PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Higher
trade led by investment fund buying and sharply lower USD .

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

NORTH
AMERICA

  • Today’s
    forecast models have suggested some precipitation may fall in a part of the southwestern U.S. Plains late this week and especially early next week
    • World
      Weather, Inc. believes the precipitation will prove to be a general disappointment with only a few locations being impacted and resulting rainfall will be well below that which is needed for a lasting improvement in soil moisture and wheat establishment potential
      in unirrigated areas

 

  • Precipitation
    is expected to occur frequently across the northern Plains this week improving topsoil moisture; however, temperatures will be so cold that soil temperatures may drop below the minimum threshold for wheat establishment
    • Snowfall
      will occur before frost gets into the ground which suggests when snowmelt takes place the moisture will seep into the ground to improve topsoil moisture for use in the spring

 

  • Warming
    in the northern Plains is advertised for late next week which should melt this week’s snowfall and improve topsoil moisture as snow melts
    • Some
      fieldwork will resume with late season planting possible as the warming evolves

 

  • Frequent
    precipitation is still advertised for the Midwest over the next ten days
    • Today’s
      overnight model runs reduced some of the moisture advertised for the northern Midwest and this change was needed
    • Plenty
      of moisture is still advertised for the lower Midwest where improvement in the low soil moisture situation that has been prevailing in soft wheat areas of the lower Midwest

 

  • Southeastern
    states will receive limited rainfall this week while the Delta will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine
    • Next
      week will trend a little wetter briefly in both regions and then back to a drier regime

 

  • Tropical
    Depression Twenty Seven in the Atlantic Ocean is not expected to threaten the United States, but it will impact Bermuda as a hurricane late this week and into the weekend

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Not
    much change occurred overnight
    • Significant
      rain has begun to fall in Buenos Aires and far southern Cordoba with widespread rain overnight
    • Rain
      will continue into Tuesday, but it will not get very far to the north in Argentina
    • Central
      Cordoba to Entre Rios and Buenos Aires will be wettest
    • Some
      showers will linger in central Argentina during mid-week and then a new wave of rain will impact the heart of the nation Friday into the weekend further improving topsoil moisture for better winter crop development and spring planting
    • One
      more wave of showers will occur early next week across central and eastern Argentina before a period of drying evolves
  • Rain
    was advertised to return Oct. 30-Nov. 1 in portions of Argentina
    • Confidence
      in this event is low
    • Net
      drying resumes immediately after this event

 

Overall,
Argentina has an excellent opportunity for improved planting
, germination and emergence conditions during the next ten days in key summer coarse grain and oilseed production areas. Some cotton areas in the north will also benefit from the moisture along
with some rice in the east. Winter crop conditions will also improve

 

BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    general theme changes were noted from Sunday or that of late last week
    • Some
      rain will fall in a part of Russia’s Southern Region today from Krasnodar to the northwestern border region of Kazakhstan
      • 0.20
        to 0.80 inch of moisture is expected with local totals to 1.25 inches
    • A
      few other light showers may occur farther north in Russia’s Southern Region late this weekend, but resulting rainfall will be under 0.25 inch leaving a big need for more moisture
  • Precipitation
    will be most significant throughout the coming ten days in northern Russia, the Baltic States and northern Belarus

 

Improvement
is expected to a small part of Russia’s Southern Region, but not much change will occur in eastern Ukraine or Kazakhstan, despite a few light showers briefly later this weekend

 

CHINA

  • No
    general theme changes were noted overnight
    • A
      favorable mix of sunshine and showers will occur over the next two weeks allowing fieldwork of all kinds to advance