FI Morning Grain Comments 10/01/20

PDF attached

Morning.

USDA
export sales were robust.  WTI is taking a hit, pulling SBO lower.  September 1 stocks were bullish, and we are seeing follow through buying in corn and soybeans. Both nearby corn and soybeans traded slightly above their respected intraday highs established
on Wednesday.   USD is lower, equities higher.  Wheat is mixed on light profit taking.  China is on holiday.  Malaysian palm rallied 75 and cash was up $22.50.  Syria tendered again for 50k soybean meal and 50k corn.  Iran bought an unknown amount of soybean
meal and corn overnight. 

Weather
and Crop Progress

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

• Russia’s
  Southern Region was advertised to get “some” light rain by the European model run a week from now on October 8-10, but confidence is very low
• Recent
  research by World Weather, Inc. has revealed a low potential for “significant” rain in Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan through much of October, but especially in the first half of the month
• Brazil
  rainfall advertised by the GFS model run in the October 10-15 period in center west and center south may be overdone, but “some” showers are expected during that period
• Greater
  rainfall will have to be delayed a little longer, but a ramping up of precipitation is expected by World Weather, Inc. during the Oct. 16-22 period and the best rainfall this month should occur October 23-31
• Excessive
  heat in Brazil through October 10 will raise much worry over livestock conditions and early planted corn and other crops
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane will be stressed as well
• Frequent
  high temperatures in the 90s to 110 degrees are expected with extremes over 112 possible randomly in center west Brazil
• Extreme
  highs in Brazil Wednesday were mostly in the range of 100 to 111 degrees Fahrenheit from Mato Grosso do Goias, northern Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and Paraguay
  
• An
  extreme of 115 degrees Fahrenheit occurred in northern Corrientes, Argentina Wednesday
• Southwestern
  Argentina rainfall potential was raised by the GFS model for San Luis, northern La Pampa, southern Cordoba and northwestern Buenos Aires Oct. 9-11 – some of this predicted rainfall may be exaggerated
• Northeastern
  China will dry down next week
• Excellent
  field working conditions will occur in China’s Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over the next ten days
• Less
  rain was suggested for southern China next week
• Central
  India rainfall advertised for next week has been delayed until the second half of next week relative to Wednesday’s forecasts
• Tropical
  Depression is expected to evolve Friday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that will impact the Yucatan Peninsula during the weekend
• This
  storm is not being handled very well by the various models with no good agreement on its movement or landfall potential after impacting the Yucatan Peninsula – a close watch on the system is warranted
• World
  Weather, Inc. favors a westward movement late in the weekend into next week that may bring the system to the east coast of mainland Mexico
• A
  second tropical disturbance will reach the southeastern Caribbean Sea next week and “may” threaten Cuba or the southeastern United States in ten days
• Western
  Australia’s best chance for rain will be today and Friday and it may be confined to far southern crop areas and its intensity will be light
• Southeastern
  Queensland, Australia rainfall advertised for next week by some of the models Wednesday has been removed; the change was needed
• Overnight
  temperatures in western Saskatchewan, Canada, eastern Alberta and the northwestern U.S. Plains overnight were a little colder than expected, but the impact was minimal since those areas have already experienced a freeze this year
• Stormy
  weather is expected across western Europe over the next several days with strong wind, heavy rain and flooding expected
• France,
  the United Kingdom and northern Spain may be most impacted with some impact in Belgium, Netherlands and western Germany late in the weekend