FI Morning Grain Comments 09/02/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Soybeans,
corn and wheat are under pressure from a reversal in the USD and improvement in overnight rainfall for the heart of the US.

 

Rains
last night reached a little further north and east than the trade had anticipated, starting prices lower this morning. The WCB continues to get missed though. Yesterday’s crush report for July came in better than expected with a 184.5MM bu crush and oil stocks
were slightly less than expected at 2124. 100 oil receipts were cancelled last night by Bunge Decatur and Solae Gibson City, 50 each. 360 meal were recirculated last night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

NORTH
AMERICA

• Cooling
  advertised for next week was much less aggressive today relative to Tuesday’s forecast model runs and the change seems to have been needed
• Sunday
  will bring some frost to Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan Canada
• Monday
  will generate similar conditions in northeastern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba with a few light freezes possible in the northernmost crop areas
• Tuesday
  will bring frost and freezes to the eastern Canada Prairies possible ending the growing season for some areas and possibly pushing some frosty conditions into the northwestern Plains
• Wednesday
  of next week will bring some frost potential to western Nebraska and immediate neighboring areas as well as a few areas in the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. A few freezes cannot be ruled out for the eastern Dakotas, the northwest half of Minnesota and possibly
  in a couple of western Nebraska locations, but most other temperatures will be above the damage threshold
• Most
  of today’s models are quick in bringing back warmer air to North America late next week and into the following weekend
• Rainfall
  was increased from eastern Kansas through Missouri to the Michigan and southern Wisconsin early next week ahead of the mid-week cold
• Some
  of this increase was overdone
• The
  06z GFS model reduced rainfall in the central Plains for Tuesday and some reduction was needed
• Rain
  was also increased in western Tennessee and Kentucky for mid-week next week while some of the heavy rain suggested for northeastern Texas over the next several days was reduced
  
• The
  increase was overdone, but less rain in Texas was needed
• Rain
  was increased from eastern Iowa to Wisconsin during mid-week next week
• The
  increase was overdone
• Rain
  was increased in southern Alberta and central Montana Sep 12-14
• This
  was overdone
• Rain
  from Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to Pennsylvania and New England was shifted farther to the east Sep 12-14
• The
  change was needed
• Showers
  were increased in the northern Plains and parts of Canada’s Prairies Sep 15-16
• The
  increase was overdone
• Rain
  in the interior southeastern states was reduced Sep. 15-16
• The
  change was needed

 

World
Weather, Inc. would not be surprised to see a second shot of cool air put back into the models for a little later next week. It seems that the cold episode ends too quickly given the environment in which it evolves from.  The rainfall increase in the Midwest
early to mid-week next week may be a little overdone, although some increase in rainfall was needed relative to yesterday’s forecasts.  Too much moisture was returned to the northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies during the second week of the outlook.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

• 06z
  GFS model run reduced rain from Cordoba and southern Santa Fe into La Pampa and Buenos Aires Sep 13-14; Rain was also reduced in Entre Rios Sep 15
• This
  change was badly needed as the previous model run was much too wet