FI Morning Grain Comments 10/08/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Higher
trade after China resumed trading after a one-week holiday.  We are hearing there is Chinese interest for soybeans.  Global vegetable oil markets have been on fire this week.  Rapeseed futures hit a contract high overnight.  China soybeans
rallied 3.4%.  Malaysian palm futures settled at 4,966 ringgit; 117 points higher for the day. The December palm contract was up 10 percent this week. CBOT grains are higher in part to strength in soybeans. Global wheat demand is steady. Wet weather in northern
China is delaying corn harvest progress. France’s corn harvest is way behind normal.  US RINs have been firming recently. Argentina’s markets are closed Friday and Monday for local holidays. 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 8, 2021

• Rain
  is expected to continue expanding across Brazil during the next couple of weeks.
  
• The
  moisture will be most significant from Paraguay and Parana to Minas Gerais initially and the region will be plenty wet if not a little too wet at times.
  
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane will share in the moisture along with grains and coffee flowering will expand.
  
• U.S.
  weather is expected to be wet biased in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska during the coming week with a small storm system expected this weekend in northern parts of that region and a larger storm expected during the middle part of next
  week.
• Some
  heavy rain is expected in the upper Midwest. 
• West
  Texas cotton areas will experience relatively good weather for the next couple of weeks
  
• The
  U.S. southeastern states will finally start drying out after a very rainy period this week.
  
• Some
  of the north-central U.S. rain will also impact Manitoba and far eastern Saskatchewan Canada during the coming week
• Drought
  will be eased
• No
  relief from dryness is expected in the remainder of Saskatchewan, southern or eastern Alberta or the northwestern U.S. Plains
• In
  Australia, rain is expected in the east during the coming week
• Argentina
  will continue struggling for greater rainfall.
• Northern
  China will begin drying out
• India’s
  greatest rain will be in the south.
• Recent
  rain in southeastern Europe improved soil moisture and winter crop planting potentials from Italy into the western Balkan Countries.
  
• Rain
  will return to western Ukraine, far western Russia, Belarus and the Baltic States next week
  
• Tropical
  Storm Lionrock is expected to impact southern China and northern Vietnam. 
• A
  new tropical cyclone will form in the Philippines Sea this weekend and move toward Taiwan and the southeastern provinces of China
• Xinjiang,
  China will warm up and experience less rain in the next week to ten days, although some showers will still occur for a little while

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 8:

• Labor
  Department’s September jobs report
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans, and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
Oct. 11:

• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data for September stockpiles, production and exports, 12:30pm Kuala Lumpur time
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-10 palm oil exports
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina, Canada

Tuesday,
Oct. 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, noon
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• AHDB
  grain market outlook conference
• French
  agriculture ministry’s crop production estimate
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam
  customs to release September commodity trade data
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Oct. 13:

• China’s
  first batch of September trade data, including imports of soybeans, meat and edible oils
• New
  Zealand food prices
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains report
• European
  cocoa grindings
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar output data (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Thursday,
Oct. 14:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• Suedzucker
  half-year earnings
• Agrana
  half-year earnings
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Friday,
Oct. 15:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Sep: 194K (est 500K; prevR 366K; prev 235K)

US
Unemployment Rate Sep: 4.8% (est 5.1%; prev 5.2%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Sep: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prevR 0.4%; prev 0.6%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Sep: 4.6% (est 4.6%; prevR 4.0%; prev 4.3%)

US
Change In Private Payrolls Sep: 317K (est 450K; prevR 332K; prev 243K)

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Sep: 26K (est 25K; prevR 31K; prev 37K)

US
Average Weekly Hours All Employees Sep: 34.8 (est 34.7; prev 34.7)

US
Labour Force Participation Rate Sep: 61.6% (est 61.8%; prev 61.7%)

US
Underemployment Rate Sep: 8.5% (prev 8.8%)

