FI Morning Grain Comments 10/08/20

Oct 8, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

USDA
export sales were good for corn and soybeans.  Conab surprised the trade by reporting a large soybean production and much smaller than expected corn output.   Soybeans are higher on follow through buying in the front month contracts on spot export demand. 
WTI crude is higher and USD slightly higher.  Malaysian palm oil was up 18 points (4th consecutive day) and cash up $0.50/ton.  CBOT soybean oil was seeing light pressure early on sharply higher soybean meal.  South Korea’s MFG bought 60,000 tons
of soybean meal at $449.50/ton C&F for Nov 18-Dec 18 shipment.  China is back from holiday Friday.  Corn is higher on expectations for China to eventually shift US buying focus from soybeans over to corn. South Korea’s KFA bought 131,000 tons of corn at $242.79/ton
c&f from South America for Dec/Jan shipment.  Wheat futures are higher on ongoing technical buying from the same old news of world weather problems.  Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of wheat on October 14.  Turkey’s import tender for 135,000 tons of wheat
may close today.  Japan bought 118,428 tons of food wheat.  Germany discovered three more ASF cases, and one German meat packing company was told to shutdown from COVID-19 cases (in Soegel).  UK sees their rapeseed crop at 1.07 million tons, down 39 percent. 
UN food price index increased 5 percent from the previous year for the month of September to 97.9 points and up 2.1% from a revised 95.9 in August. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales were very good for soybeans, substandard for meal and oil, good for corn and good for wheat.  China took 1.538MMT of soybeans, but that included 449,000 switched from unknown destinations.  Mexico and Egypt were good buyers of soybeans.  Corn
export sales of 1.226MMT included Japan and Mexico as the largest buyers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
initial Jobless Claims: 840K (est 820K, prev 837K)

 

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • South
    Korea’s KFA bought 131,000 tons of corn at $242.79/ton c&f from South America for Dec/Jan shipment. 

 

China
feedgrains update.  The USDA Attaché sees 2020-21 China corn production at a low 250 million tons, well below 260 million tons for USDA’s official forecast and below 260.77 million tons in 2019-20.  On the demand side, they see corn for feed at 190 million
tons, up from 187 million in 2019-20 and 184 million previous season. 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_09-27-2019

 

Soybean
complex.  

  • Conab
    reported a larger than expected initial Brazil soybean production of 133.7 million tons, 1.5 million above a Bloomberg trade average and 8.8 million tons above 2019-20.  This may promote additional bull spreading in soybeans. 

  • MPOB
    report will be out October 12.  Traders are looking for Sep MPOB palm production to increase 3.1% from Aug.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

 

 

Wheat

  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 1.25 higher at 201.75 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    bought food wheat, 118,000 tons, including 61,985 from the US, 25,790 tons from Canada and 30,653 ton from Australia. 
  • Offers
    low as $255/ton: Turkey seeks 135,000 tons of 12.5% and 13.5% wheat on October 9 for oct 16 and Nov 2 shipment. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 14, optional origin, for Jan -late Feb shipment.
  • Ethiopia
    seeks 400,000 tons of wheat by October 13.
  • (new
    9/15) Ethiopia seeks about 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 15.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15 2021 delivery.

·        
(Bloomberg) — U.S. 2020-21 cotton ending stocks seen at 6.79m bales, 411,000 less than USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

o  
U.S. production seen at 16.74m bales vs 17.06m in September

o  
Global ending stocks seen 103,000 bales lower at 103.74m

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/1/2020      

                




























