PDF attached

 

China
bought 264k soybeans.

 

Volatile
trade expected.  Lower start to the day in agriculture, energy and equity markets while the USD increased after President Trump and the first lady tested positive for coronavirus. 

 

The
soybean complex is sharply lower led by sharply lower SBO.  Argentina cut export taxes on soybeans and products and also mining products to entice producer selling.  There were no CBOT deliveries posted.  Bunge cancelled 32 soybean meal receipts and there
were no changes to soybean oil registrations.  Malaysian palm oil settled at 2708, down 81 MYR from the previous day.  Cash fell 2.2% or $15.50/ton to $694.50.  Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil flat (33 lower for the week to date)
and meal $5.10 lower.  Rotterdam soybean oil values were down about 6-7 euros, rapeseed oil 12 lower in the benchmark positions, and Rotterdam meal mostly unchanged from this time previous session. 

 

CBOT
corn is setting back from multi month highs from the higher USD and decay in the soybean complex.  French corn crop ratings were unavailable due to a delay in reporting. 

 

Wheat
is lower from improving weather conditions for Russia and Australia were rain is forecast to fall.  Russian export prospects for 2020-21 are improving as crop production estimates are starting to increase.  SovEcon increased their forecast for Russian grain
exports by 2.5 million tons to 49.1 million tons for 2020-21, and wheat by 1.7MMT to 38.9MMT.  For 2019-20, grin exports were seen at 45.1MMT and wheat exports at 34.8MMT.  The Ukrainian Bakers Association warned domestic wheat prices had increased 40% this
year, including a 25% rise in September, and that sugar prices jumped by 30% last week and sunoil prices are up 50% this year.  They warned bread prices will be sharply higher this year. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments
    of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

MONDAY,
Oct. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.K.
    wheat and barley production estimates
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ANZ
    Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, some states of Australia

TUESDAY,
Oct. 6:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

StoneX
October update (lower production)

U.S.
2020 corn yield 179.0 versus late August 179.6 and 182.4 early August

Corn
production 14.942 versus 15.085 billion late August and 15.320 billion previously

U.S.
2020 soybean yield 52.4 versus 52.9 late August and 54.2 early August

Soybean
production 4.351 versus 4.388 billion late August and 4.496 billion previously

 

 

Macros

US
Aide: Tsy Sec Mnuchin Tests Negative For Covid-19

Trump
And The First Lady Have Tested Positive For Coronavirus

House
Democrats Pass $2.2T Stimulus Republicans Reject

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Sep: 661K (est 850K; prevR 1489K; prev 1371K)

US
Unemployment Rate Sep: 7.9% (est 8.2%; prev 8.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Sep: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.3%; prev 0.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Sep: 4.7% (est 4.8%; prevR 4.6%; prev 4.7%)

 

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, US exporters reported the following:
    • Private
      exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 264,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Results
    awaited: Ethiopia seeks about 80,000 tons of milling wheat on Sept. 30.
  • Jordan
    issued a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on October 7, optional origin. 
  • Turkey
    seeks 135,000 tons of 12.5% and 13.5% wheat on October 9 for oct 16 and Nov 2 shipment. 
  • Ethiopia
    seeks 400,000 tons of wheat by October 13.
  • (new
    9/15) Ethiopia seeks about 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 15.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Syria is in for 39,400 tons of white rice on September 30. 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.