FI Morning Grain Comments 09/24/20

Sep 24, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

No
Flash sales by USDA

 

Lower
trade to start in another risk off session.  USD is again higher to near a 2-month high as equity investors continue to dump stocks.  WTI was nearly unchanged as of early this morning and gold lower.  Talk of better than expected US yields weighing on prices. 
US weather remains good for the exceptions of waterlogged fields across the lower Delta and parts of the Southeast.  Chine soybean demand slowed yesterday and is expected to be light for the remainder of the week.  Both China and Malaysian vegetable oil markets
were down sharply again on Thursday.  Germany ASF count: 3 new cases in wild boar; 32 total since Sep 10.  Ukraine could see much needed rain this weekend for winter sowing season.  Only 10-15 percent of the cropland is suitable for plantings after one of
the worst start in weather conditions over the past decade.  Japan bought 86,027 tons of food wheat.  SK bought 113,999 tons of rice. Quarterly Hog and Pigs are due out after the grain close. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1600949715

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • Central
    and western Ukraine will receive some much-needed rain in the coming week to ten days with 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain resulting over the first week of the outlook
    • Eastern
      Ukraine will also get a few showers Sunday into Wednesday with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.70 inch resulting
    • Greater
      rain will be needed in eastern Ukraine while western areas will see improved rapeseed, wheat, barley and rye planting and establishment, although some delay to fieldwork will be possible
  • High
    pressure ridge aloft over the heart of Brazil will minimize rain potentials in much of center west through center south crop areas for at least the next ten days and perhaps for two weeks
    • Northwestern
      Mato Grosso will be the only area that will see some periodic showers
    • Planting
      moisture will be scarce outside of northwestern Mato Grosso preventing much early soybean or corn planting and conditions will be very poor for germination and emergence
  • Southern
    Brazil wheat, corn and rice areas will receive periodic rainfall maintaining good conditions for planting, emergence and establishment of spring crops and supporting a very good wheat yield outlook
  • Southern
    and eastern Argentina will get some very important rain today into the weekend improving topsoil moisture in many areas from La Pampa and southern Cordoba to Buenos Aires and in portions of both Santa Fe and Entre Rios
    • Follow
      up rainfall is not likely to be very frequent or significant leading to net drying conditions, but it may be a good opportunity for early season fieldwork and wheat development
    • Temperatures
      will be mild to warm
  • Dryness
    will continue in northern Cordoba, central and northwestern Santa Fe, Santiago de Estero and portions of western Chaco, Argentina during the next ten days to two weeks; some rain in northern cotton areas in the nation will allow some planting to begin
  • Beneficial
    rainfall is coming to France, the United Kingdom, Germany and many other areas in central and western Europe over the coming week easing long term dryness in northwest
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be left mostly dry
  • Eastern
    Bulgaria, Greece and southeastern Romania may not get much rain for a while
  • Northeastern
    China continues to fight moisture surpluses that are keeping summer crop maturation and harvest progress very slow
    • The
      situation will improve “very slowly” during the next two weeks and absolute dryness is needed
    • The
      wet bias has been present in the region since mid-August
    • Some
      fields in Jilin, eastern Liaoning and Heilongjiang may still have standing water from three tropical cyclones that impacted the region in recent weeks
    • Showers
      are still expected periodically during the next ten days and that combined with mild temperatures will keep drying rates low and fieldwork progressing poorly
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain are experiencing nearly ideal conditions for wheat planting and summer crop maturation and early harvesting
  • Western
    Australia drying remains a concern with northern crops reproducing in a declining soil moisture environment
    • Southern
      crop areas in the state still have favorable soil moisture, but the region is drying and will need rain in October to support reproduction of wheat, barley and canola
      • Some
        rain is expected in October to help ease the drying bias