FI Morning Grain Comments 09/16/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Higher
trade soybean complex and grains.  US weather is favorable.  The track of the hurricane shifted southeast. Lowest offer for Egypt seeking wheat is $228.43/ton.  USD was down 20 points earlier and WTI crude oil up about $0.84. 
Malaysia
is on holiday.  APK-Inform sees 2020-21 sunflower oil exports at 6.17 million tons, down from 6.63MMT in 2019-20.  Production of sunflower seed was projected at 15.53 million tons, down from 16.10 million in 2019.  South Korea’s KOCOPIA passed on 60,000 tons
of corn.  Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of corn from Brazil. Turkey bought around 444,000 tons of wheat. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

TROPICAL
COMMENTS

• Hurricane
  Sally was moving inland this morning and was expected to produce more flooding rain, strong wind speeds and damage to crops and property
• Rain
  totals have already ranged from 16 to more than 20 inches over the past two days from Fort Walton Beach, Florida to the Mobile Bay
• Wind
  speeds have reached 92 mph near the naval station southeast of Oyster Bay, Alabama and 81 mph at Pine Forest High School in the same region
• Peak
  speeds of 55 to 81 mph have common from Fort Walton, Beach, Florida to Mobile, Alabama
• Tropical
  storm force wind was occurring in southern Alabama as well
• Coastal
  flooding from both the storm surge and two days of rainfall has been significant across many of these same areas
• At
  0800 CDT, the center of the sally was located near 30.5 north, 87.6 west or 20 miles north northeast of Gulf Shores, Alabama with peak wind speeds near the center of the storm of 90 mph and movement north northeasterly at 3 mph
• Hurricane
  Sally will is still expected to slowly accelerate to the northeast over the next two days reaching southeastern North Carolina Saturday
• In
  the storm’s wake will be 4.00 to 10.00 inches of additional rain from western parts of the Florida Panhandle through central and interior southeastern Alabama to northern Georgia and 3.00  to 6.00 inches in portions of the Carolinas
  
• Flooding
  is expected in many areas, but it will be most serious from central through southern Alabama and in the Florida Panhandle
• Wind
  speeds will continue to reach damaging levels this morning from western parts of the Florida Panhandle into south-central Alabama and then gradually lighten as the storm moves farther north this afternoon and tonight
• Damage
  to crops will be greatest in Alabama and Florida’s Panhandle with cotton suffering the greatest losses
• Hurricane
  Paulette, Hurricane Teddy and Tropical Storm Vicky are over open water in the Atlantic Ocean and posing no threat to land
• Teddy
  will become a major hurricane later today and Thursday and will eventually impact Bermuda early next week as a weaker storm once again
• Vicky
  will likely dissipate by the weekend over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean
• Paulette
  will lose its tropical characteristics over the next few days, but remain a viable mid-latitude storm system over the north-central Atlantic
  
• Tropical
  wave west of Africa still has potential to develop into a tropical cyclone later this week and it will move toward the northern Leeward Islands over the coming week
• This
  system will need to be closely monitored for possible influence on North America and the Caribbean Islands next week, although there is plenty of time for the system’s potential to change
• Tropical
  disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will be wandering around off the coast of eastern Mexico the next few days and has some potential for becoming better organized over time
• Most
  likely this system will produce repetitive rainfall in eastern Mexico and in the southernmost tip of Texas for a while
• The
  system is showing signs of better organization and there will be support for development later this week
• Tropical
  Storm Noul has formed west of the Philippines in the South China Sea and has produced some beneficial rainfall in parts of the Philippines recently
• The
  storm has potential to become a weak typhoon as it moves west northwesterly across the South China Sea the next few days with landfall possible in central Vietnam Friday
• Flooding
  rainfall and strong wind speeds may impact central and northern parts of Vietnam from this storm
• Central
  Highlands crop areas will be impacted by the storm, but the most damaging properties of Noul will be to the north of the region
• Tropical
  Storm Karina remains well west of Mexico and posing no threat to land; the system will dissipate over open water this weekend

 

OTHER
WORLD WEATHER ISSUES

• Argentina
  rainfall will remain limited over the next ten days with very little potential for relief from drought conditions in the west