FI Morning Grain Comments 09/14/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

No
24-hour announcements.  StatsCan Canadian production estimates are viewed as supportive.  Prices were initially higher on the decline in the corn rating, talk of Chinese buying soybeans, higher soybean oil, and cut in the French soft wheat production by the
AgMin coupled with dry weather across the central US Great Plains. 
(7:57 am CT) WTI was 59 cents higher, USD 33 points lower, and stock markets leaning towards a higher open.  US corn conditions declined by one point and soybeans were unchanged.  However, based on our October versus final trend yield analysis and higher US
harvested area, we boosted our corn and soybean production estimates. 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

5-day

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Sept. 14:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• France
  agricultural ministry crop production estimate
• Ros
  Agro capital markets day
• Abares’
  agricultural commodities — September quarter 2021

Wednesday,
Sept. 15:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• Malaysia
  Sept. 1-15 palm oil exports
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)

Thursday,
Sept. 16:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Friday,
Sept. 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
547,943                 versus   200000-500000  range

Corn                     
138,189                 versus   250000-600000  range

Soybeans           
105,368                 versus   75000-300000                     range

 

Macros

US
CPI (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 0.5%)

US
CPI Ex-Food, Energy (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)

US
CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 5.3% (est 5.3%; prev 5.4%)

US
CPI Ex-Food, Energy (Y/Y) Aug: 4.0% (est 4.2%; prev 4.3%)

US
Real Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: -0.9% (prev -1.2%)

US
Real Avg Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: -0.9% (prevR -0.9%; prev -0.7%)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Jul: -1.5% (est -1.0%; prev 2.1%)

China
To Sell 7.38Mln Barrels Of Crude From Reserve September 24

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures are higher on technical buying and one point drop in US crop conditions.  US harvest progress could slow during the last half of this week from the tropical storm in the Gulf.  WTI crude oil is higher and USD is
sharply lower. 

·        
Both November soybeans and corn held above their 200-day MA’s so far this week. 

·        
China corn futures hit a 12-mont low. 

·        
Bloomberg) — China’s national oil reserve center has announced the trading of 7.38m barrels of oil reserve on September 24, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration says in statement.  

 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of September 09, 2021 were 138,189 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 278,294 tons previous week and compares to 939,113 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 133,446
tons, Taiwan for 4,305 tons, and Hong Kong for 318 tons.

·        
USDA export inspections were lowest in 8-1/2 years. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported.