FI Morning Grain Comments 09/03/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
September 3, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Higher
trade in the US soybean complex this morning as prices continue to rebound.  Palm was again higher, by 69MYR overnight and cash increased $15/ton to $1,100/ton.  Corn is lower on lack of fresh news and plummeting spot corn basis offers out of the Gulf.  Wheat
is higher on expectations for Russia to slow wheat sales next week.  Overall news is light.  Expect positioning today ahead of the long holiday weekend. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 3, 2021

• Three
  monsoon depressions are advertised to move from the Bay of Bengal across central India during the coming ten days to two weeks.
• Confidence
  in the first two events is high, but the last one may not verify.
• Heavy
  rain and flooding could evolve from each storm starting next week and lasting into mid-month.
  
• Gujarat,
  which has been dry, will get additional rain from both events.
• Europe
  weather will be drier biased for a while, although some showers are expected.
  
• Cool
  conditions will impact western Russia, northern Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States in this coming week with some frost possible Monday if the skies can clear off enough.
  
• A
  new tropical cyclone will form near Guam this weekend and will threaten Japan or Korea late next week or into the following weekend.
  
• Argentina
  will get periodic rainfall, but parts of Cordoba and northwestern parts of the nation will not get much moisture.
  
• Southern
  Brazil will receive periodic rain as well.
• In
  the U.S. significant rain fell from Kansas to and northwestern Missouri to the Dakotas and Minnesota Thursday and overnight and after Saturday morning the western Corn Belt will be drier biased for a while.
  
• Hot
  weather is expected late next week into the following weekend in the central U.S. 
  
• A
  weak tropical wave may move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week bringing the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to a part of the U.S. central Gulf of Mexico coast during mid- to late week
• The
  European forecast model is slower developing this system and does so over the western Gulf of Mexico with a tropical cyclone evolving Wednesday or Thursday before moving to the upper Texas coast late next week and into the following weekend
• Hurricane
  Larry should stay over open water in the Atlantic Ocean through the weekend and into early next week. 
• Limited
  rainfall is expected in northeastern New South Wales and Queensland winter crop areas late this weekend into early next week and then dry weather will dominate the remainder of next week
• Frost
  and a couple of freezes occurred in portions of Western Australia this morning burning back some wheat and barley ahead of reproduction
• The
  impact should have been low, but a few of the more advanced crops could have been negatively impacted
  
• Frost
  and freezes will occur more significantly in western Canada and the northwestern U.S. Plains after mid-month

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Sept. 3:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Monday,
Sept. 6:

• CNGOIC
  monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
• Malaysia
  Sept. 1-5 palm oil exports
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  U.S., Canada

Tuesday,
Sept. 7:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; spring wheat harvest, 4pm
• China’s
  first batch of August trade data, including imports of soy, meat and edible oils
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Australia’s
  September crop report
• U.S.
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Sept. 8:

• Meat
  Atlas 2021 – facts and figures about the animals people eat
• Canada’s
  StatsCan releases data on wheat, barley, canola and durum stockpiles

Thursday,
Sept. 9:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• UkrAgroConsult
  Black Sea oilseed conference

Friday,
Sept. 10:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, noon
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on August stockpiles, output and exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Sept. 1-10 palm oil export data
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

StoneX
Crop Survey Results

Corn
Production 14998

Yield
177.5

Soybean
Production 4409

Soybean
yield 50.8

 

Macros

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Aug: 235K (est 733K; prevR 1053K; prev 943K)

US
Unemployment Rate Aug: 5.2% (est 5.2%; prev 5.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Aug: 0.6% (est 0.3%; prevR 0.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: 4.3% (est 3.9%; prevR 4.1%; prev 4.0%)

US
Change In Private Payrolls Aug: 243K (est 610K; prevR 798K; prev 703K)

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Aug: 37K (est 25K; prevR 52K; prev 27K)

US
Average Weekly Hourly All Employees Aug: 34.7 (est 34.8; prevR 34.7; prev 34.8)

US
Labor Force Participation Rate Aug: 61.7% (est 61.8%; prev 61.7%)

US
Underemployment Rate Aug: 8.8% (prev 9.2%)

Canadian
Labor Productivity (Q/Q) Q2: 0.6% (est 1.6%; prev -1.7%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is lower on lack of fresh news and plummeting spot corn basis offers out of the Gulf.  Overall news is light.  Expect positioning today ahead of the long holiday weekend. 

