FI Morning Grain Comments 10/09/20

Oct 9, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

USDA
report due out later.  USD was 25 lower and WTI crude 31 lower. US agriculture futures are higher this morning on strength in China markets after a week long holiday and talk of Chinese demand for corn, corn byproducts and soybeans.  Offshore values are suggesting
a higher trade for CBOT soybean meal and soybean oil.  Malaysian palm futures were up nearly 8 percent this week.  Overnight tenders include Pakistan in for 300,000 tons of wheat on October 14 for arrival by end of January.  China in their monthly S&D update
raised their corn import forecast by 2.0 million tons for 2020-21 to 7.0 million.  We think that will be higher. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

NORTH
AMERICA

  • No
    significant changes were noted to the outlook overnight
    • Hurricane
      Delta will come ashore into Louisiana as expected with the remnants of the system moving through the heart of the lower Mississippi River Valley and then from Tennessee to the middle Atlantic Coast states over the weekend and into Monday
    • A
      mid-latitude frontal system will move across the central and eastern states Sunday into Tuesday generating a little rain in the northern Midwest
    • Cooling
      will follow the early week frontal system with a couple of reinforcing shots of cool air expected in the following week bringing a few sporadic showers with each occurrence
  • Most
    of hard red winter wheat country will remain dry or nearly dry
  • Northwestern
    U.S. Plains are not likely to see much moisture
  • Some
    rain will fall in the Pacific Northwest, but will favor the mountains and not the valleys

The
00z GFS model run was too wet in the central and southern Plains. The drier 06z and especially the European model runs are preferred.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • No
    theme changes were noted overnight
  • GFS
    model outlook has not changed greatly for center west into center south Brazil for next week and the following weekend with rain expected in many areas
  • Restricted
    rainfall occurs in Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and western Sao Paulo through October 19
  • Rain
    this weekend will occur mostly from eastern Santa Catarina to Rio de Janeiro and southeastern Minas Gerais
  • Far
    southern Brazil is still advertised to see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days to two weeks favoring crops and fieldwork
  • No
    changes were noted in Argentina for the first 8-9 days of the outlook with southern Buenos Aires most of the nation’s significant rain – most of which occurs Saturday into Sunday of this week
  • Argentina
    rainfall was still advertised to increase Oct. 18-21, but the 06z GFS was much too wet suggesting a widespread general soaking of rain
    • However,
      some increase in rainfall is expected during this period of time, but it is too far out in time to get specific and have high confidence

The
generalities of the South America outlook have not changed much today relative to the previous model run or the overall outlook suggested Tuesday. Argentina is not likely to see much rain until October 18 except in Buenos Aires where some rain will fall this
weekend. The potential for at least some dryness relief is improving for the Oct. 18-21 period, but confidence in its significance is still low. In Brazil, a period of beneficial moisture will impact center west and center south crop areas next week and the
following weekend; although portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and western and northern Parana as well as western Sao Paulo may not get much rain and will need more soon.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • Some
    additional rain fell in western Ukraine overnight with amounts to 1.14 inches, but this moisture did not reach into eastern areas
  • No
    significant theme changes occurred overnight, although World Weather, Inc. still believes there is some “potential” for one of the many weather disturbances in Europe to spin out into some of the drier areas of eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and
    neighboring areas during the coming week to ten days
    • If
      this occurs it would not be a general soaking and certainly would not be signaling the start of a rainier weather pattern
    • A
      trough of low pressure in Europe that has been drifting east recently will eventually retrograde back to the west ending this “potential” for rainfall in the drier areas of the western CIS and once the retrograding is complete Russia’s Southern Region, eastern
      Ukraine and Kazakhstan crop areas will be right back into the dry and warm bias for a while longer

CHINA