PDF attached includes updated US corn and wheat balances

 

Higher
close in soybeans, nearly meal and sharply higher trade in soybean oil.  Corn closed higher and pulled Chicago and KC wheat along with it.  Nearby Mn finished lower.  Firm US cash corn and meal basis was noted.  Talk of La Nina that could threat SA and US
southern Great Plains rainfall prospects was noted.  USDA export inspections for corn and soybeans were excellent, but wheat fell well below expectations. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • Argentina
    was dry during the weekend and will remain that way through Thursday
    • Rain
      will develop late Thursday night and Friday before ending in the northeast Saturday
      • Moisture
        totals will vary from 0.05 to 0.75 inch with a few amounts in the east over 1.00 inch
    • Another
      period of dry weather will occur Sunday through Thursday, October 28 is expected before rain evolves once again
    • Showers
      are possible October 29-November 1 with good coverage, but confidence is a little low because of the amount of time between now and then in which weather patterns can change3
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias, especially next week
    • Early
      corn, sunseed, rice and cotton planting will advance most favorably in areas that received rain recently. Crop emergence and establishment may be slow in areas that have low soil moisture which includes parts of the west and north. Winter wheat development
      should advance relatively well as long as the rain that falls this week and next week is sufficient counter evaporative moisture losses during the drier days.
  • Brazil
    rainfall during the weekend was greatest in parts of center west through interior southern and center south Brazil
    • Amounts
      varied greatly with 1.00 to 2.00 inches in eastern Bolivia, east-central Paraguay, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, northwestern Parana and southeastern Santa Catarina.
      • Rainfall
        elsewhere in the described region varied up to 1.10 inches
    • Dry
      biased conditions prevailed through Sunday morning in Goias, eastern Mato Grosso , northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Bahia
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable
  • Brazil
    weather over the next two weeks will be well mixed for many areas, but far southern parts of the nation may experience net drying and should be closely monitored.
    • No
      critically dry weather is expected, but some areas could experience a net loss in soil moisture that might eventually raise the potential for crop stress in November.
    • Rain
      will fall most frequently and significantly in Minas Gerais during the next ten days, but sufficient rain will also occur in surrounding areas to support center west and the remainder of center south crop development in a favorable manner
    • Most
      of Brazil’s crop areas will either have sufficient soil moisture or well-timed rainfall to support soybean, corn, rice, cotton and other summer crop planting. Sufficient moisture will also fall to support coffee, citrus and sugarcane development. Less frequent
      rain in southern parts of wheat country
  • U.S.
    harvest weather improved during the weekend with precipitation absent in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt and ended in the eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
    • Moisture
      totals for the Friday through Sunday were greatest in the eastern Midwest, Tennessee River Basin and Delta where rainfall varied from 0.20 to 0.60 inch with a few amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
      • Northwestern
        and southern Ohio and northeastern Kentucky were wettest
    • Highest
      temperatures were in the 60s and 70s Fahrenheit
    • Lowest
      temperatures were in the 20s and 30s in the west-central high Plains region and throughout the Rocky Mountain region and Great Basin while 30s and 40s occurred in the northern Plains and upper Midwest
  • Frost
    and a few light freezes occurred in West Texas, but the cold may have been welcome for maturing crops by speeding along leaf defoliation
    • Frost
      and freezes were not threatening to very many immature crops and warming was expected this week
  • U.S.
    weather this week…..
    • Rain
      will be limited to Tuesday into Thursday across the Plains and Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
      • Resulting
        amounts will be very light ranging from 0.10 to 0.35 inch except from South Dakota into the Great Lakes region where a few amounts of 0.35 to 1.00 inch is possible
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable to slightly warmer than usual with the Plains and interior western states warmest
    • Favorable
      field progress will advance around this week’s precipitation
      • Both
        the planting of winter crops and the harvest of summer grain and oilseeds will advance favorably during the week
      • Cotton
        maturation and harvest progress is also expected along with other crops
  • U.S.
