FI Morning Grain Comments 09/29/20

 

Morning.

 

Markets
are searching for direction today with mostly a softer undertone.  Today is position day for October meal and oil.  Meal registrations stand at 300 and SBO at 1,907.  Look for positioning in other markets ahead of the USDA Grain Stocks report.  US weather
still looks favorable but cold.  There were no major surprises in the US crop progress report.  Soybean conditions were up one and corn unchanged.  Winter wheat plantings are running at 35 percent, slightly above average.  USD was down 22, WTI down $0.24,
gold $1.90 higher and US equities mostly lower.  Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 50 points lower and meal $1.80 higher.  Malaysian palm oil futures were down 45 and cash off $5.50.  China soybean oil and palm were up 0.3% and 0.4%,
respectively.  China warned La Nina may bring colder winter and frost in the corn region.  Thailand is in for 213,000 tons of feed wheat.  Yesterday Jordan bought 120,000 tons of wheat. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

• AREAS
  OF CONCERN

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will be dry for the next ten days to two weeks and excessive heat and dryness has already depleted soil moisture
• Montana
  and South Dakota wheat areas need greater moisture too
• Russia’s
  Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting, although some brief showers will occur near the Ukrainian border over the coming week
• Kazakhstan
  wheat areas are still critically dry in unirrigated areas and rain is unlikely for the next two weeks
• Northeastern
  China continues to receive rain too frequently and summer crop maturation and harvesting remain slow, despite some weekend drying
• South
  Africa winter crop areas need rain as do future spring planting areas
• Brazil’s
  center west and center south crop areas will be drier than usual into the middle of October further delaying the planting of early soybeans and some corn
• Brazil
  coffee areas will experience little to no rain of significance for the next ten days
  
• Brazil
  temperatures will remain very warm to hot over the next ten days
• Northwestern
  and west-central Argentina will remain too dry over the next ten days
• Flooding
  rain may impact a part of far southern Mexico and Central America in the next ten days to two weeks
• A
  tropical cyclone may form in the Caribbean Sea later this week and could threaten Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula
• Northeastern
  China’s weather will become wetter biased again Wednesday through the weekend and drier next week

• AREAS
  OF IMPROVEMENT

• Ukraine
  has received some rain and more will fall over the coming week to improve winter crop planting and establishment conditions
• Northeastern
  China has seen some net drying recently and fieldwork may be advancing at a “snail’s pace” with more rain coming
• Net
  drying will occur the remainder of this week in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states benefiting areas that have been too wet in recent weeks

 

UNITED
STATES

• Dryness
  will continue in the U.S. Plains for at least ten days and probably longer
• Rain
  in the Midwest will be most frequent and significant in the Great Lakes region where field working delays will be most frequent
• Improving
  conditions are likely in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states
• Temperatures
  are still expected to be cold in the heart of the Midwest into next week while the western U.S. is quite warm

BRAZIL

• Worry
  over dryness in center west and center south will continue with little to no rain for the next ten days
• Some
  showers may develop thereafter, but with restricted rainfall resulting for some areas into mid-month
• Temperature
  will continue hot in many areas