PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Soybean
complex and grains are mostly lower on favorable US weather and projected rain for southern Brazil that will allow for soybean plantings starting this week.  The USD was about 33 higher earlier this morning and WTI down $0.80.  US equities are rolling over
with DOW down about 500 points.  Malaysian palm fell more than 2 percent while China vegetable oil prices were higher.  Ukraine Black Sea sunflower oil was up $65-$110/ton over the past week to $1000-$1050 per APK-Inform.  The CME Platts SA soybean contract
starts trading today. China corn futures were up overnight near a 5-year high.  Taiwan, Algeria and Pakistan floated wheat import tenders. Saudi Arabia bought 540,000 tons of feed barley. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  Showers and thunderstorms in parts of Brazil and Argentina in the next two weeks will help improve topsoil moisture – at least temporarily – for some early season spring planting. China and India weather will remain
a little more tenuous for another week due to periods of rain but drying next week should improve crop maturation and future harvest conditions.

            U.S.
crop weather will be mostly very good for the next two weeks with a few disrupting showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest. Rain delays will occur to harvesting in the Delta and southeastern states later this week due to remnants of Tropical Storm Beta.

            Australia’s
canola production areas are going to benefit from periodic rainfall during the next few weeks and yield potentials will be favorable. Western Australia will have the greatest need for rain soon.

            Canada’s
harvest of canola, corn, flax and soybeans will advance well over the next two weeks, although some crop damage occurred from early month frost and freezes in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Freezes also occurred this past weekend in southeastern Canada, but that
was not harmful to unharvested crops.

            Europe
and the western CIS summer grain and oilseed crops are being sped to maturity by dry and warm weather, but rain falling in Western Europe this week will reverse that trend temporarily slowing harvest progress.

            Overall,
weather will have a bearish bias on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS:  Soil moisture in the central and southwestern Great Plains will be decreasing over the next two weeks and that might be good for planting, but rain will soon be needed to induce germination, emergence and
establishment.

            Rain
in western and central Europe this week will prove beneficial to raising soil moisture for wheat, barley and rye planting and establishment. Dryness in southwestern Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, southeastern Europe, Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan
over the next two weeks will be of great concern due to drought and a huge need for planting moisture. Improved rainfall will come to some of these drier areas next month.

            China
early winter crop planting prospects are looking very good and the same is true for India.

            Argentina’s
rainfall later this week will benefit winter crops, although for some areas in Cordoba the rain will be falling too late to seriously improve production potentials. Brazil’s wheat crop is expected to continue developing well over the next couple of weeks.

            Southeastern
Canada’s wheat region is favorably moist for winter wheat planting and fieldwork will increase over the next couple of weeks, although some rain will occur periodically.

            Overall,
weather today will likely maintain a neutral to slightly bearish bias to market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR COTTON: Additional rain in the Delta this week will delay cotton harvesting and could raise a little concern over fiber quality. Some rain late this week in the southeastern states will return rain to areas recovering from Tropical Storm
Sally and may further raise the risk of boll rot. West Texas, however, will be dry as will most of the far western U.S. crop areas.

            Rain
in Spain during the weekend may have briefly disrupted crop maturation and harvesting, but some improving weather is forthcoming.

            Cotton
maturation and harvesting is advancing well in Central Asia, Pakistan and northern India. Some crop defoliation and harvesting are occurring in Xinjiang, China, as well and weather conditions will likely remain favorable, despite some coming frost in the northeast
late this week.

            Cotton
in eastern China needs greater drying, but seasonal rainfall is diminishing and weather in October will be much better for harvesting.

            Eastern
Australia still needs rain, despite some moisture occurring during the weekend and a little more coming up.

            India’s
harvest will improve over the next few weeks as the annual dry season includes a larger part of the production region. Recent harvest weather was mostly good in far northern India and Pakistan.

            Drying
is needed in west-central Africa cotton areas and some of that should come in the next few weeks.

           
Argentina planting will slowly increase over the coming week as more of the region gets rain and then experiences drier weather. The same is expected in some center south Brazil cotton production areas.

            Planting
in South Africa begins late next month and greater rain will soon be needed.

            Overall,
weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Sept. 21:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data