FI Morning Grain Comments 09/10/20

PDF attached

Morning. 

Conab
reported the 2019-20 soybean crop at 124.84MMT, up from 120.9MMT in Aug.  Note this was expected after the agency made revisions a couple weeks ago for seven years of data.  Brazil corn was estimated at 102.5MMT vs. 102.14MMT in Aug. 
Bunge cancelled 37 meal receipts.  Malaysian palm oil was unchanged to moderately lower.  MPOB reported Aug production about 19,000 tons above expectations and stocks
90,894 tonos below an average trade guess.  AmSpec 1-10 September palm exports were 472,780 tons, up 10 percent from previous period last month. USD was down 21 points earlier and WTI crude oil down $0.50.  South Korea banned pork imports from Germany after
ASF was discovered in a wild boar in eastern Germany.  Tunisia
seeks milling wheat and durum wheat. 

Weather
and Crop Progress

CPC
calls for a 75 percent chance for La Nina conditions through the 2020 winter for the Northern Hemisphere. 

WEATHER
COMMENTS

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

• Frost
  and freezes occurred in northern and central parts of Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin Overnight as well as in extreme eastern South Dakota
• Fog
  was present in much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which helped to hold temperatures up
• Clear
  skies were noted from northwestern and west-central Minnesota  to western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming where additional frost and freezes occurred
• Extreme
  lows slipped to 26 at Alliance, Nebraska and Pine Ridge, South Dakota with numerous other readings in the upper 20s from eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska to southwestern South Dakota
• A
  few readings of 26-30 were also noted in small pocket in north-central Minnesota
• Damage
  to crops was low, but some additional impact may have occurred in western Nebraska where readings were colder today than earlier this week
• Center
  west Brazil and some center south crop areas have been advertised to receive a few showers after Sep. 20
• The
  precipitation looks to be erratic and light, but it will be closely monitored since this would be the first rain for early season soybean areas of Brazil
• Argentina’s
  weather is still unfavorable for meaningful rain in west-central parts of the nation for at least the next 10 days
• Western
  Europe still has an opportunity to receive some rain in the second week of the forecast, but the significance of that event is low
• No
  change in the dry bias was noted overnight for central or eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region western Kazakhstan or southeastern Europe
• Eastern
  Australia’s crop areas are advertised wetter in the September 18-24 period
• GFS
  model was advertising greater rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Sep 18-22 on the 00z model run and Sep 20-22 on the 06z model run, the latter of which has a better chance of verifying – confidence in this change is low
• A
  tropical wave expected to come off the west-central Africa coast this weekend may end up threatening the southeastern United States after September 20, but it is much too soon to have any confidence in the system since it has not evolved yet