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

 WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

WHEAT

THOUSAND METRIC TONS      

   HRW    

95.8

1,512.5

1,323.2

216.5

3,874.7

3,707.2

0.0

10.9

   SRW    

36.3

314.3

588.6

43.0

849.5

1,105.1

37.4

40.0

   HRS     

214.6

1,667.4

1,302.2

257.0

2,602.7

2,326.1

0.0

5.0

   WHITE   

174.4

1,315.8

1,081.9

163.2

1,842.2

1,496.5

0.0

0.0

   DURUM  

9.5

220.3

204.5

23.0

321.6

291.3

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

530.6

5,030.1

4,500.4

702.7

9,490.7

8,926.2

37.4

55.9

BARLEY

0.0

33.3

40.7

0.2

8.7

16.8

0.0

0.0

CORN

1,225.7

22,170.0

7,914.8

934.8

3,677.8

2,081.2

0.0

206.0

SORGHUM

132.4

2,542.4

105.2

157.6

392.7

43.7

0.0

136.0

SOYBEANS

2,590.7

33,970.0

12,359.2

2,068.6

6,749.7

3,892.3

0.0

60.0

SOY MEAL

271.7

3,436.8

3,386.0

30.2

30.2

77.1

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

4.6

176.7

191.4

0.1

0.1

4.5

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

209.5

567.2

397.9

0.6

55.0

282.4

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

26.5

23.4

0.5

2.4

7.4

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.1

13.3

11.4

0.6

6.2

3.2

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

16.1

24.1

0.4

7.1

25.3

0.7

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

7.5

61.6

125.6

3.2

64.1

253.3

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

25.0

96.6

106.3

4.2

67.2

122.1

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

258.1

789.3

665.0

16.1

220.2

669.1

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

 

   UPLAND

178.4

5,822.0

7,024.0

142.3

2,312.4

1,905.2

15.0

485.7

   PIMA

21.7

227.2

122.7

15.8

103.1

75.3

0.0

0.7

 







FINAL 2019/20 MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

CARRYOVER

SALES 1/

09/30/2020

EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED

EXPORTS

SOY MEAL

5.7

309.6

216.3

11,818.3

SOY OIL

-3.8

49.3

15.6

1,234.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period September 25-October 1, 2020.

 

Wheat:  Net
sales of 530,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (202,900 MT, including decreases of 18,700 MT), Mexico (96,300 MT), unknown destinations
(79,800 MT), Indonesia (57,000 MT), and Thailand (39,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Costa Rica (600 MT) and Spain (600 MT).  For 2021/2022, nets sales of 37,400 MT resulting in increases for Brazil (40,000 MT), were offset by reductions for
Malaysia (2,600 MT).  Exports of 702,700 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (175,200 MT), Mexico (95,000 MT), Nigeria (80,100 MT), Vietnam (66,000 MT),
and China (65,200 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,225,700 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for Japan (360,100 MT, including 39,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 41,500 MT), Mexico (332,700 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), unknown destinations (310,900 MT), Colombia (93,400
MT, including 34,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,900 MT), and Panama (52,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (71,800 MT), Peru (24,100 MT), and El Salvador (7,700 MT).  Exports of 934,800 MT were primarily to China (349,900
MT), Mexico (275,400 MT), Colombia (121,600 MT), Japan (81,600 MT), and Costa Rica (46,200 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 739,800 MT is for Vietnam (260,000 MT), Taiwan (204,200 MT), Argentina (127,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), and Ukraine (30,000 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 200 MT were to South Korea.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 132,400 MT for 2020/2021 resulted in increases for China (215,400 MT, including 83,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (83,000 MT).  Exports of 157,600 MT were primarily to China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 258,100 MT for 2020/2021–marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (88,400 MT), Venezuela (60,000 MT), Costa Rica (38,100 MT), South Korea (36,000
MT), and El Salvador (13,800 MT).  Exports of 16,100 MT were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (7,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (3,200 MT), Canada (1,900 MT), Mexico
(1,600 MT), and Jordan (700 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 2,590,700 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for China (1,538,100 MT, including 449,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,100 MT), Mexico (183,300 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Egypt (120,000 MT), Bangladesh (111,000
MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Vietnam (97,500 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Exports of 2,068,600 MT were primarily to China (1,385,200 MT), Mexico (101,300 MT), Vietnam (83,200 MT), Pakistan (70,300 MT), and Spain
(67,100 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 126,000 MT, all China.

Exports for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 7,300 MT, all Canada.

Soybean Cake and Meal: 
Net sales for the 2020/2021 marketing year, which began October 1, totaled 271,700 MT primarily for Mexico (117,800 MT), Colombia (36,400 MT), Japan (29,300 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), Panama (14,000 MT), and Guatemala (12,500 MT, including 3,000
MT switched from El Salvador and decreases of 1,000 MT).  A total of 309,600 MT in sales were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year, which ended September 30.  Exports for the period ending September 30 of 216,300 MT brought accumulated exports to
11,818,300 MT, up 3 percent from the prior year’s total of 11,427,800 MT.  The primary destinations were to Colombia (70,700 MT), Guatemala (32,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (29,600 MT), Honduras (18,000 MT), and Mexico (13,400 MT).  Exports for October
1 totaled 30,200 MT, with Honduras (6,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (6,200 MT), Guatemala (5,800 MT), El Salvador (4,200 MT), and Canada (3,300 MT) being the primary destinations.