Canadian
Net Change In Employment Sep: 157.1K (est 60.0K; prev 90.2K)

Canadian
Full Time Employment Change Sep: 193.6K (prev 68.5K)

Canadian
Part Time Employment Change Sep: -36.5K (prev 21.7K)

Canadian
Unemployment Rate Sep: 6.9% (est 6.9%; prev 7.1%)

Canadian
Hourly Wages Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Sep: 1.7% (est 1.8%; prev 1.2%)

Canadian
Participation Rate Sep: 65.5% (est 65.2%; prev 65.1%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is
higher on wet weather across China’s northern corn belt, slow French corn harvest pace, strength in soybeans and lower USD. 

·        
Oats made a fresh new lifetime high overnight.  

·        
FranceAgriMer estimated 7% of French corn crop had been harvested by Oct. 4, up  from 2% a week earlier and well below 47% progress a year ago. 

·        
China harvesting across the northern corn production areas have seen heavy rains delaying harvesting progress.  China still looks for a large corn crop.  The rains were so heavy that some producers in Shanxi province were pumping
water out of flooded fields. 

·        
The US WCB could see heavy rains next week delaying harvesting. 

·        
US RINs have been firming recently.

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of feed corn on October 14 for November 14 through December 6 shipment. 
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Overnight CBOT soybeans rallied after China trading resumed last night after a one-week holiday.  China soybeans rallied 3.4%.  We are hearing there is Chinese interest in soybeans.  Soybean oil and meal are higher. 

·        
USD is 18 lower and WTI up about 87 cents. 

·        
November Paris rapeseed futures hit another contract high and is currently up 3.50 at 679.50 euros. 

·        
Global vegetable oils remain on fire.  Malaysian palm futures settled at 4,966 ringgit; 117 points higher for the day. The December palm contract was up 10 percent this week. Cash palm was up $25/ton. 

·        
GAPKI reported Indonesia August palm oil exports, including refined products, were up 59% year on year to 4.27 million tons. India and China demand is very good.  Indonesia crude palm production was 4.56 million tons in August
and stocks were 3.43 million tons.

·        
Rotterdam rapeseed oil hit new highs (cash) this week.  European cash vegetable oils were up 30-80 euros from this time yesterday morning and meal unchanged to higher.  

·        
Argentina’s markets are closed Friday and Monday for local holidays. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 20 points higher (168 higher) and meal $8.40/short ton higher ($10 for the week to date).  

·        
China cash crush margins were last 187 cents/bu on our analysis versus 176 cents late last week and 88 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is higher on a lower USD and strength in outside related commodity markets. 

·        
December Paris wheat was 1.75 euros higher at 271 euros a ton.

·        
Ukraine’s 2021 grain harvest was 70 percent complete, or 49.4 million tons, including 32.3 million tons of wheat, 9.6 million barley and 4.2 million tons of corn.

·        
The US Great Plains will be mostly dry through Sunday then rain develops across OK, KS, and northern TX on Monday. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
The Philippines bought at least 56,000 tons (224k sought) of feed wheat at $365/ton
for
shipment between December 2021 and March 2022. 

·        
Turkey bought 310,000 tons of feed barley for November shipment at between $310 and $319.90/ton. 

·        
Japan bought 130,963 tons of food wheat.  Original details below. 

·        
The UN seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 8 for Ethiopia for delivery 90 days after contract signing.

·        
Jordan issued a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close October 13. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 13 for arrival by February 24.

·        
Japan seeks 130,963 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia for December loading. 

 

·        
Pakistan seeks 90,000 tons of optional origin wheat on October 13.  They already bought 550k and 575k since September 23. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
China To Sell Cotton From State Reserves From October 8

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment. 

·        
(Bloomberg) — U.S. 2021-22 cotton ending stocks seen at 3.44m bales, 264,000 bales below USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates
  range from 3.16m to 3.75m bales
• Global
  ending stocks seen 181,000 bales lower at 86.5m bales