FI Morning Grain Comments 10/01/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WTI
is about 51 cents lower and USD down 17.  US equities are higher. Soybeans eased overnight on follow through buying while meal is higher from a reversal in product spreads.  Corn is higher following strength in wheat.  Wheat is higher, following Paris December
hitting a new contract high.  Soybean oil is lower on profit taking, correction to oil share, and lower outside vegetable oil markets.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 01, 2021

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will have an opportunity for a little more rain today into Saturday morning before a week of dry and warming conditions evolves.
  
• Some
  of the recent rain was very helpful for planting and emergence, but other areas were left a little too dry.
  
• Harvest
  delays will occur in the U.S. Midwest this weekend into Monday, but improved conditions will occur thereafter for at least a week.
  
• Today’s
  outlook is a little wetter in the U.S. southeastern states for next week and Delta stays a little too wet during much of the coming week.
  
• A
  tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea will need to be closely monitored.
• Today’s
  06z GFS model run suggested a tropical cyclone may evolve next week near Jamaica and move across central Cuba late next week and then pass between Florida and the Bahamas in the following weekend
• Confidence
  in this event is low
• The
  GFS model is the only one suggesting a tropical cyclone might evolve
• Weather
  in West Texas will improve after showers today.
• The
  northern U.S. Plains and Canada will have a chance for precipitation a week from now, but not until then.
  
• Argentina
  will stay too dry in the west-central and northwest, despite expected showers.
  
• Interior
  southern Brazil began receiving rain overnight and more is expected this weekend while center west and center south crop areas are drier biased for up to a week, despite some showers.
  
• Southern
  Australia will get timely rainfall during the coming week to ten days
• Northern
  China will be too wet for the next five days.
• This
  will mostly be near and north of the Yellow River where local flooding is possible
• India’s
  monsoon will begin withdrawing from the north this weekend.
• Western
  Europe will be wet in the coming week and there is improved potential for rain in the drier areas of southeastern Europe during the second week of this month. 
• Many
  tropical cyclones are in the world’s oceans today, but Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor are no threat to land in the Atlantic
• Tropical
  Cyclone Gulab in the northern Arabian Sea may move into northern Oman late this weekend
• Typhoon
  Mindulle will stay to the southeast of Honshu Japan
• A
  new disturbance will evolve over the Philippines next week and may eventually move toward Vietnam in the second week of October
• Another
  disturbance will form in the Philippine Sea a week to ten days from now
• Central
  and eastern South Africa will receive some beneficial moisture over the coming week – some of which began Thursday

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• New
  cocoa season in Ivory Coast starts
• U.S.
  DDGS production, corn for ethanol
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• Australia
  commodity index
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong

Monday,
Oct. 4:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Tuesday,
Oct. 5:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Moscow
  Golden Autumn Agriculture conference (Oct. 5-8)
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-5 palm oil exports
• U.S.
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Wednesday,
Oct. 6:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Agricultural
  Technology and Food Salon, a virtual event organized by IFIC (Oct. 6-7)
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Thursday,
Oct. 7:

• FAO
  Food Price Index & cereals supply/demand brief
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Friday,
Oct. 8:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income Aug: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 1.1%)

US
Personal Spending Aug: 0.8% (est 0.7%; prevR -0.1%; prev 0.3%)

US
Real Personal Spending Aug: 0.4% (est 0.4%; prevR -0.5%; prev -0.1%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 3.6% (est 3.5%; prev 3.6%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 4.3% (est 4.2%; prev 4.2%)

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%)

Canadian
GDP (M/M) Jul: -0.1% (est -0.2%; prev 0.7%)

Canadian
GDP (Y/Y) Jul: 4.7% (est 5.0%; prev 8.0%)

Canadian
MLI Leading Indicator (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (prevR 0.9%; prev 1.0%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is higher following strength in wheat.

·        
Harvest delays of the Ukraine corn crop was noted supportive for corn by European traders. 

·        
France is only 2% complete for their corn harvest progress, well below 31% at this time last year. 

·        
There were no tender announcements overnight. 

·        
We are hearing Tar Spot impacted many plots across central and northern Indiana into southern Michigan during the growing season.  Some yields for irrigated yields were seen around 170 bu/ac and unirrigated around 220 bu/ac. 
Guide to Tar Spot https://crop-protection-network.s3.amazonaws.com/publications/tar-spot-filename-2019-03-25-120313.pdf

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans eased overnight on follow through selling while meal is higher from a reversal in product spreads. 

·        
CBOT crush is higher this morning at 114 cents basis December. 

·        
Soybean oil is lower on profit taking, correction to oil share, and lower outside vegetable oil markets.

·        
Third month rolling Malaysian palm oil futures traded off an all-time record high established Thursday by trading 90 lower at 4,505 ringgit.  Cash palm declined $20/ton to $1,152.50/ton. 

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported September Malaysian palm exports at 1,705,713 tons, 514,660 tons above the same period a month ago or up 43.2%, and 100,984 tons above the same period a year ago or up 6.3%.

·        
China is on holiday October 1-7. 

·        
China cash crush margins were last 176 cents/bu on our analysis (176 previous) versus 159 cents late last week and 90 cents around a year ago. 

·        
CNGOIC reported China’s soybean crush fell nearly 200,000 tons last week to 1.71 million tons.  Year ago, it was near 2.2 million tons. 

·        
Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 101 points lower (95 lower for the week to date) and meal $6.80/short ton higher ($1.50 lower for the week).

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is higher following a rally in EU wheat futures and spillover buying after USDA reduced its 2021 US wheat production estimate. 

·        
The US central and southern areas of the Great Plains will see rain today through Saturday. 

·        
Paris December wheat was up 5.75 at 263.75 euros, a new contract high. 

·        
The USD was 16 points lower as of 7:51 am CT.

·        
Ukraine harvested 46.99 million tons of grain from 67.3% of its planted area with the yield averaging 4.38 tons per hectare (AgMin), including 32.2 million tons of wheat, 9.6 million tons of barley, and 1.9 million tons of corn.

·        
Ukraine exported 14.36 million tons of grain so far in the 2021-22 July-June season versus 12.15 million at the same point a year earlier, including 8.94 million tons of wheat, 3.78 million tons of barley and 1.43 million tons
of corn.  Production may end up near a record 80.6 million tons, up from 65 million tons in 2020.

·        
Russian wheat export duty is expected to increase to $57.8/ton as of Oct 6 (AgMin) from the current $53.5, which has applied since September 29.  

·        
The European Commission on Thursday raised its estimate of usable production of common wheat in European Union’s 27 member countries in 2021-22 to 131.0 million tons from 127.2 million projected last month.

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of animal feed barley 
for
shipment in November and December.  Details were lacking. 

·        
Turkey seeks 310,000 tons of feed barley, on Oct. 8. 

·        
Bangladesh plans to buy 100,000 tons of wheat from Russia in a government-to-government tender. 

·        
The UN seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 8 for Ethiopia for delivery 90 days after contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on October 4.