ASF: 1 new case; 71 cases since September 10 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• USDA
  announced private exporters sold:

–Export
sales of 345,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 123,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

• Iran
  opened a new tender for 200,000 tons of barley, set to close October 21. 

 

Soybean
complex.  

• US
  ag markets are mostly higher led by soybeans amid slower than expected US soybean harvest pace. 
  
• The
  soybean complex is higher.  Traders are watching the bull spreads as Brazil could come in anytime soon and buy US soybeans.  So far, we are getting a 50/50 feedback this will happen, or above 200,000 ton amount we have been asking around. 
  
• There
  was a rumor Brazil bought US soybeans, or 2 cargoes were switched internally by a company from US to Brazil.  Brazil announced yesterday that the tariff free imports outside Mercosur will be extended to January for soybeans and March until corn. 
  
• We
  heard one China private crusher booked at least one Nov/Dec soybean shipment out of the Gulf and two January shipments out of the PNW.  There was a March soybean shipment that traded hands but unclear with origin. 
  

• Decatur,
  IL, corn basis was up 4 cents to option December and soybeans up 10 cents to 15 over November. 
  
• US
  soybean harvest progress fell short of trade expectations by 4 points by advancing 14 points to 75 percent complete, well above 40 percent year ago and 58 percent average. 
  
• Argentina
  soybean crush workers went on a 24-hour strike starting late Monday. 

• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 29 higher and meal $1.00 lower. 
  
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were near unchanged, rapeseed oil down 24, and Rotterdam meal 4-10 euros higher from this time previous session. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins were 85 cents on out our calculation (vs. 97 from previous session) compared to 88 last week and 125 year ago. 
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil  futures were up just over 3 percent.  Cash palm rose $17.00/ton. 
  
• AmSpec
  palm exports for the October 1-20 period was 1.085 million tons versus 1.040 million tons same period in September.  ITS reported a 4 percent increase to 1.077 million tons from 1.035 million previous period last month. 
  
• 

• USDA
  US soybean export inspections as of October 15, 2020 were 2,173,521 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 2,396,908 tons previous week and compares to 1,330,909 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 1,743,108 tons, Egypt for 149,792
  tons, and Spain for 51,361 tons.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private porters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000  tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020-21 marketing year. 
  
• Syria
  seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 
  

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is higher on a lower USD and ongoing dryness for the Black Sea region and US Great Plains.  Global cash prices and strong global export developments are supporting prices. 
  
• APK-Inform
  reported Ukraine wheat export prices hit a 21-month high of $255/ton fob. 
  
• US
  winter wheat planting progress is much more far advanced from where we would think it would be a couple weeks ago.  It did fall short of trade expectations by 4 points, advancing 9 points to 77 percent complete and compares to 74 year ago and 72 percent average. 
  

• Paris
  (Matif) December wheat was unchanged at 211.75 euros.

• USDA
  US all-wheat export inspections as of October 15, 2020 were 239,688 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 514,649 tons previous week and compares to 580,680 tons year ago. Major countries included Indonesia for 54,606 tons, Japan for 32,967 tons,
  and Venezuela for 25,050 tons.
• Look
  for Egypt to soon tender for wheat. 

 

Export
Developments.

• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 130,000 tons of feed wheat from the US at $266.84/ton and $268.92/ton for LH March and April shipment. 
  
• Thailand
  seeks 192,000 tons of feed wheat and 120,000 tons of feed barley, optional origin, for between Dec 2020 and March 2021 shipment. 
  
• Japan
  seeks 80,526 tons of food wheat later this week including 29,217 tons from the US and 51,309 tons from Canada. 
  
• Jordan
  passed on 120,000 tons of barley. They saw 2 offers. 
• Sudan
  seeks 1 million tons of wheat through US assistance.  Algeria bought about 30,000 tons of corn at about $239/ton c&f from EU or Black Sea region for shipment by November 20. 
  

• Algeria
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on October 21, valid until October 22 for November and/or December shipment, depending on origin. 
  

• Jordan
  issued a new tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close October 21. 
• Japan
  seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 21 for arrival by February 25. 
  
• Turkey
  seeks 175,000 tons of wheat on October 22 for shipment between November 9 and November 24. 
  

 

Rice/Other

• Egypt
  said they have more than 1 million tons of sugar stocks to last over four months. 
  

·        
Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15, 2021 delivery.