FI Morning Grain Comments 09/11/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

USDA
announced 484,000 tons of soybeans sold under the 24-hour announcement system.  Higher trade in all major US agriculture markets this morning ahead of the USDA export sales report and S&D update amid good domestic and export demand.  In its monthly S&D update,
China’s corn production for 2020-21 was lowered by 1.8 million tons.  They seek corn imports at 7 million tons, up 2 million tons from earlier.  USD was down 14 points earlier and WTI crude oil down slightly. 
We
heard China bought at least 2 cargoes of US soybeans on Thursday for November (PNW) and December (Gulf).  They also picked up at least three Brazilian cargoes for February/March shipment.  Bunge cancelled 127 soybean meal receipts and stopped 227 soybean oil. 
Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 4 higher (7 higher for the week) and meal $3.40 higher ($3.80 higher for the week).   Malaysian palm oil was moderately lower and was down 0.85% for the week, ending two weeks of gains.  India’s August
palm oil imports fell 14 percent from a year ago to 734,351 tons.  Soybean oil imports were 394,735 tons, down 10.4 percent from last year.  Sunflower oil imports fell 31% to 158,518 tons.  SEA reported In the first 10 months of the 2019-20 marketing year
(November-October), India’s edible oil imports fell 13% to 11.2 million tons.  Germany asked China to impose limited import restrictions amid ASF rather than ban pork imports from the entire country.  Germany is EU’s largest pig producer.  South Korea banned
pork imports from Germany. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

WEATHER
ISSUES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK

• Eastern
  Australia rainfall will benefit many winter crop areas
• Rain
  is expected from South Australia into Queensland and New South Wales as well as Victoria during the second half of next week
• The
  moisture will be erratic, but still beneficial for any winter crop area impacted
• Western
  Australia will continue to dry out over the next ten days to two weeks raising concern over soil moisture in northern parts of the state where reproduction of wheat and barley is expected to begin soon if it has not already started
• Southern
  parts of Western Australia are much wetter than the north and winter crops will not be reproducing for a few more weeks
  
• La
  Nina’s evolution improves confidence in potential rain for east-central and northeastern Australia this spring and summer which may lead to greater sorghum and cotton planting and much improved sugarcane production
• South
  Africa rainfall is expected to evolve significantly in some of its eastern wheat and barley production areas during mid-week next week which will lead to much improved soil moisture for crop development and production potential
• Western
  Europe is expecting some needed rain to develop during the middle to latter part of next week; this brings moisture to France, the U.K., Spain, Portugal and eventually to parts of Germany and Italy during the second week of the forecast
  
