FI Morning Grain Comments 10/02/20

Oct 2, 2020







PDF attached

 

China
bought 264k soybeans.

 

Volatile
trade expected.  Lower start to the day in agriculture, energy and equity markets while the USD increased after President Trump and the first lady tested positive for coronavirus. 

 

The
soybean complex is sharply lower led by sharply lower SBO.  Argentina cut export taxes on soybeans and products and also mining products to entice producer selling.  There were no CBOT deliveries posted.  Bunge cancelled 32 soybean meal receipts and there
were no changes to soybean oil registrations.  Malaysian palm oil settled at 2708, down 81 MYR from the previous day.  Cash fell 2.2% or $15.50/ton to $694.50.  Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil flat (33 lower for the week to date)
and meal $5.10 lower.  Rotterdam soybean oil values were down about 6-7 euros, rapeseed oil 12 lower in the benchmark positions, and Rotterdam meal mostly unchanged from this time previous session. 

 

CBOT
corn is setting back from multi month highs from the higher USD and decay in the soybean complex.  French corn crop ratings were unavailable due to a delay in reporting. 

 

Wheat
is lower from improving weather conditions for Russia and Australia were rain is forecast to fall.  Russian export prospects for 2020-21 are improving as crop production estimates are starting to increase.  SovEcon increased their forecast for Russian grain
exports by 2.5 million tons to 49.1 million tons for 2020-21, and wheat by 1.7MMT to 38.9MMT.  For 2019-20, grin exports were seen at 45.1MMT and wheat exports at 34.8MMT.  The Ukrainian Bakers Association warned domestic wheat prices had increased 40% this
year, including a 25% rise in September, and that sugar prices jumped by 30% last week and sunoil prices are up 50% this year.  They warned bread prices will be sharply higher this year. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments
    of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

MONDAY,
Oct. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data