PDF attached

 

 

Morning.

 

USD
up 21, WTI down $0.37, gold $11.50 lower and US equities mostly weaker.  Light news day in oilseeds.  Soybeans are mixed with November just below the psychological $10.00 level. The contract is on track to decline around 4 percent this week.  Soybean meal
is lower while soybean oil is finding some strength from a higher trade in Malaysian palm oil.  China soy futures were off 1% and palm down 1.6%.  Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded to end 68MYR higher and cash was up $14.00/ton.  Offshore values this morning
were leading CBOT soybean oil 16 points higher (5 points lower for the week) and meal $4.40 higher ($4.50 lower for the week to date).  Bull spreading in corn reflects technical buying after reaching a one-week low yesterday. French corn conditions declined
one point for the week ending Sep. 21 to 58 percent and compares to 59 percent year earlier.  15 percent of the French corn crop had been harvested compared to 2 percent year ago.  South Korea’s KFA passed on 68,000 tons of South American corn (they were not
in for US) due to high prices.  Lowest offer was $224/ton.  Wheat is lower on lack of fresh news.  

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • Argentina
    received some much needed rain overnight in interior northern parts of Buenos Aires where 0.30 to 1.00 was common and local totals over 2.00 inches
    • Lighter
      rain fell in a few neighboring areas
    • Improved
      soil moisture for wheat development and future planting of corn and sunseed resulted with more expected
  • Southern
    and eastern Argentina will get some additional very important rain today into the weekend improving topsoil moisture in many areas from La Pampa and southern Cordoba to Buenos Aires and in portions of both Santa Fe and Entre Rios
    • Follow
      up rainfall is not likely to be very frequent or significant leading to net drying conditions, but it may be a good opportunity for early season fieldwork and wheat development
    • Temperatures
      will be mild to warm
  • Dryness
    will continue in northern Cordoba, central and northwestern Santa Fe, Santiago de Estero and portions of western Chaco, Argentina during the next ten days to two weeks; some rain in northern cotton areas in the nation will allow some planting to begin
  • Central
    and western Ukraine will receive some much needed rain in the coming week to ten days with some of it being heavy 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches will occur with far western areas and neighboring areas of southeastern Poland, eastern
    Slovakia  and northern Romania also being impacted with some potential for flooding
    • Eastern
      Ukraine will also get a some needed rain Sunday into Wednesday with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.70 inch and local totals to 1.50 inches
    • Greater
      rain will be needed in eastern Ukraine while western areas will see improved rapeseed, wheat, barley and rye planting and establishment, although some delay to fieldwork will be possible
  • Flooding
    may occur in various locations in eastern Europe over the coming week because of heavy rain as noted above
  • High
    pressure ridge aloft over the heart of Brazil will minimize rain potentials in much of center west through center south crop areas for at least the next ten days and perhaps for two weeks
    • Northwestern
      Mato Grosso will be the only area that will see some periodic showers
    • Planting
      moisture will be scarce outside of northwestern Mato Grosso preventing much early soybean or corn planting and conditions will be very poor for germination and emergence
  • Southern
    Brazil wheat, corn and rice areas will receive periodic rainfall maintaining good conditions for planting, emergence and establishment of spring crops and supporting a very good wheat yield outlook
  • Beneficial
    rainfall is coming to France, the United Kingdom, Germany and many other areas in central and western Europe over the coming week easing long term dryness in northwest
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be left mostly dry
    • Some
      rain already began in France and the U.K. overnight
  • Eastern
    Bulgaria, Greece and southeastern Romania may not get much rain for a while
  • Northeastern
    China continues to fight moisture surpluses that are keeping summer crop maturation and harvest progress very slow
    • The
      situation will improve “very slowly” during the next two weeks and absolute dryness is needed
    • The
      wet bias has been present in the region since mid-August
    • Some
      fields in Jilin, eastern Liaoning and Heilongjiang may still have standing water from three tropical cyclones that impacted the region in recent weeks
    • Showers
      are still expected periodically during the next ten days and that combined with mild temperatures will keep drying rates low and fieldwork progressing poorly
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain are experiencing nearly ideal conditions for wheat planting and summer crop maturation and early harvesting
    • Alternating
      periods of rain and sunshine are expected to support wheat planting, emergence and establishment while supporting summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Western
    Australia drying remains a concern with northern crops reproducing in a declining soil moisture environment
    • Southern
      crop areas in the state still have favorable soil moisture, but the region is drying and will need rain in October to support reproduction of wheat, barley and canola
      • Some
        rain is expected in October to help ease the drying bias
  • Southeastern
    Australia wheat, barley and canola prospects are looking extremely good with soil moisture in abundance and expected to prevail in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia
    • Periodic
      rainfall is expected to continue in these areas over the next two weeks
  • Queensland,
    Australia has a large need for rain to support cotton and sorghum planting that will soon be starting; dryland areas need the moisture most significantly
    • La
      Nina should provide the necessary moisture boost later this spring