PDF attached




note I will be out the balance of the week, attending the AFOA conference in Nashville. 


supply and demand, export inspections and crop progress are due out today.  For the USDA report, we don’t look for much in the way for surprises.  We expect no major changes for the US corn and soybean harvested area.  General consensus is for the US corn
yield to decrease a touch and soybean yield to be up around a half a bushel.  Our bias is for both corn and soybean yields to improve from September. 


morning we are seeing a weaker trade in the soybean complex and corn.  Palm futures fell 2%.  US wheat contracts are mostly higher after Egypt floated an import tender.  USD is now about 18 higher, WTI 26 cents lower, and equities higher. 









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Weather Inc.


  • Few
    changes were noted around the world in this first week of the outlook overnight.
    • However,
      the second week will become more active in Europe, Russia and neighboring areas.
  • India
    is still expecting rain in Uttar Pradesh and some far northern parts of the nation later this week.
    • Most
      of India’s wetter biased weather is expected in the southern and eastern parts of the nation.
  • China’s
    weather will be well mixed for a while with the Yellow River Basin, North China Plain and northeastern provinces seeing a net drying bias for a while.
  • Tropical
    Storm Kompasu is still expected to move to Hainan, China Wednesday and Thursday and then into northern Vietnam Thursday into the weekend.
    • Some
      damage to sugarcane and rice is possible especially on Hainan Island.
  • Argentina
    will experience scattered showers during the balance of this week and then trend drier again for the weekend and especially next week.
  • Brazil
    weather will be well mixed for most of the nation’s grain, oilseed, cotton, rice, coffee, citrus and sugarcane production areas over the next ten days.
  • U.S.
    weather will continue active in the northern Plains today and Wednesday and across part of the southern Plains and Midwest during the balance of this week before seven days of drying evolves to support harvest progress and some winter crop planting.  
    • Livestock
      stress is likely in eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, the far western most Dakotas due to heavy snow, cold rain, windy conditions and falling temperatures
      • Snow
        accumulations of 4 to 10 inches will be common with a few areas to get upwards to 15 inches
        • Warm
          soil temperatures will melt the snow quickly, but there will still be some livestock stress and travel issues
    • Moisture
      totals in the western Dakotas will range from 1.00 to 2.50 inches and the remainder of the Dakotas and Minnesota will
    • receive
      0.50 to 1.50 inches with southwestern Minnesota and southeastern South Dakota driest
  • An
    active weather pattern will also continue in eastern portions of the U.S. Plains and the Midwest into the latter part of this week before drier biased conditions evolve this weekend and last through most of next week
    • Good
      harvest weather is expected this weekend and especially next week
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will see a mix of weather during the next ten days, but moisture totals will be light and infrequent enough to support improved field conditions
  • U.S.
    west-central and southwestern Plains will continue mostly dry as will the interior Pacific Northwest and most of California
  • Europe
    rainfall will continue greatest in the southeast this week, but a more active weather pattern is expected in the central and north next week
  • Russia,
    Belarus, the Baltic States and parts of Ukraine will experience a more active weather pattern next week after tranquil weather continues for a while longer this week


Ag Calendar

Oct. 12:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, noon
  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • China
    farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
  • U.S.
    crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
  • AHDB
    grain market outlook conference
  • French
    agriculture ministry’s crop production estimate
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Vietnam
    customs to release September commodity trade data

Oct. 13:

  • China’s
    first batch of September trade data, including imports of soybeans, meat and edible oils
  • New
    Zealand food prices
  • France
    AgriMer monthly grains report
  • European
    cocoa grindings