    weather next week will be more active in with at least one large storm system bringing precipitation to the northern and eastern Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
    • Rainfall
      will be sufficient to disrupt farming activity and to bolster topsoil moisture for a short period of time
    • Rain
      is not likely to be significant in the west-central or southwestern Plains
    • Waves
      of rain will impact the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountain region
    • Rain
      and mountain snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada
    • A
      minor disturbance may produce a few showers this weekend and a second large storm system is possible in the eastern Midwest late next week after the first large system occurs in the upper Midwest and western Corn Belt
    • Temperatures
      will turn colder in the western states and be warmer than usual in the central and eastern states
    • Farming
      activity will be slowed for a little while next week because of rain, but the delays are not expected to be problematic and the moisture will be good for winter crop establishment
  • Another
    wave of rain and snow will move through eastern Canada’s Prairies next week while this week will be dry biased
    • Harvesting
      of this year’s crops is virtually complete, but the rain is needed to restore soil moisture after a multi-year drought seriously reduced production in 2021
      • The
        moisture must occur to improve spring planting conditions in 2022; however, central parts of the Prairies (southern and eastern Alberta and central through western Saskatchewan) are unlikely to get much meaningful moisture
  • South
    Africa weekend rain was limited to parts of Natal and the far southwestern coastal areas
    • Net
      drying was good for fieldwork, although rain was needed in many areas to supporting spring planting and late season winter crop development
  • South
    Africa will receive periodic rainfall during the coming week and that will bolster soil moisture for improved conditions for late season wheat development and early planting of summer crops
    • Showers
      through Wednesday will impact half of the crop region, but rain amounts will not be more than 0.50 inch
    • Greater
      rain is expected Thursday through and Friday with coverage of 75% from interior parts of Northern Cape and Eastern Cape through Mpumalanga, Natal and southwestern Limpopo
    • Alternating
      periods of rain and sunshine are expected in the coming weekend and next week further supporting summer crop planting and late season winter crop development
  • China
    rainfall Friday and Saturday was greatest from the Yangtze River Basin southward to Yunnan, Guangxi and the southern coastal provinces
    • Amounts
      varied up to 0.79 inch most often with locally greater rainfall in southwestern Hunan where 2.83 inches resulted
      • Dry
        conditions occurred in the North China Plain and northeastern provinces
    • Temperatures
      have been cooler than usual recently and that may continue this week
  • China
    weather over the next ten days will be driest in the northeastern provinces and in the North China Plain as well as lower portions of the Yellow River Basin
    • Rain
      is likely in most other areas at one time or another and in amounts sufficient to support winter crop planting and establishment
      • Some
        delay to farming activity will occur, but the wettest conditions will be in the interior southeastern provinces allowing fieldwork to advance around the precipitation in other areas
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual this week and then warmer next week
  • Central
    Vietnam received heavy rainfall during the weekend
    • Amounts
      through dawn today varied up to 18.15 inches near Hue
      • Most
        of the greatest rain fell from Nha Trang northward to just south of Vinh.
      • The
        heaviest rain will shift farther to the north and end today
    • Some
      serious flooding may be occurring in parts of the region and drier weather is needed to protect personal property and some agriculture
    • Another
      round of excessive coastal flooding is expected to begin Thursday and last into early next week
  • Rain
    will fall frequently in Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines through the next ten to 12 days maintaining a good outlook for palm oil, coconut, corn, rice, sugarcane, citrus and many other crops
  • Heavy
    rain evolved in India during the week with three areas impacted most significantly
    • The
      first was from coastal Odisha into Bangladesh where amounts ranged up to 3.25 inches, but much more was expected today and Tuesday
    • Rain
      also fell from western and northern Madhya Pradesh to Haryana and northern Uttar Pradesh as well as western Nepal and this rain will continue today
      • Rainfall
        of 1.50 to nearly 4.00 inches occurred in these areas through dawn today
    • Rainfall
      in northern India will range from 2.00 to 5.00 inches today favoring Nepal and Uttaranchal
    • Rainfall
      of 2.00 to 6.00 inches will also impact Bangladesh and immediate neighboring areas today and Tuesday
    • Far
      southern India was the third area of heavy rain during the weekend, but this region will continue receive waves of rain throughout this week resulting in 2.00 to 6.00 inches of additional moisture
    • Drier
      weather will follow Friday through next week
  • Most
    other areas in India will experience a good mix of weather during the next two weeks with southern areas wettest and favorable drying conditions likely in the central and northwest
  • Western
    Australia will receive some important rainfall today and Tuesday easing recent dryness and supporting winter crop development
    • Yield
      potentials will remain very high
    • Drier
      weather will follow later this week into the weekend
    • A
      few more showers may occur early next week
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Other
    areas in Australia are expecting to see a few showers and thunderstorms along with many days of drying which should be very good for reproducing and filling winter crops and for early season harvest progress
    • Temperatures
      will trend warmer next week
  • Western
    portions of the CIS will see a boost in precipitation this week in the north and some needed moisture “may” evolve next week from eastern Ukraine into the middle Volga River Basin
    • Confidence
      in the moisture boost for eastern Ukraine and the middle Volga Basin next week is fair, but not high and the potential event will be closely monitored
    • Winter
      crop planting should be complete or nearly complete
      • Recent
        temperatures have been pushing many crops into semi-dormancy
    • Temperatures
      in the coming week to ten days will be near to above normal which might support a little more development in parts of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region
  • Southeastern
    Europe’s heavy rain event finally has ended and now some gradual drying will occur that should eventually help get farmers back into the fields
  • Other
    areas in Europe will experience a favorable mix of weather during the next ten days
    • Fieldwork
      should advance well around the precipitation
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above normal
  • North
    Africa will be mostly dry this week, but rain will develop next week in Algeria
  • There
    were no tropical cyclones around the world today and none was expected for a while
  • Mexico
    rainfall will be erratic over the next week with pockets of the nation a little wetter biased while other areas are a little drier biased
    • Southern
      areas will be wetter biased
  • Central
    America rainfall will be below average this week except in Costa Rica, Panama and El Salvador where rainfall will be near to above normal
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop harvesting will advance swiftly as dry and warm conditions prevail
  • Central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall during the next ten days maintaining good coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice, cotton and other crop conditions
    • Drier
      weather will soon be needed in some cotton areas