·        
Spot Gulf corn and soybean basis tanked this week in large part from hurricane Ida. 

·        
France reported corn conditions as of Aug. 30 steady at 91% good or excellent.

·        
Brazil is investigating a possible mad cow case. 

·        
CME lowered corn margins 13%.

 

Export
developments.

·        
China will auction off 111,321 tons of imported US corn and 13,180 tons of imported Ukrainian corn on September 3. 

 

U
of I:  Using Preliminary August FSA Data to Project Final 2021 Planted Acreage for Corn and Soybeans

Irwin,
S. “Using Preliminary August FSA Data to Project Final 2021 Planted Acreage for Corn and Soybeans.” farmdoc daily (11):128, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 2, 2021.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/09/using-preliminary-august-fsa-data-to-project-final-2021-planted-acreage-for-corn-and-soybeans.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=using-preliminary-august-fsa-data-to-project-final-2021-planted-acreage-for-corn-and-soybeans

 

CIF
barge corn and soybean basis

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Higher trade in the US soybean complex this morning as prices continue to rebound.  Palm was again higher, by 69MYR overnight and cash increased $15/ton to $1,100/ton.  We are hearing China was in again buying US soybeans. 

·        
Bunge (Decatur, IN) cancelled 98 soybean oil registrations.  SBO registrations stand at 300. 

·        
Argentina’s farming associates are exploring a potential strike over the government extending limits on beef exports. 

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 20 points higher (353 higher for the week to date) and meal $4.90 higher ($10.70 for the week).

·        
Malaysian palm oil

·        
China cash crush margins were last positive 115 cents on our analysis (110 previous) versus 121 cents late last week and 80 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  reported private exporters sold 130,000 tons of soybean to China.
• Yesterday
  Egypt’s GASC bought 10,000 tons of soyoil and 19,000 tons of sunflower for arrival between Oct. 20 and Nov. 5.  The soyoil was purchased at $1,310 a ton c&f.  The sunflower oil was purchased at $1,240 a ton c&f.  In a separate local tender, they bought 34,000
  ton of Egyptian-produced soyoil (20,550 Egyptian pounds) and passed on local of sunflower oil for delivery in the same period.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is mostly higher on expectations for Russia to slow wheat sales next week. 

·        
The USD was 16 points lower at the time this was written. 

·        
Russia increased their export tax on wheat to 46.5 USD/ton for the September 8-14 period from 39.40/ton September 1-7, highest weekly tax since at least early June. 

·        
The Russian Ruble was up about 1% from a week ago as of early Friday morning. 

·        
France harvested 99% of the soft wheat crop by Aug. 30 compared with 96% the previous week.

·        
December Paris wheat was down 0.25 euros at 243.50. 

·        
Argentina saw very good rains over the past day across the heart of the wheat belt, benefiting the crop. 

·        
Ukraine exported 9.14 million tons of grain so far in the 2021-22 July-June season versus 8.04 million at the same point a year earlier, according to the AgMin.  This includes nearly 5 million tons of wheat, 2.84 million tons
of barley and 1.27 million tons of corn.

·        
Kazakhstan is about 50 percent harvested for summer grains.  Ukraine started their corn harvest. 

 

Russian
export taxes via Reuters

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Taiwan bought 48,875 tons of various class US wheat for October 15-Novmeber 1 shipment. 

·        
Turkey seeks 245,000 tons of animal feed barley on September 7 for Sep 15-Oct 8 shipment. 

·        
Pakistan seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on September 7 for October through November shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat, set to close September 8 for late December through February 14 shipment. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• South
  Korea seeks 42,200 tons of rice for arrival in South Korea between February 28 and April 2022.  20,000 tons of that is of US origin, rest optional .