Soybean Oil: 
Net sales for the 2020/2021 marketing year, which began October 1, totaled 4,600 MT for Guatemala (3,000 MT), Jamaica (500 MT), the Dominican Republic (500 MT), Mexico (400 MT), and Canada (200 MT).  A total of 49,300 MT in sales were carried over from the
2019/2020 marketing year, which ended September 30.  Exports for the period ending September 30 of 15,600 MT brought accumulated exports to 1,234,600 MT, up 54 percent from the prior year’s total of 800,800 MT.  The destinations were to Guatemala (8,000 MT),
Nicaragua (2,500 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), Costa Rica (2,000 MT), and Mexico (800 MT).  Exports for October 1 totaled 100 MT, with Canada being the destination.

Cotton: 
Net sales of 178,400 RB for 2020/2021 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (125,500 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 9,200 RB), China (26,700
RB, including decreases of 700 RB), Pakistan (21,500 RB, including decreases of 1,600 RB), Costa Rica (6,200 RB), and Mexico (5,200 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Bangladesh (14,000 RB), Japan (3,900 RB), and Hong
Kong (1,300 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 15,000 RB were for Bangladesh (13,200 RB) and Costa Rica (1,800 RB).  Exports of 142,300 RB were down 35 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China
(53,500 RB), Vietnam (16,900 RB), Mexico (16,800 RB), Turkey (11,200 RB), and Bangladesh (9,200 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 21,700 RB were up 11 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India
(11,300 RB), Pakistan (3,800 RB), Bangladesh (3,000 RB, including 300 RB switched from Switzerland), and Vietnam (2,200 RB), were offset by reductions for Turkey (400 RB) and Switzerland (300 RB).  Exports of 15,800 RB were up 46 percent from the previous
week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were India (5,100 RB), Vietnam (3,100 RB), Pakistan (1,800 RB), Turkey (1,600 RB), and Peru (1,500 RB). 

Exports for Own account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 13,000 RB is for China (8,100 RB), Indonesia (3,900 RB), and Bangladesh (1,000 RB).

 

Hides
and Skins:
Net sales of 285,000 pieces for 2020 were unchanged from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (227,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 46,900 pieces), Cambodia (16,600 whole cattle
hides), Mexico (15,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 300 pieces), South Korea (11,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,600 pieces), and Thailand (9,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions
primarily for Vietnam (2,000 pieces) and Taiwan (700 pieces).  Additionally, total net sales reductions of 100 kip skins were reported for Italy.  Exports of 461,800 pieces reported for 2020 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior
4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (375,800 pieces), South Korea (42,800 pieces), Mexico (18,200 pieces), Brazil (6,000 pieces), and Thailand (4,200 pieces).  In addition, exports of 1,000 kip skins were to Italy.

Net
sales of 117,800 wet blues for 2020 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (43,900 unsplit), Thailand (32,200 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit), Vietnam (22,800 unsplit),
Mexico (10,000 grain splits and 3,400 unsplit), and South Korea (7,000 grain splits), were offset by reductions for India (4,900 grain splits) and Taiwan (200 unsplit).  For 2021, total net sales of 4,900 wet blues grain splits were reported for India.  Exports
of 186,700 wet blues for 2020 were up 10 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (49,500 unsplit), Vietnam (37,100 unsplit and 3,600 grain splits), Italy (34,700 unsplit and 8,100
grain splits), Thailand (24,600 unsplit), and Mexico (8,900 grain splits and 4,400 unsplit).  Net sales of 228,200 splits resulting in increases for China (241,800 pounds, including decreases of 6,600 pounds), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (13,600
pounds).    Exports of 324,900 pounds were to Vietnam (239,700 pounds) and China (85,200 pounds).

 

Beef:
Net
sales of 20,700 MT reported for 2020 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (5,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (4,100 MT), Japan (3,700 MT, including
decreases of 1,400 MT), Hong Kong (3,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 2,200 MT were primarily for Japan (1,400 MT) and Canada (500 MT).  Exports of 16,900 MT were up 2 percent
from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,500 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), Hong Kong (1,600 MT), China (1,500 MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT).

Pork:
Net sales of
60,200 MT reported for 2020–a marketing-year high–were up 52 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (29,000 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Mexico (16,400 MT, including decreases of 500
MT), Canada (4,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and South Korea (2,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 500 MT were primarily for Canada (300 MT) and Australia (100 MT).  Exports
of 36,800 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,200 MT), China (10,600 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Canada (2,500 MT), and South Korea (2,200 MT).

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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