• The
  moisture will improve winter crop planting and emergence conditions later this autumn, but will slow some summer crop maturation and harvest progress in a few areas
• Eastern
  Europe and the western CIS will be left dry including much of the already dry region from the Balkan Countries through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region, and western Kazakhstan
• Significant
  rain is needed in these areas to support winter crop planting, but the dry bias is great for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Argentina’s
  drought will not change in western crop areas through the next two weeks
• Argentina’s
  greatest rain will be in the northeastern parts of the nation during the coming week and that moisture will be good for cotton and early corn and sunseed planting
• Argentina’s
  soil moisture is still favorable for eastern and some central winter crop development, but the far west is still much too dry for normal crop development
• Brazil
  rainfall over the coming week will be greatest in the far south where wheat development and early corn planting and emergence will occur favorably
• Center
  west and center south Brazil may experience some erratic showers beginning near September 20 and continuing into late month, but the precipitation should be quite limited in coverage and intensity initially and the environment may not be ideal for early season
  soybean planting
• India’s
  rainfall is still expected to be limited in the far north over the next ten days while it falls more abundantly and frequently in other areas of the nation; some local flooding may occur from Gujarat to Madhya Pradesh and southeast to northeastern Andhra Pradesh
  and Telangana over the coming week to ten days, but no serious impact is expected on crops
• Western
  and southern Mexico and parts of Central America will receive heavy rainfall during the coming week resulting in at least some local flooding with areas from Durango and southern Sinaloa to Guerrero  being one area of significant impact and another occurring
  from Chiapas, Mexico to Honduras
• West-central
  Africa will see frequent rainfall over the next ten days, although there is some concern that this first week of the outlook will still generate only light amounts in Ivory Coast and Ghana
• Recent
  showers in these two countries have brought on some relief to dryness, but more rain is needed to support long term crop development; many areas are still considered drier than usual
• The
  longer range outlook for Ivory Coast and Ghana is still wetter than usual for October and November
• China
  will continue to experience waves of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days
• No
  area will  be left too dry and many will have need for drier weather
• Some
  delay to summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected to impact a part of northeastern China and in many areas from the Yangtze River Basin southward to the coast
• The
  best drying conditions will occur in the central Yellow River Basin
• Xinjiang,
  China weather is expected to be mostly good for this time of year with a limited rainfall pattern and mild to warm temperature regime supporting crop maturation and early harvest progress
• Mainland
  areas of Southeast Asia will experience increasing rain frequency and intensity during the next two weeks
• Late
  season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
• Philippines
  rainfall will increase over the next week to ten days bringing some welcome moisture to central and some southern areas that have been relatively dry recently
• Improving
  rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain and possible flooding expected in parts of Kalimantan and Papua New Guinea
• Pakistan
  rainfall will be limited over the next ten days which is normal for this time of year
• Tropical
  Storm Paulette will reach Bermuda late Sunday and Monday as a hurricane possibly inducing some property damage over the island
• The
  storm will turn to the northeast after passing near or over the island and that will take the system away from North America
• Tropical
  Storm Rene will remain over open water in the central Atlantic through next week and poses no threat to land
• Tropical
  disturbance near the southeastern coast of Florida will move across Florida early this weekend and will produce some heavy rain in the region
• The
  system then moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and there is a relatively good chance a tropical depression or tropical storm will evolve and it may bring heavy rain to northwestern Florida, southern Alabama and some neighboring areas – this system will
  need to be closely monitored during the weekend and next week
• Vigorous
  tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean (far from land) will intensify and organize this weekend and will be moving toward the Leeward Islands next week
• This
  system has much potential to become a significant tropical storm or hurricane and will need to be closely monitored
• Another
  tropical wave coming off the west Africa coast this weekend could impact the Cabo Verde Islands as another tropical depression or tropical storm early next week
• Canada’s
  Prairies will experience limited rainfall during the coming week and near to above average temperatures resulting in good field progress and mostly good late season crop development
• Rain
  will fall from central Alberta to central and interior southeastern Saskatchewan today into Sunday morning, but it will be a relatively narrow band of rain totals varying from 0.05 to 0.50 inch
• Ontario
  and Quebec rainfall will occur periodically over the next ten days alternating with periods of rain and sunshine; Temperatures will be seasonable
• U.S.
  temperatures in the next two weeks will trend warmer in the Great Plains and stay quite warm over the western states while seasonable readings occur in the east
  
• U.S.
  rainfall outlook will be mostly good for late season crops with a few exceptions
• Rain
  will fall frequently in the Delta through the weekend, but it may diminish early next week depending on what happens to the tropical disturbance expected in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week
• Showers
  in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt and Saturday will be followed by a welcome break from recent cold and wet weather
• Crop
  and field conditions will improve
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat area will experience good drying conditions for a while starting this weekend and lasting through much of next week
• Additional
  rain is expected in central, southern and eastern Texas next week, but some of that forecast will also be dependent upon the future of the tropical disturbance expected in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week
• Dry
  weather from the interior Pacific Northwest through the northwestern Plains and southward will be good for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Only
  one significant frontal system bringing rain is expected to move across the Great Plains and Midwest during the September 19-26 period and if that verifies good crop maturation and harvest conditions will result
• West
  Texas weather will return to normal this weekend with dry conditions expected and temperatures rising through the 70s and into the 80s followed by lows mostly in the 50s.
  
