PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Conab
reported the 2019-20 soybean crop at 124.84MMT, up from 120.9MMT in Aug.  Note this was expected after the agency made revisions a couple weeks ago for seven years of data.  Brazil corn was estimated at 102.5MMT vs. 102.14MMT in Aug. 
Bunge cancelled 37 meal receipts.  Malaysian palm oil was unchanged to moderately lower.  MPOB reported Aug production about 19,000 tons above expectations and stocks
90,894 tonos below an average trade guess.  AmSpec 1-10 September palm exports were 472,780 tons, up 10 percent from previous period last month. USD was down 21 points earlier and WTI crude oil down $0.50.  South Korea banned pork imports from Germany after
ASF was discovered in a wild boar in eastern Germany. 
Tunisia
seeks milling wheat and durum wheat. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

CPC
calls for a 75 percent chance for La Nina conditions through the 2020 winter for the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

 

WEATHER
COMMENTS

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • Frost
    and freezes occurred in northern and central parts of Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin Overnight as well as in extreme eastern South Dakota
    • Fog
      was present in much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which helped to hold temperatures up
    • Clear
      skies were noted from northwestern and west-central Minnesota  to western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming where additional frost and freezes occurred
      • Extreme
        lows slipped to 26 at Alliance, Nebraska and Pine Ridge, South Dakota with numerous other readings in the upper 20s from eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska to southwestern South Dakota
      • A
        few readings of 26-30 were also noted in small pocket in north-central Minnesota
    • Damage
      to crops was low, but some additional impact may have occurred in western Nebraska where readings were colder today than earlier this week
  • Center
    west Brazil and some center south crop areas have been advertised to receive a few showers after Sep. 20
    • The
      precipitation looks to be erratic and light, but it will be closely monitored since this would be the first rain for early season soybean areas of Brazil
  • Argentina’s
    weather is still unfavorable for meaningful rain in west-central parts of the nation for at least the next 10 days
  • Western
    Europe still has an opportunity to receive some rain in the second week of the forecast, but the significance of that event is low
  • No
    change in the dry bias was noted overnight for central or eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region western Kazakhstan or southeastern Europe
  • Eastern
    Australia’s crop areas are advertised wetter in the September 18-24 period
  • GFS
    model was advertising greater rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Sep 18-22 on the 00z model run and Sep 20-22 on the 06z model run, the latter of which has a better chance of verifying – confidence in this change is low
  • A
    tropical wave expected to come off the west-central Africa coast this weekend may end up threatening the southeastern United States after September 20, but it is much too soon to have any confidence in the system since it has not evolved yet

 

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Eastern
    Australia will receive some needed rain next week to support reproduction in Queensland and northern New South Wales
    • Some
      rain fell in northern New South Wales Wednesday with amounts of 0.05 to 0.67 inch
      • The
        precipitation will shift into southeastern Queensland today
    • South
      Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales will receive some rain during the weekend and early to mid-week next week
    • A
      boost in rainfall is expected in eastern Australia Sep. 17-20 with some follow up precipitation expected Sep 21-22
      • The
        moisture will be ideal for raising topsoil moisture for better reproductive and pre-reproductive conditions for winter crops in New South Wales and Queensland
        • Some
          of the rain in Queensland may come a little too late to restore production potentials after recent dryness and frost and freezes
    • South
      Australia topsoil moisture will improve easing long term dryness
  • Western
    Australia may trend drier over the next couple of weeks while rain increases in eastern parts of the nation
  • North
    America weather is expected get back to a more normal weather pattern this weekend and next week
    • Less
      rain and warmer temperatures will impact the central United States
    • Upper
      level low pressure center over central U.S. Rocky Mountains today will be ejected to the western Great Lakes region Friday through the weekend sending another wave of rain across the central and northeastern Plains and western Corn Belt in addition to that
      which is present in the western Corn Belt today
    • Drier
      weather will follow the upper level low pressure center and weekend precipitation so that much of the central and eastern United States experience nearly a week of limited rainfall and seasonably warm temperatures
    • Canada’s
      Prairies will see near to above average temperatures and restricted rainfall, although not totally dry
    • Central
      and eastern Midwest dryness and warmth recently will give way to some rainfall and cooling briefly Friday into the weekend, but resulting rainfall from the northern Delta to Indiana will continue very limited
  • West
    Texas temperatures will slowly return to normal over the next few days rising from the 50s today to the 70s Friday and the 80s during the weekend and early next week
    • Boll
      lock may have occurred to many cotton crops from western Texas to southwestern Kansas, but that cannot be determined until warming returns Friday through next week
      • Boll
        opening will likely resume in the areas least impacted by recent cold