FI Morning Grain Comments 09/29/21

PDF attached

Good
morning.

Despite
a lower trade in energies and higher USD (up about 20 points and highest level since November 2020), major CBOT agriculture markets are higher. 
US equities are seeing a reversal.  EU markets are lending support to CBOT soybeans and wheat.  Look for positioning today.  Grain Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports are due out at 11 am CT on Thursday.  Algeria bought wheat
and Pakistan are in for wheat.  A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 13,000 barrels (920-953 range) from the previous week and stocks up 84,000 barrels to 20.195 million.

Weather

7-day

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 29, 2021

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get rain over the next few days improving wheat planting and emergence conditions, but follow up rain will be needed
• West
  Texas cotton areas will get rain over the next few days, but the impact will be short-lived and any slowdown in crop maturation will be temporary 
• U.S.
  western Corn and Soybean Belt will trend a little wetter over the next few days with the east trending the same late this week and into the weekend
  
• a
  slowdown in crop maturation and harvesting will occur, but a full week of drying may follow
• U.S.
  Northwestern Plains, Canada’s Prairies and much of the far western U.S. will be dry For an extended period with more heat next week in the northwestern Plains and Canada’s Prairies
• Southeastern
  U.S. will see a good mix of weather over the next two weeks
• U.S.
  Delta will get rain a little more frequently than desired for a while slowing fieldwork and raising a little concern over cotton conditions
• Southern
  and eastern Argentina will get some rain over the next couple of days, but west-central and northwestern areas will remain dry biased for an extended period of time
• Brazil
  rain will be greatest in the interior south through the weekend, but showers in center west and center south will increase next week
  
• the
  precipitation will still be erratic with some areas getting more rain than others and the need for additional moisture will be high
• India’s
  monsoon will finally begin to withdraw this weekend and especially next week
• Rain
  in southern Pakistan today will raise a little concern over cotton fiber quality, but the rain will only last a couple of days
• Gujarat,
  India should not have been harmed by recent rain because of crop development being later than usual
• Punjab
  and Haryana cotton quality was compromised this month by periods of heavy rainfall 
• China
  is still expecting another round of heavy rain north of the Yellow River and in a part of the northeastern Provinces
  
• Much
  of the north has been too west recently and needs to dry out for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
• Russia
  and Ukraine winter crop areas along with eastern Europe will experience a week of dry weather 
  
• Planting,
  emergence and establishment of winter crops will improve during this period 
• Dryness
  is still a concern for the lower Danube River Basin, southern Italy and parts of Spain
• South
  Africa will get some beneficial rainfall in the coming week supporting wheat as it approaches and enters reproduction
• Eastern
  Australia received some welcome rain Tuesday and early today with Queensland and New South Wales reaping most of the benefits
  
• More
  rain will fall into Thursday
• The
  moisture will be good for reproducing winter crops
• The
  moisture will also improve topsoil moisture for future cotton and sorghum planting in Queensland, although much more will still be needed