• New
  Zealand rainfall will be near to above average during the coming week and temperatures will be a little cooler than usual
• Southern
  Oscillation Index was +8.75 today and it will stay positive the remainder of this week, although some weakening will continue over the next few days

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
Sept. 11:

• (Overnight)
  China agriculture ministry’s (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• New
  Zealand food prices

MONDAY,
Sept. 14:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions report, 4pm
• Vietnam
  Customs data on exports of coffee, rice and rubber
• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• Heilongjiang
  Soy Association holds a summit in Harbin
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• International
  Palm Oil Sustainability Conference, Sept 14-22
• HOLIDAYS:
  Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Venezuela

TUESDAY,
Sept. 15:

• Australia’s
  Abares releases quarterly agricultural commodities report
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for Sept. 1-15
• France’s
  agriculture ministry to publish crop estimates
• World
  Agri-Tech Innovation Summit, Sept. 15-16
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAYS:
  El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 16:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• FranceAgriMer
  supply and demand estimates
• Future
  Food-Tech conference, Sept. 17-18
• HOLIDAYS:
  Malaysia, Mexico

THURSDAY,
Sept. 17:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  total milk production for August, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Biosev
  SA 1Q 2021 earnings

FRIDAY,
Sept. 18:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales.  New crop for corn and soybeans.  Note soybean sales included a total of 2,538,200 MT in sales were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year, which ended August 31.  Therefore,
soybean export sales were well below expectations.   A total of 1,250,400 MT in corn sales were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year.  Corn export sales were also ok to poor. 

 

 

Macros

US
CPI (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (exp 0.3%; prev 0.6%)

–        
CPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (exp 0.2%; prev 0.6%)

–        
CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 1.3% (exp 1.2%; prev 1.0%)

–        
CPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Aug: 1.7% (exp 1.6%; prev 1.6%)

US
Real Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: 3.3% (prev 3.7%)

–        
Real Average Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: 3.9% (R prev 4.2%)

Canadian
Capacity Utilisation Rate Q2: 70.3% (exp 70.7%; prev 79.8%)

 

US
Briefing 11/09/20: US Futures Rise Signalling Firm End To Unsteady Week; ECB Officials Highlight Risk From Strong Euro, Nuancing Message

–        
Fed Seen Balking Again At Providing new Interest-Rate Guidance

–        
Fed’s Emergency Loan Programs Shrinking Amid Calmer Markets

–        
US GOP Skinny Bill On Stimulus Aid Blocked By Senate Democrats

–        
China Takes Unspecified Retaliatory Measures on US Diplomats

–        
China And India Deescalate By ‘Disengaging Troops’ In Himalayas

–        
FDA Setting Higher Bar for Emergency Covid Vaccine Clearance

–        
ECB Officials Highlight Risk From Strong Euro, Nuancing Message

–        
Eurozone Ministers To Open Talks On Successor To ECB’s Mersch

–        
Brexit Talks Fray, Growing Chances Of Chaotic UK-EU Trade Split

–        
UK July Economic Growth Surges But Clouds Gather Over Brexit

–        
UK Chancellor Urged To Extend UK Job Support, Help Indebted

–        
UK Agrees Post-Brexit Trade Deal With Japan, Boosting Johnson

 

Overnight
Block Trades:

-CV
370c bot 1,500x paid 5.75-6.25

-CV
375c bot 1,500x paid 4.0-4.5

-CV
365p sold 1,000x at 6.375

-CV
360p sold 800x at 4.125

-CV
360-350ps sold 1,000x at 2.625

-CZ
400c bot live 2,500x paid 5.0-5.5

 

-Soybean
Week 2 980/ 960p 1×2 traded 4.5-4.75, 500×1,000

-Soybean
Week 3 1000c bot 750x paid 8.0-.75

 

*Blocks:

-BOZ
36.0c 500x .410

-BOX
33.0p 500x .770

-BOZ
30.0p 400x .165

 

Corn.

• CBOT
  corn is higher on prospects for an increase in US pig units if demand shifts from the EU to North America.  Given the price action over the last week and option flow seen in soy and corn, the market may be expecting a bullish report.  We think there could
  be a buy the rumor/sell the fact scenario if yields come in at or above expectations. 
  
• In
  its monthly S&D update, China’s corn production for 2020-21 was lowered by 1.8 million tons to 265MMT.  They seek corn imports at 7 million tons, up 2 million tons from earlier. 
  
• Germany
  asked China to impose limited import restrictions amid ASF rather than ban pork imports from the entire country.  Germany is EU’s largest pig producer.  South Korea banned pork imports from Germany. 
  
• Ukraine
  2020-21 to date grain exports are down 11 percent to 9.2 million tons from 10.3 million a year earlier.  Corn exports are running at 608,000 tons, down from 1.9 million a year earlier. Ukraine started their corn harvest season.  The grain crop is expected
  to fall to 68 million tons from 75.1 million tons in 2019.  UAC: Ukraine corn crop 36MMT, down from 35.3MMT. 
  
• Agritel
  Sees Ukraine’s 2020 Corn Crop Falling to 33.5m Tons.
• Ukraine’s
  Economy Ministry cut its forecast for corn crop to 33m tons
• French
  corn crop conditions are down 1 point to 60 percent as of Sep 7 from the previous week and compare to 60 percent year earlier.  1 percent of the corn crop had been harvested. 
  
• US
  EIA weekly ethanol production increased a larger than expected 19,000 barrels and stocks decreased a large 889,000 barrels.  A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 5,000 and stocks to increase 16,000 barrels to 20.898 million.
  
• US
  EIA weekly ethanol production increased a larger than expected 19,000 barrels and stocks decreased a large 889,000 barrels.  A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 5,000 and stocks to increase 16,000 barrels to 20.898 million.
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  November soybeans
  are sharply higher and set to increase five consecutive weeks.  US export demand was very good this week.  November contract hit its highest level since April 2018.  On a rolling basis, soybeans are highest since June 2018.  Soybean meal is again higher on
  anticipation for US feed demand may increase as countries place ban German pork imports.  
  
• USDA
  announced 484,000 tons of soybeans sold under the 24-hour announcement system. 
  

• India’s
  August palm oil imports fell 14 percent from a year ago to 734,351 tons.  Soybean oil imports were 394,735 tons, down 10.4 percent from last year.  Sunflower oil imports fell 31% to 158,518 tons.  SEA reported In the first 10 months of the 2019-20 marketing
  year (November-October), India’s edible oil imports fell 13% to 11.2 million tons.
• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 4 higher (7 higher for the week) and meal $3.40
  higher ($3.80 higher for the week). 
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were about unchanged to 1 euro higher, rapeseed oil 1 lower in the benchmark positions, and Rotterdam meal mostly 2-5 euros higher from this time previous session. 
  
• We
  heard China bought at least 2 cargoes of US soybeans on Thursday for November (PNW) and December (Gulf).  They also picked up at least three Brazilian cargoes for February/March shipment. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 84 cents per bushel (90 previous) and compares to 80 cents a week ago and 77 cents around this time last year.
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil was moderately lower.  Down 0.85% for the week, ending two weeks of gains.
  

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Results
  awaited: Algeria seeks up to 30,000 tons of soybean meal on September 9 for first half October shipment. 
  
• USDA
  24-hour announced private exporters reported the following activity:
• Export
  sales of 222,000 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 262,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  is higher on good global import demand, higher corn and lower USD. 
• Paris
  December wheat was down 0.50 at 189.25 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

• Tunisia’s
  purchased 25,000 tons of soft wheat at $240.89 a ton c&f and 75,000 tons of durum wheat at $317.68 a ton c&f each for two 25,000 consignments of durum and $314.69 for a third consignment.
• Results
  awaited:  Saudi Arabia SAGO seeks 715,000 tons of 11 and 12.5 percent wheat for delivery between November and January. 
  
• Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat by October 13.
• Jordan
  seeks 60,000 tons of wheat on Sep 16 for LH October shipment.
• Turkey
  seeks 500,000 tons of milling wheat (min 12.5%) on September 15 for Sep 23-Oct 16 shipment. 
  
• Ethiopia
  seeks about 80,000 tons of milling wheat on Sept. 30.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 113,999 tons of rice on Sep 16 for arrival in South Korea between Jan. 31, 2021, and June 30, 2021.

·        
Syria is in for 39,400 tons of white rice on September 30.