FI Morning Grain Comments 10/08/20

Oct 8, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

USDA
export sales were good for corn and soybeans.  Conab surprised the trade by reporting a large soybean production and much smaller than expected corn output.   Soybeans are higher on follow through buying in the front month contracts on spot export demand. 
WTI crude is higher and USD slightly higher.  Malaysian palm oil was up 18 points (4th consecutive day) and cash up $0.50/ton.  CBOT soybean oil was seeing light pressure early on sharply higher soybean meal.  South Korea’s MFG bought 60,000 tons
of soybean meal at $449.50/ton C&F for Nov 18-Dec 18 shipment.  China is back from holiday Friday.  Corn is higher on expectations for China to eventually shift US buying focus from soybeans over to corn. South Korea’s KFA bought 131,000 tons of corn at $242.79/ton
c&f from South America for Dec/Jan shipment.  Wheat futures are higher on ongoing technical buying from the same old news of world weather problems.  Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of wheat on October 14.  Turkey’s import tender for 135,000 tons of wheat
may close today.  Japan bought 118,428 tons of food wheat.  Germany discovered three more ASF cases, and one German meat packing company was told to shutdown from COVID-19 cases (in Soegel).  UK sees their rapeseed crop at 1.07 million tons, down 39 percent. 
UN food price index increased 5 percent from the previous year for the month of September to 97.9 points and up 2.1% from a revised 95.9 in August. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales were very good for soybeans, substandard for meal and oil, good for corn and good for wheat.  China took 1.538MMT of soybeans, but that included 449,000 switched from unknown destinations.  Mexico and Egypt were good buyers of soybeans.  Corn
export sales of 1.226MMT included Japan and Mexico as the largest buyers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
initial Jobless Claims: 840K (est 820K, prev 837K)