FI Morning Grain Comments 09/30/20

PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Today
we get September 1 stocks and weekly ethanol production/stocks.  USDA export sales will be out Thursday and Friday we will find out if funds liquidated more long positions than what the trade expected. 

 

Today
we wake up to market uncertainty in the outside markets as it seemed everyone, politicians and voters alike, lost the US debate last night.  Soybeans and corn are under pressure from ongoing harvesting pressure and lead from the outside markets.  Wheat is
finding strength from Black Sea weather problems.  USD was up 16, WTI down $0.02, gold $1.60 lower and US equities mixed.  There were only 54 meal deliveries and zero soybean oil.  China cash margins are softer from yesterday.  China soybean oil and palm oil
futures were down 2.1% and 2.5%, respectively. We heard China bought at least one December Gulf soybean cargo and Cofco bought two Jan/Feb PNW shipments.  Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 2 points higher and meal $3.40 higher.  Malaysian
palm oil futures were down 63 and cash off $14.00.  AmSpec reported September Malaysian palm oil shipments at 1.631 million tons, up 10.5 percent from August (1.476MMT).  Japan bought 5,375 tons of feed wheat.  Ukraine’s ministry lowered their estimate for
the 2021 winter wheat planted area by 9 percent to 6.1 million hectares from around 6.7 million in September.  Ukraine weather forecasters called weather conditions are the worst in 10 years and only 10% to 15% of Ukraine’s arable land was suitable for sowing
winter crops for the 2021.  Russia’s AgMin raised their estimate for the 2020-21 grain crop to more than 125 million tons with no less than 82 million tons of wheat, above their previous grain crop estimate of 122.5 million tons (75MMT wheat).  US weather
remains great for harvesting.  There could be frosts events across the northwestern Corn Belt Thursday and Friday, potentially ending the growing season. Canada’s Manitoba canola harvest is nearly complete. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

ARGENTINA

Past
Weather

• Tuesday
  was mostly dry and high temperatures were in the upper 70s to the lower 90s Fahrenheit with some middle and upper 90s in the north and some lower to middle 70s in the south.

Forecast,
crop impacts, and other notable events

·        
A contrast in soil moisture will continue through the next two weeks with dry soils from interior southern to northern Cordoba and central Santa Fe to most of Santiago del Estero while most other areas see additional rain and
have favorable soil moisture.

o  
The drier areas need rain to improve soil moisture for winter wheat as well as for summer crops with dryness likely returning to southern Cordoba, northeastern La Pampa, northwestern Buenos Aires, and southern Santa Fe during
the first two weeks in October as this region is disfavored for significant rain.

o  
A few light showers will occur in central and northern Entre Rios today.

o  
Rain will increase Thursday into Saturday from northern Santa Fe and nearby Santiago del Estero to central and southern Corrientes and northern Entre Rios where most areas will receive 0.40-1.50″ and locally more with southern
Corrientes wettest and lighter rain in Santiago del Estero.

o  
Southern Argentina will see increases in rain Saturday into Sunday.

§ 
Most areas from central and southern La Pampa into central, southern and eastern Buenos Aires will see enough rain to restore some of the topsoil moisture lost to evaporation this week and soil moisture should remain favorable
for winter wheat and for summer crop planting.

 

 

COMMONWEALTH
OF INDEPENDENT STATES

Past
Weather

• Welcome
  rain returned to Ukraine Tuesday into early this morning. However, dry weather prevailed in the eastern portions of the nation.
  
• Moisture
  totals varied from 0.65 to 1.81 inches in western Ukraine and 0.15 to 0.70 inch in central Ukraine. Local totals in central Ukraine reached up to 1.50 inches.
  
• Otherwise,
  mostly dry weather occurred. 
• Highs
  varied in the 60s and 70s from Ukraine through Russia’s Southern Region and lower Volga Basin into northwestern Kazakhstan. Elsewhere highs varied in the 50s and 60s in the western CIS and 40s and 50s in the New Lands.
  
• Frost
  and freezes were suspected in the New Lands back. Elsewhere lows were no cooler than the upper 30s and 40s.
  

 

Forecast
and Impacts

• Additional
  rain will impact Ukraine and surrounding areas of Russia’s Southern Region near the Black Sea today into Friday and return Tuesday into next Wednesday and enough rain will occur to support planting of wheat, barley, rye and rapeseed.  Improved establishment
  is expected in those areas already planted and a much-improved winter production outlook will result. With that said, additional follow up rain will be needed throughout October to ensure moisture deficits are significantly eased and dryness does not return.
     
• Rain
  totals by this time next week will range from 0.40 to 1.20 inches and local totals up to 2.50 inches.
  
• Also
  portions of eastern Ukraine will remain driest and many locations will receive no more than 0.30 inch and dryness will prevail.
  

• Otherwise,
  mostly dry weather will occur throughout the remainder of the western CIS through this weekend.
• A
  few showers in Belarus and surrounding areas of western Russia will increase this weekend, but daily totals will rarely exceed 0.40 inch.
  
• Rain
  will increase next workweek over Belarus, the Baltic States into northwestern Russia.
  
• Moisture
  totals Monday through next Friday, October 9 will range from 0.30 to 1.00 inch and local totals up to 2.00 inches.
  
• Drying
  will occur from the Volga Basin into northwestern Kazakhstan through October 9.