FI Morning Grain Comments 09/22/20

Sep 22, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Turnaround
Tuesday this morning in the ag markets with USD is lower and WTI crude higher.  The increase in Black Sea cash wheat prices, widely ignored in Monday’s trade, is supportive for wheat.  Trade is also shifting talk back to the strong Chinese corn and soybean
demand.  We heard China’s Sinograin bought 8-9 US PNW soybean cargoes on Monday, and one Argentine May cargo, while Cofco was inquiring for US Gulf shipments.  US corn conditions improved one point and soybeans were unchanged, but as we see harvest progress
increase this week, conditions will have less impact on price movements going forward.  US weather still looks good, but the weather models now indicate rainy weather for this week across the upper Midwest as the jet stream dips down into the heart of the
country, creating precipitation.  Malaysian palm oil tracked about 50MYR lower.  South Korea’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn at $229.00/ton for Oct 15-Nov 15 shipment. South Korea’s NOFI bought 202,000 tons of SA corn at between $228.45 & $228.90/ton
for Jan/Feb arrival.  Reuters poll for South Africa’s Sep 29th crop year 2020 corn crop: 15.271MMT (8.877 white & 6.493 yellow) vs. 15.537 by CEC in August and compares to 11.275MMT in 2019.  Egypt is in for wheat today and lowest off was $244.00/ton
for Russian wheat.  Don’t rule out French origin.  South Korea’s MFG passed on 70,000 tons of feed wheat for late Jan arrival with lowest offer at $255/ton c&f. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

Below
tables were issued incorrectly Monday evening

 

 

 

Tropical
Storm Beta made landfall in southeastern Texas between Corpus Christi and Houston. Significant rain related to this system will impact the Delta through Thursday and the southeastern states Wednesday into Friday. A frontal boundary will then enhance the rain
again in the southeastern states for late Saturday and Sunday. The rain in the Delta and Southeast will cause more fieldwork delays. Cotton boll rot potentials are also still elevated due to the expected heavy rain as well.

 

Showers
and a few thunderstorms are still expected in center west and center south Brazil Wednesday which will begin to moisten the topsoil moisture a little. Greater rainfall will be needed though to promote better flowering conditions.

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
Sept. 22:

  • U.S.
    cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 23:

  • China
    customs publishes data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

THURSDAY,
Sept. 24:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil’s
    Unica to release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)
  • USDA
    data on hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, poultry slaughter, 3pm
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report

FRIDAY,
Sept. 25:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
  • S&P
    Platts Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-25
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI