FI Morning Grain Comments 09/11/20

PDF attached

Morning. 

USDA
announced 484,000 tons of soybeans sold under the 24-hour announcement system.  Higher trade in all major US agriculture markets this morning ahead of the USDA export sales report and S&D update amid good domestic and export demand.  In its monthly S&D update,
China’s corn production for 2020-21 was lowered by 1.8 million tons.  They seek corn imports at 7 million tons, up 2 million tons from earlier.  USD was down 14 points earlier and WTI crude oil down slightly. 
We
heard China bought at least 2 cargoes of US soybeans on Thursday for November (PNW) and December (Gulf).  They also picked up at least three Brazilian cargoes for February/March shipment.  Bunge cancelled 127 soybean meal receipts and stopped 227 soybean oil. 
Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 4 higher (7 higher for the week) and meal $3.40 higher ($3.80 higher for the week).   Malaysian palm oil was moderately lower and was down 0.85% for the week, ending two weeks of gains.  India’s August
palm oil imports fell 14 percent from a year ago to 734,351 tons.  Soybean oil imports were 394,735 tons, down 10.4 percent from last year.  Sunflower oil imports fell 31% to 158,518 tons.  SEA reported In the first 10 months of the 2019-20 marketing year
(November-October), India’s edible oil imports fell 13% to 11.2 million tons.  Germany asked China to impose limited import restrictions amid ASF rather than ban pork imports from the entire country.  Germany is EU’s largest pig producer.  South Korea banned
pork imports from Germany. 

Weather
and Crop Progress

WEATHER
ISSUES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK

• Eastern
  Australia rainfall will benefit many winter crop areas
• Rain
  is expected from South Australia into Queensland and New South Wales as well as Victoria during the second half of next week
• The
  moisture will be erratic, but still beneficial for any winter crop area impacted
• Western
  Australia will continue to dry out over the next ten days to two weeks raising concern over soil moisture in northern parts of the state where reproduction of wheat and barley is expected to begin soon if it has not already started
• Southern
  parts of Western Australia are much wetter than the north and winter crops will not be reproducing for a few more weeks
  
• La
  Nina’s evolution improves confidence in potential rain for east-central and northeastern Australia this spring and summer which may lead to greater sorghum and cotton planting and much improved sugarcane production
• South
  Africa rainfall is expected to evolve significantly in some of its eastern wheat and barley production areas during mid-week next week which will lead to much improved soil moisture for crop development and production potential
• Western
  Europe is expecting some needed rain to develop during the middle to latter part of next week; this brings moisture to France, the U.K., Spain, Portugal and eventually to parts of Germany and Italy during the second week of the forecast
  
• The
  moisture will improve winter crop planting and emergence conditions later this autumn, but will slow some summer crop maturation and harvest progress in a few areas
• Eastern
  Europe and the western CIS will be left dry including much of the already dry region from the Balkan Countries through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region, and western Kazakhstan
• Significant
  rain is needed in these areas to support winter crop planting, but the dry bias is great for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Argentina’s
  drought will not change in western crop areas through the next two weeks
• Argentina’s
  greatest rain will be in the northeastern parts of the nation during the coming week and that moisture will be good for cotton and early corn and sunseed planting
• Argentina’s
  soil moisture is still favorable for eastern and some central winter crop development, but the far west is still much too dry for normal crop development
• Brazil
  rainfall over the coming week will be greatest in the far south where wheat development and early corn planting and emergence will occur favorably
• Center
  west and center south Brazil may experience some erratic showers beginning near September 20 and continuing into late month, but the precipitation should be quite limited in coverage and intensity initially and the environment may not be ideal for early season
  soybean planting
• India’s
  rainfall is still expected to be limited in the far north over the next ten days while it falls more abundantly and frequently in other areas of the nation; some local flooding may occur from Gujarat to Madhya Pradesh and southeast to northeastern Andhra Pradesh
  and Telangana over the coming week to ten days, but no serious impact is expected on crops
• Western
  and southern Mexico and parts of Central America will receive heavy rainfall during the coming week resulting in at least some local flooding with areas from Durango and southern Sinaloa to Guerrero  being one area of significant impact and another occurring
  from Chiapas, Mexico to Honduras
• West-central
  Africa will see frequent rainfall over the next ten days, although there is some concern that this first week of the outlook will still generate only light amounts in Ivory Coast and Ghana
• Recent
  showers in these two countries have brought on some relief to dryness, but more rain is needed to support long term crop development; many areas are still considered drier than usual
• The
  longer range outlook for Ivory Coast and Ghana is still wetter than usual for October and November
• China
  will continue to experience waves of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days
• No
  area will  be left too dry and many will have need for drier weather
• Some
  delay to summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected to impact a part of northeastern China and in many areas from the Yangtze River Basin southward to the coast
• The
  best drying conditions will occur in the central Yellow River Basin
• Xinjiang,
  China weather is expected to be mostly good for this time of year with a limited rainfall pattern and mild to warm temperature regime supporting crop maturation and early harvest progress
• Mainland
  areas of Southeast Asia will experience increasing rain frequency and intensity during the next two weeks
• Late
  season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
• Philippines
  rainfall will increase over the next week to ten days bringing some welcome moisture to central and some southern areas that have been relatively dry recently
• Improving
  rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain and possible flooding expected in parts of Kalimantan and Papua New Guinea